The Brick Brief Friday, November 14, 2025 

Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Happy Friday. Today we’re seeing traders pare rate cut bets as Fed officials raise doubts about a December cut, homebuilders push prices higher with aggressive buydowns, and rising listings create early signs of cooling in the housing market.

📈 Traders Pare Rate Cut Bets
The 10Y yield climbed to 4.12% as traders raised doubts about a December cut after Fed officials warned that inflation stays sticky and growth remains firm. Fed rhetoric now centers on caution as Daly, Musalem, Kashkari and Hammack each highlighted stubborn inflation and firm activity while December cut odds slipped to 52.1%.

🏗️ Builders Push Prices Higher
Builders inflate prices as aggressive rate buydowns shift buyers’ focus to the monthly payment instead of the home’s true underlying value. Many FHA buyers then slip underwater once temporary buydowns expire and payments reset higher while low down payments leave almost no equity when prices normalize.

🏡 Listings Cool the Market
The housing market is easing as rising supply creates space for buyers to negotiate. Homes.com reported a 10.1% YoY jump in new listings as prices rose 1.3% YoY but dropped $19K from June’s peak to a $385K median in October.

30Y Mortgage: 6.34% (+5 bps) 

10Y Treasury Yield: 4.12% (+4 bps)

WSJ Prime Rate: 7.25%

FTSE NAREIT Index: 759.94 (-1.13%)

30-day SOFR Average: 4.14%

The 10Y Treasury yield rose to 4.12% as traders cut back their December rate-cut expectations after Fed officials warned that inflation remains sticky and the economy continues to show more resilience than expected.

Fed doubts deepen around a December rate cut – Hawkish officials flag stronger economic resilience and uneven labor data while markets scale back expectations (Bloomberg)

Treasuries slip as traders scale back December cut bets – Fed hawks highlight lingering inflation and limited data, pushing cut odds below 50% and lifting yields across the curve (Bloomberg)

Verizon will cut 15,000 jobs – The carrier aims to reduce costs and stabilize its wireless and home-internet business amid rising competitive pressure (WSJ)

Jobless claims hold near 227k – Haver Analytics estimates show filings barely changed from the prior week (Reuters)

US cuts tariffs on select imports – Washington strikes framework deals with Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala and El Salvador to lower costs on goods like bananas, coffee and pharmaceutical inputs (FT)

Fed’s Daly is keeping an open mind on a December rate cut – She says it’s too soon to decide as inflation stays stubborn and the labor market weakens (Bloomberg)

Fed’s Musalem urges caution on more rate cuts – He says inflation stays above target and warns the Fed has limited room to ease further (Bloomberg)

Fed’s Kashkari says the economy is showing more resilience than expected – He casts doubt on a December rate cut and remains undecided heading into the meeting (Bloomberg)

Fed’s Hammack says rates should stay restrictive – She argues current levels are barely restrictive and needed to keep pressure on inflation (Bloomberg)

October jobs report will omit the unemployment rate – The household survey wasn’t conducted during the shutdown, so BLS will release only the payroll numbers for the month (Bloomberg)

David Auerbach of Hoya Capital favors Senior Housing, Data Center, Retail, Billboard, and Mortgage REITs

Home prices rose 1.3% YoY but fell $10K from June’s peak to a $385K median in October – Homes.com data shows a 10.1% YoY jump in new listings that is helping cool the market (Homes.com)

Pending home sales slipped 0.3% YoY in the four weeks ending November 9 – Median price rose 2.4% YoY to $393,700 as buyers waited for lower rates, while new listings rose 3.4% YoY (Redfin)

Builders’ cheap mortgages are inflating prices – Big builders use aggressive buydowns to offer sub-4% loans, but buyers often overpay and face high rates of underwater FHA mortgages (WSJ)

Insight: Builders inflate new home prices because deep mortgage buydowns and incentives push buyers to focus on the monthly payment rather than the real value of the home, which lets builders raise prices beyond what the market would normally support. Many FHA buyers end up underwater because the temporary buydown expires after a few years and resets their payment to the true market rate, and their low down payments leave them with almost no equity once the home’s unsubsidized value settles back to market levels.

