Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Happy Friday. Today we’re seeing the US yield curve steepen, Big Tech AI capex continue to explode, and construction automation scale quickly to address tightening labor constraints.

📉 Labor Market Softening Steepens the Curve
The U.S. Treasury yield curve is nearing its steepest level in four years after U.S. job cuts hit their highest January level since 2009 and openings fell to a five year low. Rate cut bets are pulling down short term yields, while inflation uncertainty and deficit driven Treasury issuance keep long rates elevated; mortgage rates, which track long term yields more closely, may stay higher for longer.

⚡ Big Tech AI Capex Pushes Data Center Boom
Amazon raised its 2026 AI capex projection to $200B, lifting Big Tech’s AI spending across Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft toward $650B as global data center construction accelerates 60% YoY. AI data center power supplier Forgent is a beneficiary of the boom and recently IPOed near an $8B valuation thanks to surging demand for electrical infrastructure.

🏗️ Construction Automation Scales Amid Labor Shortages
Construction AI startup Bedrock raised $270M at a $1.75B valuation from Alphabet and Nvidia to speed up data center and housing buildouts amid a labor shortage. Bedrock intends to use sensors and AI software to let heavy equipment like excavators perform repetitive site work such as clearing and grading with human supervision.

US job cuts hit highest January level since 2009 – Layoffs jumped to 108K as openings fell to a 5-year low, pointing to continued labor market softening heading into 2026 (FT)

US Treasury yield curve nears steepest level in four years – Rate-cut bets are pulling down short-term yields while inflation and deficit concerns keep long rates elevated (Bloomberg)

A weakening labor market is accelerating rate-cut bets and pulling down short-term yields. But the Fed doesn’t control the long end of the yield curve; investors demand a premium for persistent inflation uncertainty and heavy deficit-driven Treasury issuance, keeping long-term rates elevated and steepening the curve. Mortgage rates, which track long-term yields more closely than Fed policy, may stay higher for longer.

$4.5T CRE refinancing wall opens major opportunity for private credit lenders – Fortress says regional banks are pulling back as property values fall up to 40%, leaving fewer bidders for maturing loans through 2028 (Bloomberg)

CRE refinancing wall looms with $1.0T maturities due by 2026 – Securitized lenders posted the fastest QoQ growth in Q3 2025 (+3.7%) as investor demand firms; banks still anchor 36% of the $4.9T market (Trepp)

US residential solar downturn accelerates after tax credit expiry – Installations are forecast to fall 20% in 2026, driving layoffs and pushing installers toward third-party ownership models that still qualify for federal incentive (Reuters)

LA fast-tracks Olympics-related construction despite “no-build” pledge – City Council approved zoning exemptions for temporary and permanent 2028 Games facilities, raising concerns over taxpayer exposure and lasting development (Bisnow)

30-year mortgage rates tick up to 6.11% ahead of spring season – Borrowing costs remain well below last year’s ~7%, but housing demand stays sluggish until rates break closer to 6% (Bloomberg)

Housing market starts 2026 sluggish as pending sales fall 3.3% YoY – New listings are rising and mortgage payments are down ~5% YoY, but homes now take 64 days to sell as cautious buyers gain leverage (Redfin)

Active inventory rises 10% YoY in January but recovery is stalling – Listings remain 17.2% below pre-pandemic norms even as pending sales tick up 1.2% YoY on the lowest mortgage rates since 2022 (Realtor.com)

Home equity cools as equity-rich share falls to 44.6% in Q4 2025 – Seriously underwater mortgages ticked up to 3.0%, signaling a gradual return toward more normal pre-pandemic conditions (Homes.com)

Buyer financial optimism jumps to 56.9 in January as spring demand builds – Banks are easing standards for conforming mortgages and expect stronger residential loan demand in 2026, setting up a more active homebuying season (Homes.com)

Austin, TX becomes slowest major US housing market as supply surges – Homes took a record 106 days to sell in December and prices fell 4% as sellers outnumber buyers by 128% (Redfin)

