Key Insights

CEO confidence plunged to its lowest level since 2012, and small business optimism declined as uncertainty over tariffs, inflation, and labor challenges weighed on sentiment. Retailers like Dick’s Sporting Goods also signaled caution, citing an uncertain consumer outlook for 2025 despite solid earnings performance

Trump held Canada’s steel and aluminum tariffs at 25% instead of doubling them after Ontario withdrew its energy surcharge, easing immediate trade tensions. However, broader tariff expansions on metals still threaten U.S. manufacturers with rising costs and supply chain disruptions

Affluent renters are growing in 35 of the 50 largest U.S. metros, opting for leases over mortgages as high interest rates and home prices deter homeownership. The trend is most pronounced in the Sun Belt, where migration and luxury rental demand remain strong

This Week in Real Estate: Key Events & Data

Quick Markets

30Y Mortgage: 6.75% (+4 bps)
10Y Treasury Yield: 4.28% (+10 bps)
FTSE NAREIT Index: 776.00 (-1.10%)
30-day SOFR Average: 4.35%

Market Pulse

CEO and small business sentiment dropped sharply amid tariff uncertainty, inflation concerns, and labor challenges, with confidence levels hitting multi-year lows as recession fears grow. Persistent economic uncertainty and higher manufacturing costs from tariffs could weigh on investment, hiring, and future rate policy as the Fed assesses downside risks

Trump’s expanded 25% steel and aluminum tariffs take effect — Hitting $147.3B in goods, raising costs for manufacturers, and aiming to boost U.S. metals production (Reuters)

Trump Holds Canada Tariffs at 25% — Ontario scrapped its electricity surcharge, leading the Trump administration to forgo doubling steel and aluminum tariffs ahead of trade talks (WSJ)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 2.1 points to 100.7 in February — Reflecting rising uncertainty, inflation, and labor quality concerns (NFIB)

CEO confidence plummets to its lowest level since 2012 — Tariff uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and government layoffs fuel recession fears, with only 39% expecting business conditions to improve this year (ChiefExecutive)

US Job Openings Rise to 7.74M, But Risks Loom — January job openings grew by 232K, while layoffs hit an eight-month low, but policy uncertainty threatens future labor demand (Reuters)

Residential

Rising asking rents, builder material stockpiling, and a surge in affluent renters signal mounting pressures in the housing market, while declining permits could tighten supply and drive rents higher in 2025

Asking rents rose 0.4% in February 2025 — First Increase in six months (Redfin)

Builders are stockpiling materials, including lumber and steel, to avoid tariffs —Rising storage costs and cash shortages pressure operations and home prices (WSJ)

Affluent renters are rising in 35 of the 50 largest US metros — Opting for leases over mortgages as homebuying costs soar, especially in the Sun Belt (Redfin)

Record new apartments hit in Q3 2024, with 47% rented within three months — Falling permits may tighten supply and push rents up next year

America’s wealthiest 1% hold a record $49.2T — Enough to buy nearly every US home as wealth inequality widens (Redfin)

Industrial

Air Cargo Growth Slows to 3% Amid Trade Uncertainty — Trump’s tariffs and import restrictions threaten demand, raising recession fears and pressuring freight rates (FreightWaves)

Market Mix

$1B Loews Hotels expansion in Orlando — 3 resorts tied to Comcast’s Epic Universe, adding 2,000 new rooms (Bloomberg)

Self storage construction starts dropped 20% in 2024 — Weak rental growth and financing challenges suggest a continued slowdown into 2025, impacting future supply (YardiMatrix)

Single-Tenant Net Lease (STNL) Demand Holds Amid High Costs — Investor interest remains strong despite rising cap rates (6.9%) and higher financing costs (GlobeSt)

Earnings

Dick’s cautious 2025 outlook and Ferguson’s weak Q2 earnings signal growing economic uncertainty, with consumer hesitation and subdued construction demand potentially slowing housing market activity and real estate investment

Dick’s Sporting Goods’ shares fell 6% despite surpassing Q4 earnings and revenue expectations, as its 2025 profit forecast came in well below estimates, citing uncertainty rather than consumer weakness as the reason (CNBC) 

Ferguson Enterprises’ shares fell 5% after the HVAC distributor missed Q2 earnings and revenue expectations as subdued market demand and commodity price deflation pressured margins

Financings

Blackstone Mortgage Trust is preparing a $1B CLO — Backed by 90 assets, 85% in apartments, hospitality, and industrial (Bloomberg)

$50M LA Multifamily Complex Refinancing — Affinius Capital provided $50M to refinance Jamison Services’ The Roya (CommercialObserver)

M&A

Musk’s xAI Buys $80M Memphis Site for AI Data Center — xAI acquired a 1M SF site in Whitehaven to expand its AI computing cluster with 350K GPUs and Tesla battery storage (Bisnow)

$60M Miami Beach Mansion Sale — Developer James Curnin sold his newly built waterfront La Gorce Island estate in an off-market deal (TheRealDeal)

Institutional Fundraising

$401M Industrials Fund — Ambrose closed its fourth industrials fund to build industrial developments in Florida, Denver, Ohio, and Indiana (CommercialObserver)

CalPERS Commits $1.8B to Real Assets — The pension fund allocated $1.1B to infrastructure funds as part of its latest investment push (IPE)

Distress Watch

$175M LA Megalisting Hits Market — A Benedict Canyon site once slated for a Bulgari hotel is up for sale amid pre-foreclosure, with a $49.7M unpaid loan balance (TheRealDeal)