Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Thank you for your continued support! Today we’re seeing hotel weakness, Trump proposing a 50-year mortgage, and AI power demand driving record infrastructure investment.

⚡ The $7T AI Power Crunch
JPMorgan projects a $5T–$7T surge in global data center spending as AI drives one of the largest infrastructure buildouts in history, and it sees hyperscalers filling a $1.4T funding gap with $1.5T in private credit, bonds, and government capital. Duke Energy and Xcel Energy are exploring private credit for $87B and $60B grid projects to meet soaring data-center-driven electricity demand, while power delays tied to grid constraints are already leaving Santa Clara campuses vacant through 2028.

🏨 Hotel Demand Weakens
Hotel occupancy fell 1.5% YoY in Q3 as supply growth outpaced demand, keeping nationwide levels below 2019. RevPAR slipped 1.4% despite steady room rates, with St. Louis leading gains and hurricane-recovery markets like Houston and New Orleans cooling.

🏠 Trump’s 50-Year Mortgage
Trump’s proposed 50-year mortgage aims to boost affordability by reducing monthly payments for buyers. Critics, however, argue that it would inflate lifetime interest costs and slow equity gains, offering short-term relief but long-term financial strain for homeowners.

30Y Mortgage: 6.34% (+2 bps)

10Y Treasury Yield: 4.12% (-1 bps) 

WSJ Prime Rate: 7.25%

FTSE NAREIT Index: 767.66 (-0.22%) 

30-day SOFR Average: 4.16%

Fed officials split on more rate cuts – St. Louis Fed’s Musalem warned further easing risks fueling inflation near 3%, while San Francisco’s Daly signaled openness to cuts as labor demand cools and AI boosts productivity (Reuters)

U.S. consumer goods inflation slows in October – OpenBrand data showed prices for durable and personal goods rose just 0.22%, down from 0.48% in September, as merchants increased discounting and tempered price hikes amid weaker demand (Bloomberg)

Insight: A weaker consumer helps cool inflation because softer demand leaves retailers unable to raise prices even if tariffs and higher costs pressure their margins. This trend, along with a softer job market, strengthens the case for rate cuts

Commercial lending surges 36% in Q3 – Office originations jumped 181% and retail doubled as property values stabilized and borrowers refinanced maturing loans, marking five straight quarters of growth (CoStar)

Yield curve steepens as long rates jump – Duration risk pressures cap rates, slows deals, widens bid-ask, and pushes capital to patient, cash-flow assets as lenders grow more selective (GlobeSt)

Four states moved to block RealPage rent-fixing settlements – Attorneys general say landlord deals like Greystar’s $50M payout are too small and fail to prevent future rent coordination (Bisnow)

NYC developers seek dialogue with Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani – Real estate leaders warn his proposed rent freeze could bankrupt rent-stabilized units but hope to collaborate on pro-development affordability policies (Reuters)

The Trump administration plans to introduce a 50-year mortgage to boost affordability – The longer term would lower monthly payments but sharply increase total interest costs and slow equity buildup (WSJ)

Trump defends proposed 50-year mortgage plan – President Trump said extending mortgages to 50 years would make homes more affordable by lowering monthly payments, though critics warn it would slow equity gains and raise lifetime interest costs (Bloomberg)

Insight: Assuming that we have a $400,000 home with a 20% down payment and a $320,000 loan at a 6.2% fixed rate, the 30-year mortgage would carry a monthly payment of about $1,959. Extending the term to 50 years would lower the payment to roughly $1,732, a decrease of $228 or about 11.6%. After 10 years, the 30-year borrower would have repaid about $50,800 in principal, compared with only $13,000 on the 50-year loan. Over the full term, total interest costs would rise from about $385,000 to $719,000, an increase of roughly 86.5%. These estimates assume the same 6.2% rate for both terms, but in reality a 50-year mortgage would likely carry a higher rate due to the added duration and credit risk, meaning total interest paid would be even greater than shown here.

VA loans help veterans buy homes 4.4 years sooner – Realtor.com and NAR found 0% down VA mortgages eliminate the biggest barrier to ownership, though usage remains low in high-cost markets like Los Angeles, New York, and San Jose (Realtor.com)

Investor homebuying slows in 2025 – Small investors made up 62.5% of all investor purchases as Q2 activity fell 2.7% YoY to 136,000 homes (GlobeSt)

Zillow faces a new class action over alleged mortgage steering – Plaintiffs claim Zillow pressured buyers to use its lending arm by rewarding agents who met loan quotas, violating federal and state consumer protection laws (Reuters)

Corporate migration fuels Sun Belt office rebound – Landlords like Cousins, Highwoods, and Piedmont report surging leasing demand in cities such as Dallas, Atlanta, and Charlotte as financial and tech firms relocate from high-cost coastal markets (CoStar)

