Happy Friday 🙂Today we’re seeing affordability widen the gap between existing and new home sales, office investors step up top-tier acquisitions, and the data center buildout strain the power grid. 

🏡 New vs. Existing Home Sales
August data highlight a widening gap: existing-home sales slipped 0.2% from July while new-home sales soared 20.5%, as builder incentives like mortgage-rate buydowns and upgrades lure affordability-focused buyers. Even with mortgage rates easing to 6.26%, resale sellers holding firm on prices leave new construction better positioned to capture demand.

🏢 Office Investment Momentum
U.S. office sales jumped 42% YoY to $25.9B in H1 2025 as investors pivot from “office curious” to “office serious,” targeting top-tier properties. Falling rates and steady leasing in Class A buildings are reviving confidence, signaling that high-quality assets remain a favored bet despite hybrid work norms.

⚡ OpenAI’s Deal Spree Fuels Energy Demand
OpenAI’s new $6.5B CoreWeave contract lifts their total partnership to $22.4B, continuing a string of multibillion-dollar infrastructure deals. This rapid buildout drives soaring power demand, keeping electricity prices 31% above 2020 levels and forcing utilities to delay coal retirements while expanding nuclear generation.

30Y Mortgage: 6.39% (+2 bps) 

10Y Treasury Yield: 4.17% (+3 bps)

WSJ Prime Rate: 7.50%

FTSE NAREIT Index: 766.62 (-0.27%) 

30-day SOFR Average: 4.34%

Solid GDP growth and falling jobless claims show the economy remains relatively resilient, giving the Fed room to cut rates gradually despite some calls for faster easing.

U.S. GDP revised to 3.8% Q2 growth – Strong consumer spending and a 15% jump in AI-related software investment highlight economic resilience despite tariff headwinds (WSJ)

U.S. initial jobless claims fall to 218,000 – Down from 232,000 the prior week and below the 235,000 forecast, signaling steady labor-market conditions (WSJ)

Fed’s Daly signals gradual easing – Says “a little bit more” rate cuts will be needed over time to balance inflation and employment goals (Reuters)

Fed’s Miran pushes for rapid rate cuts – Other policymakers favor gradual moves as inflation stays above target and labor market shows only mild cooling (Reuters)

August existing-home sales dip 0.2% from July but rise 1.8% YoY – Median price hits $422,600 as high costs and 6.3% mortgage rates keep buyers cautious despite growing inventory (WSJ)

Pending home sales fall 0.9% YoY, first decline in 3 months - Mortgage rates slid for a ninth week to 6.26% but high prices, thin new listings, and economic uncertainty kept buyers sidelined (Redfin)

Insight: Yesterday we looked at how new-home sales surged 20.5% from July and 15.4% YoY to a three-year high, and today’s existing-home data confirm the trend: builder incentives are helping buyers manage high borrowing costs, making new construction more attractive than the resale market. Builders using mortgage rate buydowns and upgrades are capturing buyers whose top concern is affordability, while many existing-home sellers hold firm on prices or pull listings. Even with mortgage rates easing, these incentives give new homes a clear edge by lowering monthly payments and offering flexibility the resale market rarely matches.

NMHC reports multifamily construction delays easing – High rates and low rent growth keep starts down despite a slight three-month outlook improvement (ConnectCRE)

U.S. office sales jump 42% YoY to $25.9B in H1 2025 – JLL cites rising bid volume, falling rates and a shift from “office curious” to “office serious” as investors chase high-quality assets (CNBC)

Office owner and investor Joss Realty REIT files for IPO – Targets boutique office assets in Boston, Philadelphia and the Bay Area with 70% occupancy and plans to expand into top metros amid distressed office valuations (Bisnow)

Insight: Earlier this year CBRE predicted an office rebound, and JLL’s data now hint that the upturn may be taking shape. Rising bid volume and falling rates are drawing investors toward high-quality assets, signaling early signs of renewed confidence in the sector.

NYC Department of Citywide Administrative Services signs 80.8K-sf office lease at 14 Wall St. in New York, NY – Alexander Rovt's building lands 20-year, $77M deal for the Department for the Aging (GlobeSt)

September inbound volumes projected to fall 15.7% YoY – Tariffs and fading frontloading drive sharp drop in U.S. container imports as China bookings sink 26% (FreightWaves)

Starbucks to shut about 1% of North American stores – $1B restructuring aims to cut costs and revive sales (Reuters)

Hobby Lobby and Michaels grow visits despite weak discretionary spending – Crafting demand stays strong as Party City and JOANN exits boost market share and seasonal sales (Placer.ai)

CoreWeave expands OpenAI deal with $6.5B contract – Partnership now totals $22.4B as OpenAI accelerates its multigigawatt AI data-center buildout and CoreWeave diversifies beyond Microsoft (Reuters)

Rising power costs draw political fire – Utilities face profit caps as grid upgrades and AI-driven demand push electricity prices 31% above 2020 levels (WSJ)

U.S. to delay most coal plant retirements – Energy secretary says aging coal units will keep running to meet soaring AI power demand, alongside expanded nuclear and backup generation (Reuters)

Ventas and GIC near $475M loan for Pennsylvania life sciences portfolio – Wells Fargo and JPMorgan are arranging fixed-rate CMBS financing backed by the fully leased Drexel University Health Science Building in Philadelphia and Assembly in Pittsburgh (Bisnow)

JPMorgan provides $417M construction loan for Four Seasons Resort and Residences near Telluride, CO – Merrimac Ventures and Fort Partners are developing the $1B luxury hotel and residential project slated for completion in 2028 (TheRealDeal)

Related Group secures $100M construction financing for 149-unit workforce housing project in Riviera Beach, FL – Funding supports the eight-story Residences at Marina Village, part of the city’s Marina Village redevelopment (TheRealDeal)

Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo provide $229M refinancing for Miami, FL office tower – Monarch Alternative Capital and Tourmaline Capital Partners boosted a 2023 loan by $80.4M to refinance the 694K-SF 801 Brickell property (CommercialObserver)

Morgan Stanley provides $327M CMBS refinancing for 1.4M-SF medical office portfolio across 13 states – Welltower and Wafra JV secured a $278.3M senior loan and $48.7M mezz loan arranged by Newmark to refinance $298.9M in debt (CommercialObserver)

JPI secures $132M bond financing for 461-unit apartment development in Denton, TX – Structured with the Denton Housing Authority to deliver half the units as affordable housing (TheRealDeal)

GIC and Hong Kong Monetary Authority list 1.2M-SF office tower in San Francisco, CA for over $1B – Hines developed and manages 101 California, a 48-story property that underwent a $75M renovation in 2023 (TheRealDeal)

FPA Multifamily buys two Baltimore, MD multifamily buildings for $73M – Acquired the 345-unit Lofts and Flats from Benefit Street Partners (CommercialObserver)

Office Properties Income Trust nears bankruptcy – Cash dwindles to $90M with $277M debt maturing in 2026, 85% occupancy, and limited refinancing options despite asset sales and restructuring efforts (Bisnow)

MaxHome.AI raises $5M seed round – AI platform streamlines real estate transactions with Berkshire Hathaway and Coldwell Banker affiliates already onboard (HousingWire)