Multifamily becomes dominant rental housing format in US – Large apartment buildings have overtaken single-family rentals as the main engine of renter housing (CommercialObserver)

California apartment supply peaks are still approaching in key metros – San Diego is set to deliver 7,800+ units by Q2 2026, while Los Angeles could peak at 12,300+ units in late 2026 (RealPage)

Office attendance rises 5.6% YoY to post-pandemic high in 2025 – Growth is slowing as workers cluster midweek and prioritize convenience factors like commute ease, proximity, and seasonality (Placerai)

Bay Area captured 14 of 100 largest U.S. office leases totaling 4.3M SF in 2025 as AI demand surged – Leasing concentrated in top-tier Class A buildings as premium supply tightens (TheRealDeal)

Roblox pre-leases 325K SF at Wilson Meany’s Bay Meadows office campus in San Mateo, CA – The deal expands its footprint to over 1M SF and ranks among the Peninsula’s largest post-pandemic office leases (TheRealDeal)

OpenAI expands by 223K SF at Vulcan Real Estate’s City Center Plaza office tower in Bellevue, WA – The AI firm will occupy 11 floors as Bellevue emerges as a leasing bright spot in Greater Seattle (TheRealDeal)

Northrop Grumman renews 168K SF at Drawbridge Realty’s Via Del Campo office and R&D campus near San Diego, CA – The aerospace and defense contractor extended its long-term presence at the two-building site it has occupied since 2005 (CommercialObserver)

StoneX expands by 22K SF at RXR’s 230 Park Avenue office tower in Manhattan, NY – The financial services firm increased its footprint to 95K SF across multiple floors at the Midtown property (CommercialObserver)

Bob’s Discount Furniture debuts at $2.2B valuation in cautious IPO market – Bain-backed retailer raised $331M as investors stay selective on new consumer listings (Reuters)

Pizza Hut plans to close ~250 US locations in 2026 – Yum is trimming 4% of its domestic footprint as same-store sales fall and retailers accelerate store rationalization (Bisnow)

Dutch Bros visits jump 18.1% YoY in Q4 2025 as expansion accelerates – Breakfast and morning commuter routines could help convert new-market discovery into repeat loyalty (Placerai)

Big Tech’s AI capex surge hits $650B in 2026 – Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are accelerating global data center construction by ~60% YoY, intensifying pressure on power, equipment, and labor (Bloomberg)

Amazon vows $200B 2026 AI capex focused on AWS data centers and chips – The spending surge is set to pressure near-term profits as Big Tech races to meet exploding AI compute demand (Bloomberg)

AI data center power supplier Forgent debuts near $8B valuation – IPO highlights surging demand for electrical infrastructure as hyperscalers ramp global buildouts (Reuters)

Activist pushes $1.4B listed apartment REIT Veris Residential toward potential sale – Erez Asset Management argues a transaction could deliver a 40–70% premium as buyers target discounted rental portfolios (Reuters)

Veris owns high end apartment communities concentrated in the New Jersey and New York City metro area, such as Jersey City, Hoboken, and Manhattan.

Cammeby’s International and World Wide Group default on $167M CMBS loan tied to ground lease at 300 South Riverside Plaza office tower in Chicago, IL – The loan was sent to special servicer LNR Partners as distress deepens at the 1.1M SF West Loop property (TheRealDeal) 

GBT Realty delinquent on $69M CMBS loan for Ellsworth Place retail mall in Silver Spring, MD – The 342K SF property entered special servicing as cash flow weakened and key tenants like T.J. Maxx shuttered (Bisnow)

GBT Realty just announced plans to deploy $1.3B into retail development and shopping center acquisitions.

Construction AI startup Bedrock raises $270M at $1.75B valuation – Alphabet and Nvidia are backing autonomous equipment tech aimed at speeding up data center and housing buildouts (Bisnow)

Bedrock is building autonomous construction systems that use sensors and AI software to let heavy equipment like excavators perform site work such as clearing and grading with human supervision. The system is trained by observing human operators and will allow machines to handle more of the repetitive work on their own over time.