Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Thank you for your continued support! Today we’re seeing housing remain under pressure, retail sales finish 2025 in positive territory but lose momentum late in the year, and AI expand into property taxes and loan workflows.

🏠 Housing Market Stays Under Pressure

Housing stocks fell after President Trump offered little new housing policy beyond restricting investor purchases and Lowe’s issued cautious 2026 guidance; the S&P homebuilder index fell as much as 5.2%. Lowe’s is guiding to flat to low single digit comparable sales growth in 2026 and said elevated mortgage rates and the lock in effect are limiting housing turnover, which is keeping home improvement demand subdued.

🛍️ Retail Growth Slows As Consumers Pull Back

Retail sales ended 2025 up 3.7%, with foot traffic up 1.8%, but momentum slowed sharply in the back half of the year as shoppers became more cautious and promotion driven; off price discount retailer TJ Maxx and Marshalls parent TJX Cos forecast annual sales and profit below expectations due to strained discretionary spending as consumers pull back amid economic uncertainty. Home improvement sales fell 1.3% in 2025 despite an early traffic spikes of 28.4%, as remodeling demand cooled and discretionary budgets tightened.

🤖 AI Moves Deeper Into Property Taxes And Loan Workflows

Ownwell raised $50M to expand its AI powered property tax appeal platform, which has processed more than 1M appeals and delivers $774 in average annual savings per homeowner. In lending, Dark Matter embedded AI agents inside its Empower loan origination system to help lenders query pipelines and automate workflows, while Addy AI integrated with ICE Encompass to generate checklists and streamline document requests within the loan process.

Fed’s Schmid says inflation remains bigger problem than labor market – Fed’s large mortgage bond holdings are keeping mortgage rates 75 to 100 bps lower than otherwise (Reuters)

Life insurer CRE mortgage returns hit 8.8% in 2025, more than double 2024’s 4.29% – Appreciation gains and shorter duration boosted performance as net funding reached $6.48B in Q4, above 5-year average (Trepp)

Florida property tax repeal proposal rattles single-family suburbs in Miami-Dade – Towns reliant on homestead taxes warn of budget shortfalls and higher commercial burdens if residential levies are eliminated (Bisnow)

Housing stocks slide as Lowe’s weak outlook and limited housing policy from Trump weigh on sentiment – S&P homebuilder index fell as much as 5.2%, with builders and mortgage names dropping on affordability concerns and persistent lock-in effect (Bloomberg)

Mortgage rates fall to 6.09%, lowest since 2022, boosting refi activity – Purchase applications drop 4.7% to lowest since April as buyers remain sidelined despite 25 bps rate decline YTD (Bloomberg)

Citi commits $60B to affordable housing financing – Bank will provide construction, acquisition, rehab and permanent loans to help developers create or preserve 250,000 units over five years (Bisnow)

Rental vacancy rose to 7.2%, while homeowner vacancy sits at 1.2% – Higher rental supply is easing shelter inflation, supporting steadier mortgage rates near 6% as inventory rises without signs of distressed selling (HousingWire)

Typical first-time homebuyer age fell to 35 in 2025 from 36 in 2024 – Slight affordability improvement and lower mortgage rates near 6.6% helped bring younger buyers back, with Gen Z homeownership rising to 27.1% (Redfin)

Office employment faces structural pressure as AI-exposed firms shift hiring away from entry-level roles – Productivity gains favor experienced workers and weaken traditional feeder pipeline into office jobs (IREI)

In-N-Out Burger leases 98K SF at Nautilus Global Investment’s office building in San Dimas, CA – The deal ranks among the three largest office leases in Los Angeles County over the past year (TheRealDeal)

Apple to manufacture Mac minis at Houston campus for first time in US – Expansion includes 20K SF Advanced Manufacturing Center as part of its $600B US investment plan and broader onshoring push (Bisnow)

Port of Long Beach imports fall 13% in January to 409,818 TEUs – Tariff uncertainty and shifting trade policy drive broad-based cargo declines despite port remaining busiest in US (Bloomberg)

Retail sales rose 3.7% in 2025, while foot traffic increased 1.8% – Growth stayed positive but slowed sharply in the back half of the year as consumers became more cautious and promotion-driven  (Colliers)

