Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Thank you for your continued support! Today we’re seeing December pending home sales plunge, office absorption continue to improve, and industrial leasing show strong gains.

🏡 Listings Rise as Sellers Reset Pricing
Pending home sales fell sharply in December, down 9.3% MoM, as buyers pulled back amid thin inventory. On a positive note, however, national new listings jumped 29% WoW in the week ending Jan. 16, 2026, and sellers are growing more realistic on pricing, which supports healthier price discovery and improving transaction activity.

🏢 Office Absorption Improves as Supply Tightens
The office market posted its sixth straight quarter of positive absorption in Q4 2025 as 7.1M SF of net absorption lifted year-to-date gains to 18.6M SF and 53% of U.S. markets posted improvements. CBD vacancy remained elevated at 19.2% and sat 50 bps above last year as hybrid and remote work continue to weigh on dense urban cores; however, only 25.8M SF of office space remains under construction, far below the 2019 peak of 158M SF, pointing to limited future supply.

🚚 Industrial Leasing Reaccelerates
U.S. logistics demand rebounded in late 2025 as accelerated Q4 activity pushed full-year industrial leasing up 12% to the second-highest level on record after 2021. Newer and larger distribution facilities led absorption; Prologis noted in Q4 earnings that consumer goods and e-commerce tenants are driving demand, while housing and auto-related users remain cautious.

Trump drops Europe tariff threat after outlining a Greenland framework deal - Talks with NATO’s Mark Rutte paused February tariffs and reduced near-term trade war risk (FT)

Economists expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% through March and potentially until Powell’s term ends - A Reuters poll shows strong growth and inflation above target have pushed expectations for near-term cuts off the table (Reuters)

Trump targets institutional SFR landlords in Davos remarks – Donald Trump said large investors have pushed up home prices, urged Congress to bar institutional SFR buying, and warned tax advantages like depreciation could face new scrutiny (Bloomberg)

Asset manager portfolio managers and CIOs warn Wall Street landlord curbs could push home prices higher - They argue Trump’s executive order boosts buyer demand without fixing supply constraints, as institutions own only ~3% of single-family rentals (Reuters)

California mandates stoves and refrigerators in rentals – AB 628 expands statewide habitability rules, requiring landlords to provide and maintain basic appliances that were often omitted in smaller California rentals (CoStar)

U.S. pending home sales drop 9.3% MoM in December – Contract signings fell to an index of 71.8 versus forecasts for a 0.7% increase, according to the National Association of Realtors (WSJ)

The NAR believes pending home sales fell so dramatically because buyers pulled back as thin inventory limited choice and made committing to a purchase less compelling; a prolonged slowdown, however, would raise concerns that the pullback reflects weakening demand rather than a temporary supply-driven pause.

U.S. construction spending rose 0.5% in October, driven by home renovations - Residential outlays jumped 1.3% despite a 1.3% drop in new single-family construction (Reuters)

October construction data shows many homeowners choosing to renovate existing homes instead of moving, likely attributable to the lock-in effect and other broader affordability constraints

Midwest leads U.S. home price growth in December – St. Louis topped major markets with a 7.7% YoY gain as five Midwestern metros rose over 4%; Sun Belt markets including Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas-Fort Worth, saw flat or declining prices (Homes.com)

Buyers are returning as sellers grow more realistic on pricing in early 2026 - A Corcoran survey of affiliate owners finds shifting expectations are unlocking transaction opportunities as affordability pressures reset seller behavior (Inman)

U.S. housing market is rebalancing in early 2026 as inventory rises to ~696K and price growth slows - New listings jumped 29% WoW while prices held near $419K, supporting stronger pendings and a healthier spring selling cycle (HousingWire)

Sellers growing more realistic on pricing and anchoring less to peak 2022 values, especially in certain regions, alongside rising inventory are supporting healthier price discovery and point to improving housing transaction activity

Refinance demand surged 20% WoW as mortgage rates eased - Total mortgage applications rose 14.1% WoW and refinances climbed to 61.9% of activity, showing how rate-sensitive borrowers remain near ~6% (HousingWire)

U.S. office lending jumped 92% in 2025 despite leasing slump – Office loan originations reached $45.8B and clustered in trophy Class A assets across Silicon Valley, Manhattan, and Orange County (ConnectCRE)

