Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Thank you for your continued support! Today we’re seeing inflation cool to 2.4%, Congress advance bipartisan housing supply reforms, and Prologis signal an industrial inflection as vacancies fall and rent growth strengthens into 2026.

📉 Inflation Cools But The Fed Stays Cautious
January inflation cooled to 2.4% as gasoline and used car prices fell, but tariff-sensitive goods and sticky services costs still argue for patience on rate cuts. Markets leaned into the softer print as the 30Y mortgage rate dipped 6 bps to 6.04% and the 10Y Treasury yield slid 9 bps to 4.03%.

🏠 Congress Targets Housing Supply And Affordability
Congress advanced bipartisan housing legislation aimed at easing the housing crisis by boosting supply and expanding affordability tools. The bills push zoning-linked federal incentives, faster environmental reviews for infill projects, expanded manufactured housing financing, and small-dollar mortgages under $150K to help more first-time buyers qualify.

🏭 Industrial Leasing Turns The Corner
Prologis flagged a turning point for industrial as vacancy fell to 7.4% in Q4 2025 with net absorption outpacing new supply. Development starts have dropped 71% from the peak, tightening future availability and setting up firmer rent growth into 2026; Prologis sees market rents inflecting as 78% of markets show stabilizing or accelerating momentum.

January inflation cools to 2.4% as gasoline and used car prices decline – Core CPI held at 2.5%, but tariff-sensitive goods and sticky services costs suggest the Fed may wait for more evidence before resuming rate cuts (WSJ)

Companies restart price hikes as tariffs bite again – Levi jeans rose $5–$10, Columbia is pushing high-single-digit increases, and McCormick expects another $50M in tariff costs as imported goods prices climb 2.3% since late November (WSJ)

Trump weighs overhaul of steel and aluminum tariffs to ease consumer costs – The plan would shift to tiered rates based on metal content, lowering duties on some consumer goods while keeping heavy tariffs on industrial materials (WSJ)

AI scare trade slams CRE brokerages and office REITs – CBRE fell 26% in two days wiping out ~$12B as investors question whether AI could compress advisory fees; office landlords like SL Green also slid on fears of weaker long-term space demand (Bisnow)

Congress advances bipartisan housing crisis legislation targeting supply and affordability – House and Senate bills push zoning incentives, streamline environmental reviews, expand manufactured housing, and broaden access to small-dollar mortgages under $150K (WSJ)

Congress is proposing:

Housing for the 21st Century Act aims to expand affordable housing supply via manufactured homes – Ending the chassis rule could mainstream ~$122K factory-built homes with payments near ~$600 vs. ~$2,000 for site-built housing (Bloomberg)

Fed weighs tougher risk-based mortgage capital rules under Basel III – Using loan-to-value ratios for risk weights could reshape bank mortgage lending and slow the shift of home loans toward nonbank lenders (Bloomberg)

Previously banks faced relatively blunt mortgage capital rules that made even safer home loans costly to hold, pushing more lending activity toward nonbanks over the past decade. This change would link capital to LTV risk, potentially bringing banks back into prime mortgages while making high-LTV lending pricier.

An unintended side effect, however, is that first-time homebuyers who rely on low down payments could face higher borrowing costs, as banks may price high-LTV mortgages more conservatively under tougher capital charges. Interested to see whether policymakers or the current administration push back, given the recent broader push to expand housing affordability and lower mortgage costs

Massachusetts rent control heads to November ballot with 5% cap – Support is rising as Boston rents hit ~$3,370 for a two-bedroom, but developers warn strict limits could choke new housing supply (WSJ)

Housing demand stabilizes in mid-February as mortgage rates hover near 6% – Weekly pending sales rose to 59,469 after snow disruptions, inventory increased by ~2,850 units, and the share of price cuts fell ~0.9 points YoY to 32.1%. (HousingWire)

All-cash home purchases fell to 29% in December 2025, lowest year-end share since 2020 – Mortgage rates near 6.09% reduced the advantage of paying cash; sellers now outnumber buyers by a record 47%, easing competition and lowering the need for cash offers (Redfin)

Homebuyer down payments fell 1.5% YoY to $64K in December as affordability strains grow – Buyers put down 15.2% vs. 16.7% last year, using stronger negotiating power in a softer housing market to spend less upfront (Redfin)