Hidden homeownership costs now top $16K a year – Zillow and Thumbtack find maintenance, insurance and taxes have climbed 4.7% YoY to $15,979, with coastal metros facing far higher burdens (Zillow)

Realtor.com says portable mortgages won’t work – Letting owners carry 3% loans into new purchases would push prices higher and break the U.S. securitization system that relies on property-specific collateral (Realtor.com)

CoStar warns the multifamily downturn will last longer than expected – Rent growth is now projected to turn negative in 4Q 2025 with vacancy stuck at 8.2% until supply eases in 2026 (GlobeSt)

Rippling leases 133K SF at 330 West 34th Street in New York, NY – The workforce platform signed a 10-year deal with Vornado for three floors in the Penn District tower as it relocates from 4 World Trade Center (CommercialObserver)

Electra USA leases 25K SF at 10 East 53rd Street in New York, NY – The electrical contractor signed a 10-year, 25,331-SF deal with SL Green to relocate from 106 West 56th Street, filling the Midtown tower to full occupancy (CommercialObserver)

Ocean rates face pressure as carriers fight oversupply – Asia–US West Coast prices jumped 48% to $2,958 per FEU on Nov. 1 GRIs, but rates are already fading as weak demand and excess capacity cap pricing power (FreightWaves)

Starbucks’ $29.95 Bearista merch launch sparked a 37.8% visit surge – The limited-edition bear-shaped glass drove crowds to stores as fans lined up to buy the collectible item (Placer.ai)

‘Phantom’ data centers inflate US power forecasts – Developers are double-counting projects and leaving non-viable sites in utility queues, forcing utilities to slash pipelines and tighten rules to prevent overbuilding (FT)

CoreWeave slashes guidance after data center delays – A third-party provider failed to deliver capacity on time, pushing $200M of revenue into early 2026 and triggering a sharp sell-off (Bisnow)

Hotel food and beverage revenue shines in 2025 – Food and beverage revenue per occupied room rose 3.8% in the first half of the year as luxury and resort hotels captured stronger leisure demand and higher prices (CBRE)

Multifamily REIT Elme Communities completes $1.6B sale and secures a $520M Goldman Sachs loan to repay debt and finish liquidating its remaining assets – Cortland bought 19 properties as Elme targets a full wind-down by June 2026 (Bisnow)

Data center developer Applied Digital sells $2.35B in construction debt at 97 cents and 10% yield – Investors pushed pricing to one of the year’s steepest discounts, as the bonds hinge on CoreWeave as the main tenant (Bloomberg)

Starwood sells two commercial condos at 425 Westchester Avenue in the Bronx, NY for $94M – EducationRE acquired the units to support expansion of the Zeta Charter School facility (CommercialObserver)

BLP buys 1.1M-SF warehouse for $174M in Fontana, CA – The industrial investor acquired the soon-to-be-vacant 10681 Production Avenue facility from a private seller and plans upgrades ahead of a 2026 turnover (CommercialObserver)

Northwind Group closes its 2nd healthcare debt fund at $342.5M – The Manhattan firm exceeded its $250M target to expand bridge-to-HUD and structured financing for skilled nursing and senior housing portfolios (ConnectCRE)

Marriott faces backlash over apartment-style lodging operator Sonder’s collapse – Sonder’s Chapter 7 liquidation voided thousands of Marriott-booked stays and triggered refund disputes after the 9,000-room licensing deal fell apart (Bloomberg)

New foreclosures rose 3% MoM and 19% YoY in October – Higher starts and completed filings signal gradual housing stress as Florida, South Carolina and Illinois lead state-level distress (CNBC)

Mortgage fraud risk rises 8.2% YoY in Q3 – Cotality flagged undisclosed real estate debt as the main driver as income, identity, and property-value alerts climbed amid easing home prices (HousingWire)

CW Capital acquires seven distressed former Martin Selig Real Estate office buildings in Seattle, WA for $120M – The special servicer took control of the 1.1M-SF portfolio via trustee’s deed after the CMBS-backed assets entered receivership (TheRealDeal)

Five student housing properties in Denton, TX head to foreclosure after Jordan Multifamily allegedly defaulted on a $56M loan – The 405-unit portfolio near the University of North Texas is scheduled for a Dec. 2 auction unless a deal is reached with lender Argentic (TheRealDeal)

AI is reshaping multifamily by strengthening risk assessment and portfolio decisions – Bob Simpson of the Multifamily Impact Council says better data standards and easing adoption barriers will accelerate impact (IREI)