Suburban office vacancy was lower at 16.8% vs 19.2% in CBD markets in Q4 2025 - Suburban vacancy fell 20 bps QoQ and was flat YoY, while CBD vacancy declined 10 bps QoQ but remained 50 bps above last year (Colliers)

CBDs remain under pressure from hybrid and remote work as employees grow less willing to take on long commutes into dense urban cores

7.1M SF of net absorption marked the sixth straight positive quarter in Q4 2025 - Year-to-date absorption reached 18.6M SF as 53% of U.S. office markets posted gains, led by Manhattan’s record 15.6M SF recovery and Dallas at 2.4M SF (Colliers)

18.2% national office vacancy edged lower in Q4 2025 - Vacancy fell 10 bps QoQ but remained 20 bps above last year; Class A vacancy held at 21.1%, while Class B tightened to 16.8% (Colliers)

25.8M SF of office space remains under construction nationwide - The pipeline is concentrated in just 12 markets and sits far below the 2019 peak of 158M SF, reinforcing limited future supply as leasing activity gradually improves (Colliers)

Multfamily AI firm EliseAI signs 109K SF office lease at Chetrit Organization’s 401 Fifth Avenue in Midtown Manhattan, NY – The 10-year deal gives the firm roughly half the building after relocating from East 33rd Street (TheRealDeal)

South African Consulate signs 31K SF office lease at Cohen Brothers Realty Corporation’s 805 Third Avenue in Manhattan, NY – The move keeps the consulate in Midtown (CommercialObserver)

Takeda Pharmaceuticals adds ~80K SF life sciences space at R2 Companies’ Innovation Park Lake County in Libertyville, IL – The expansion brings Takeda’s footprint at the former Motorola campus to ~106K SF (TheRealDeal)

U.S. logistics demand rebounds in late 2025 – Leasing momentum returned after midyear softness as newer, larger distribution facilities drove absorption and lifted occupancy (CoStar)

U.S. industrial leasing jumped 12% in 2025 - Accelerated Q4 activity pushed full-year leasing to the second-highest level on record after 2021, signaling renewed tenant demand late in the year (CBRE)

H2 leasing surge pushed U.S. industrial volumes to 533.2M SF in 2025 - Q4 net absorption hit 58.7M SF, the strongest quarter since Q2 2023, confirming late-year demand resilience (JLL)

McDonald’s loyalty strategy drives visit growth into 2026 – Higher-frequency diners account for a growing share of traffic; MyMcDonald’s Rewards continues to push visits toward 4+ trips per month at McDonald's (Placerai)

Data centers face a ~35 GW power gap by 2030, accelerating the shift to onsite generation - Bloom Energy estimates ~30% of U.S. data center sites will rely on onsite power as a primary source as AI-driven demand outpaces grid capacity (BloomEnergy)

Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin plans a 5,000-satellite network for data center connectivity - The TeraWave system will target enterprise customers and begin deployment in Q4 2027 (Bloomberg)

Prologis met Q4 earnings expectations as customers make longer-term leasing decisions with greater conviction. Consumer-goods sellers and e-commerce firms are driving demand, while housing- and automotive-related tenants remain slower to sign new space (WSJ)

Smithfield Foods buys NY-based hot dog brand Nathan’s Famous for $450M – The acquisition secures permanent rights to the iconic Coney Island brand and expands Smithfield’s reach across retail and foodservice channels (ConnectCRE)

AION trio launches Cold Spring Capital targeting $1B in multifamily buys – The new firm plans to acquire ~10,000 workforce and middle-market units through direct deals and JVs across the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest (Bisnow)

Affinius Capital holds $630M first close for $1B hyperscale data center–focused fund – The inaugural vehicle is focused on large-scale data center development and ownership (IREI)

Affinius Capital has been a consistent name in recent multifamily and industrial financings.

Pandemic and rate hikes reshaped the CMBS market by collapsing private-label issuance and sidelining office collateral – Office fell to a marginal share of securitization pools as refinancing shifted toward extensions and private capital (CommercialObserver)

$3B proptech VC Fifth Wall cuts staff and pauses fundraising – The firm halted new capital raises and reduced headcount, citing higher rates and shifting climate policy pressure (Bisnow)

Realtor.com launches MLS-only collaborative search for agents and buyers - Realtor.com+ lets agents and clients search together in real time and is offered exclusively through MLSs as a member benefit (Inman)