Home sellers start getting ~5% lower prices after age 70, research finds – Deferred maintenance and more off-market sales reduce competition; an 80-year-old seller nets ~$20K less on a $405K home (CNBC)

Multifamily REITs turn cautiously optimistic for 2026 as supply peaks and retention hits highs – MAA, AvalonBay, Equity Residential, Essex, and Camden see improving absorption and stronger 2H 2026 fundamentals as new deliveries slow (RealPage)

70% of New York executives plan to expand office space within 18 months – Office demand is holding up as flight-to-quality leasing continues, even as AI adoption begins to slow hiring plans (CoStar)

Industrial leasing hits turning point as vacancy falls to 7.4% in Q4 2025 – Net absorption outpaced new supply, pushing vacancies down 10 bps as tenants moved off the sidelines (Prologis)

New industrial supply dries up as development starts drop 71% from peak – Deliveries totaled 50M SF and replacement-cost rents sit ~20% above market, limiting new speculative building (Prologis)

Rent growth sets up for 2026 as demand broadens and scarcity returns – Prologis sees market rents inflecting with 78% of markets showing stabilizing or faster growth as competition for space rises (Prologis)

Older warehouses lose tenants as automation demands higher clear heights – Pre-2010 industrial buildings saw 96M SF of occupancy losses in 2023 and 131M SF in 2024, pushing owners to spend $1.5M–$8M raising roofs to stay competitive (Bisnow)

ICE plans $38.3B warehouse acquisition push to expand detention capacity – DHS is buying and retrofitting industrial facilities into processing and large-scale detention centers, targeting 92,600 beds by November 2026 (Bisnow)

Planet Fitness visits rose 8.9% YoY in Q4 2025 as budget gyms pull ahead – Low-cost memberships under $30 are widening the traffic gap versus premium chains as consumers stay price-sensitive into early 2026 (Placerai)

Value continues to outperform across every segment of retail, from fitness to shopping to dining

Wendy’s plans to close 300–360 underperforming US stores after same-store sales fell 11.3% – The chain is shifting back to everyday value deals as inflation-weary consumers pull back on fast-food spending (Bisnow)

AI bubble fears revive single-name credit hedges for Big Tech debt – CDS tied to ~$895M of Alphabet and ~$687M of Meta debt are now actively traded as hyperscaler borrowing is projected to hit $400B in 2026 (Bloomberg)

PJM proposal could spur flurry of data center power deals – “Bring-your-own-generation” rules may push hyperscalers toward direct contracts with IPPs like Vistra; Constellation; Talen as AI-driven demand strains the grid (Reuters)

Hospitals face rising real estate distress as federal healthcare funding tightens – Medicaid cuts of ~$1.1T and expiring ACA subsidies could push ~12M off coverage, driving more distressed hospital property sales and sale-leasebacks (Bisnow)

Colliers raises 2026 outlook as transactions recover – Q4 revenue rose 7% to $1.61B and engineering and design revenue jumped 40% to $1.73B (Colliers)

Marcus & Millichap turns profitable again as financing rebounds – The firm posted a $13.3M Q4 profit and grew financing revenue 6% as transaction volume rose 8% to $3.7B across 500+ deals (Colliers)

In Q4, brokerages benefitted from an uptick in transaction volume

Japanese homebuilder Sumitomo Forestry agrees to acquire US homebuilder Tri Pointe Homes for $4.5B – Sumitomo is targeting 30,000 annual US home sales by 2030 as foreign capital deepens its footprint in homebuilding (Bisnow)

Pershing Square sued over $900M Howard Hughes control deal – Investors claim Ackman pressured the board into an unfair fee-heavy structure that handed Pershing ~47% control without a true minority premium (Bloomberg)

Mortgage delinquencies rise to 4.26% in Q4 2025 as affordability strains homeowners – MBA reports later-stage delinquencies climbing faster than early missed payments, while foreclosure starts held near 0.2% (TheRealDeal)

January foreclosures rise 32% YoY as affordability stress builds – ATTOM reported 40,534 filings in January with foreclosure starts up 26% and REOs up 59%, though volumes remain well below 2007–2010 crisis peaks (NationalMortgageNews)