Apparel and beauty led discretionary retail, with sales up 5.5% and December beauty sales peaking at 8.1% – Strong dwell times near 40 minutes signaled engaged shoppers despite uneven traffic (Colliers)

Home improvement sales fell 1.3% in 2025 despite early-year traffic spikes of up to 28.4% – Remodeling demand cooled as discretionary budgets tightened and project pipelines slowed  (Colliers)

AMC to close more theaters than it opens in 2026 - Company is pivoting from ground-up construction to capital-light lease takeovers and upgrades, continuing 15% net portfolio reduction since 2020 as it sheds underperforming locations (CoStar)

Trader Joe’s skews toward efficient mid-length trips – Highest share of 10 to 30 minute visits reflects curated assortments and mission-driven shopping (Placerai)

Aldi drives longer value-focused visits – Elevated 15 to 45 minute trips suggest shoppers trade time for savings in limited-SKU format (Placerai)

Lidl leads in extended stock-up behavior – 11.7% of visits exceed 45 minutes as broader assortment encourages full-basket trips  (Placerai)

Up to 50% of 16GW 2026 data center pipeline at risk of delay – Only 5GW is under construction across 777 announced projects as power bottlenecks and execution slippage intensify (SightlineClimate)

Trump to seek power-cost pledges from Big Tech for AI data centers – Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and others expected to commit to funding their own power supply amid rising electricity prices and voter backlash (Bloomberg)

This push on data center power costs fits into Trump’s broader affordability agenda. He is pairing affordable housing rhetoric with efforts to address rising electricity prices tied to AI infrastructure. 

AI data centers are becoming politically unpopular in local communities as residents push back against their scale, visual impact and heavy power use. Last month, Bloomberg reported that Microsoft pledged to fund its own grid infrastructure to prevent electricity costs from spilling onto ratepayers.

US data center construction fell for first time since 2020 despite AI demand – Capacity under construction dropped to 5.99 GW from 6.35 GW as permit and power delays slowed projects (Bloomberg)

Novartis to invest $280M in 46K SF radioligand therapy facility in Denton, TX – Project is part of its $23B US expansion plan and will create at least 150 jobs (Bisnow)

Nvidia surpasses $200B in annual revenue on AI boom – Forecasts $78B next quarter as data center demand continues to drive growth (FT)

TJX forecasts muted annual sales and profit as discretionary spending slows – Guides 2% to 3% comp growth below 3.5% estimates despite Q4 comps rising 5% and earnings beat (Reuters)

Lowe’s beats Q4 but strikes cautious tone on 2026 housing outlook – Guides to flat to +2% comps as CEO cites lock-in effect, high mortgage rates and tariff issues weighing on demand (CNBC)

Lowe’s expects a subdued housing backdrop in 2026 as elevated mortgage rates and slower home sales continue to limit turnover; CEO Marvin Ellison says the lock-in effect is keeping homeowners in place and delaying the normal churn that typically drives home improvement demand.

PTAD Realty’s $52.5M CMBS loan tied to 614K SF office building in Houston, TX transferred to special servicing – The Spectra Energy-leased property has sat vacant since 2022 and faces imminent monetary default ahead of 2027 maturity (TheRealDeal)

Ownwell raises $50M Series B to expand AI-powered property tax appeal platform nationwide – New National Appeals Packet automates comps, valuation analysis and filing documentation for homeowners; platform has processed 1M+ appeals and delivers $774 average annual savings per homeowner (HousingWire)

Dark Matter adds AI agents inside its Empower loan origination system, core software lenders use to process and close mortgages – Feature lets lenders deploy compliant AI tools to query pipelines and automate workflows while Dark Matter manages security and audit controls (HousingWire)

Dark Matter is enabling lenders to deploy AI agents inside its Empower loan origination system to answer pipeline questions and automate workflows using natural language; because large language models are probabilistic and can hallucinate, the platform routes every request through a managed gateway that verifies identity, enforces permissions and creates a full audit trail to maintain compliance.

Addy AI integrates with ICE Encompass to streamline loan workflows – Tool generates AI-driven checklists and trackable document requests to reduce mid-process delays and incomplete applications (HousingWire)