Moroccanoil leases 40K-SF at 1185 Sixth Avenue in New York, NY – The beauty products company signed a 10-year lease with SL Green for 39,799 SF at its Midtown tower, relocating from 135 East 57th Street which is being converted to apartments (CommercialObserver)

U.S. container imports fell 7.5% YoY in October – Importers pulled back amid tariff uncertainty, with shipments from China down 16.3% and total port volumes slipping below typical peak-season levels (Reuters)

U.S. suspends port fees on Chinese ships for one year – The USTR lifted $50-per-ton docking charges on China-built vessels starting Nov. 10, following a trade agreement that also ended China’s retaliatory fees on U.S.-flag ships (FreightWaves)

Holiday traffic will surge on top retail corridors – Placer.ai expects strong December gains on Fifth Avenue, Rodeo Drive, and the Magnificent Mile as family and young adult shoppers crowd high-street stores (Placer.ai)

JPMorgan projects a $5T–$7T AI data center boom – Hyperscalers will rely on $1.5T in investment-grade bonds, private credit, and government funding to cover a $1.4T financing gap over the next five years (Bloomberg)

Duke Energy and Xcel Energy explore private credit financing for $87B and $60B infrastructure plans – The utilities are in talks with non-bank lenders to help fund grid and power-generation upgrades driven by soaring electricity demand from data centers, AI, and new industrial projects (Bloomberg)

Power delays leave Digital Realty and Stack Infrastructure’s Santa Clara, CA data centers vacant – Silicon Valley Power plans to complete $450M upgrades by 2028 as grid constraints slow AI and cloud expansion across the U.S. (Bloomberg)

Hotel occupancy declines 1.5% YoY in Q3 2025 – CBRE said supply growth of 0.9% outpaced a 0.6% dip in demand, keeping occupancy below 2019 levels across all location types (CBRE)

RevPAR falls 1.4% YoY in Q3 2025 – Average daily rate rose just 0.1%, with St. Louis posting the strongest growth at 13% and Houston and New Orleans lagging due to last year’s hurricane-relief surge (CBRE)

Lodging alternatives outperform hotels in Q3 2025 – CBRE reported demand for short-term rentals and cruise lines rose 30% and 14% from 2019 levels, continuing to outpace traditional hotel demand (CBRE)

U.S. life sciences vacancy rate rises to 23.4% in Q3 2025 – CBRE said new speculative deliveries lifted vacancies as rents fell to $70.42 per SF and leasing dropped 15% QoQ despite modest positive absorption (CBRE)

Abacus Capital Group secures $77.5M construction loan for multifamily project Arbor House in Palm Beach Gardens, FL – Kennedy Wilson and Fairfax Financial provided the four-year, floating-rate financing for the 302-unit multifamily project (CommercialObserver)

Triple Five Group extends $1.4B mortgage for Mall of America in Minneapolis, MN – The Ghermezian family added new equity and collateral to secure a four-year loan extension for the 5.6M-SF retail complex, its second restructuring since 2020 (TheRealDeal)

IMT Capital secures $625M refinancing from Freddie Mac for multifamily portfolio – The fixed-rate loans refinance eight multifamily properties across San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Atlanta, and Nashville (IREI)

Deutsche Bank provides $50M refinancing for The Royal Ledges Apartments in Hyde Park, NY – Lexington Property Group secured the CMBS loan arranged by Arrow Real Estate Advisors for the 272-unit multifamily complex located three miles from the FDR Library (CommercialObserver)

Blackstone secures $3.5B CMBS refinancing for 10 QTS data centers – The portfolio spans sites in Atlanta, GA, Dallas, TX, and Norfolk, VA as Blackstone expands its 3GW QTS platform amid a surge in data center securitizations (Bisnow)

Pacific Oak REIT explores sale amid financial distress – The nontraded REIT faces $500M in near-term debt and bondholder lawsuits and holds mostly Class B offices, mid-market apartments, and one hotel across secondary and Sunbelt markets (Bisnow)

Seminole Real Estate Fund acquires 249-unit multifamily community The Raleigh at Sloan’s Lake in Denver, CO for $125.6M – Hines sold the 2020-built property for over $500K per unit, reflecting strong investor demand for high-quality Denver assets (ConnectCRE)

Hines acquires Left Bank at K Station multifamily tower in Chicago, IL for $151M – The Houston-based firm bought the 37-story, 451-unit apartment building from PGIM Real Estate, in Chicago’s second-largest multifamily sale of 2025 (TheRealDeal)

CMBS distress rate rises to 11.4% in October, nearing record high – CRED iQ data shows office leading distress at 17.5%, followed by hotels at 10.4% and multifamily at 10.3%, as maturing loans and hybrid work continue to pressure the market (CommercialObserver)

Fannie Mae sues Lurin Capital over $77M multifamily loan default in Houston, TX – The lender alleged Lurin stopped payments and allowed the 734-unit Latitude 2976 apartment complex to deteriorate, seeking a court-appointed receiver (TheRealDeal)