Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Thank you for your continued support! Today we’re watching Powell keep the door open for more 2025 rate cuts, U.S. households continue to face housing affordability pressures, and Nuveen launch a $3B farmland REIT as investor demand for agricultural assets climbs.

💵 Economy & Fed Outlook
The Fed kept policy “modestly restrictive,” and Chair Powell left the door open for more 2025 cuts as officials balance softer hiring with stubborn inflation. The Chicago Fed’s real-time estimate holds September unemployment at 4.3%, signaling a stable labor market that still warrants careful policy moves.

🏠 Housing Affordability Strains
According to Redfin, 44.4% of U.S. households struggle with housing costs and many delay family plans or share housing to keep up. August home prices rose just 0.2% while YoY growth slowed to 3.1%, and Fannie Mae expects 30-year mortgage rates to ease slightly to 6.4% by late 2025 and 5.9% in 2026, leaving borrowing costs elevated.

🌾 Farmland Investment Rises
Nuveen launched a $3B private farmland REIT focused on U.S. row and permanent crops as farmland values climbed 5% YoY to $5,830 per acre, a 44% jump since 2020. Farmland is continuing to gain traction as a real estate asset, and platforms such as AcreTrader are drawing more investors seeking performance and inflation-resistant income.

30Y Mortgage: 6.37% (+2 bps) 

10Y Treasury Yield: 4.11% (-4 bps)

WSJ Prime Rate: 7.50%

FTSE NAREIT Index: 776.09 (+0.75%) 

30-day SOFR Average: 4.36%

Powell calls Fed policy “modestly restrictive,” keeping door open for more 2025 cuts – Warns of two-sided risks as officials weigh labor-market softness against inflation after last week’s rate cut (WSJ)

Chicago Fed real-time estimate puts September U.S. unemployment at 4.3% – Early gauge blends government and private data for quicker labor-market insight (Reuters)

Three Fed officials propose 1.75%–2.25% inflation target range – Stephen Miran, Michelle Bowman, and Raphael Bostic say it would reduce precision concerns and policy micromanagement (Bloomberg)

U.S. business activity slows for second month in September – S&P Global PMI slips to 53.6 as tariffs lift input costs but weak demand keeps prices in check, easing inflation concerns (Reuters)

OECD warns U.S. tariff shock not fully felt – Global growth forecast raised to 3.2% for 2025 as firms absorb record-high 19.5% U.S. import duties, with U.S. growth seen slowing to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 (Reuters)

New York State launches $50M “Move in NY” manufactured housing program – Plans to deliver 200 modular homes to low- and mid-income families across up to 15 communities within a year (TheRealDeal)

44.4% of U.S. homeowners and renters struggle to afford housing – Among them, 6.4% moved in with parents, 5.3% moved in with a partner, 4.6% gave up pets, and 4.0% delayed having children to keep up with costs (Redfin)

U.S. home prices rose 0.2% in August - YoY growth slowed to 3.1% (lowest since 2012) with 26 of the 50 largest metros posting monthly declines (Redfin)

Fannie Mae forecasts 30-year mortgage rates to end 2025 at 6.4% and 2026 at 5.9% – ESR group also trims real GDP growth outlook to 1.5% for 2025 and 2.1% for 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis (HousingWire)

Insight: With August home prices still inching higher and Fannie Mae projecting mortgage rates near 6% through 2026, housing affordability is set to remain the market’s central pressure point.

Insurance premiums up 38.5% in five years – Insurer exits and rising disaster risks spur calls for stronger codes and coordinated resilience to prevent a housing shock (Cotality)

Fixer-uppers list at $200K median – Priced 54.2% below the $436,250 U.S. median, they draw 52% more page views and spend 53 days on market, with top opportunities in St. Louis, Detroit, Jackson MS, Toledo OH, and Dayton OH (Realtor.com)

Foreign buyers cut U.S. condo share to 5% – Canadian demand drops on tariffs and weak currency while Latin American and Asian investors sustain Miami and NYC markets (CommercialObserver).

Asian grocers outpace grocery sector – H Mart, Mitsuwa Marketplace, and Patel Brothers see 39–42% of visits on weekends and average 27–41 minutes per trip, topping 2024 YoY visit growth (Placer.ai)

OpenAI plans $1T global AI infrastructure buildout – 20+ GW computing capacity with Oracle, SoftBank, and $100B Nvidia deal driving massive Texas data-center expansion (WSJ)

AI faces $800B compute funding gap – Bain projects global demand could require $2T annual revenue and 100 GW U.S. power by 2030, far exceeding current data center investment (Bisnow)

Nvidia’s $100B OpenAI investment raises circular financing concerns from analysts – Nvidia funds OpenAI, which then buys Nvidia chips, creating self-reinforcing demand and bubble risks (Bloomberg)

Kendall Square lab vacancies surge to 20% – Cambridge biotech hub faces falling rents and pivots toward clean energy and tough tech as MIT and Biogen break ground on new HQ (Bloomberg)

Micron beat Q4 earnings estimates with 46% YoY revenue growth as it struggles to meet soaring memory demand (WSJ)

U.S. commercial/multifamily mortgage debt rose 1% in Q2 2025 to $4.88T – Multifamily debt climbed 1.3% to $2.19T, with life insurers up 2.4% and banks up 0.9% in holdings (ConnectCRE)

Cottonwood Group provides $105M construction loan for 223.5k-SF life sciences facility in Austin, TX – Reger Holdings and Tarlton Properties are developing the project within the 425-acre EastVillage community (IREI)

Buccini Pollin Group secures $103M recap loan for 363-unit office-to-residential conversion in Wilmington, DE – Apollo, Pearlmark, Octagon Finance and S&T Bank finance the former DuPont HQ redevelopment arranged by Arrow Real Estate Advisors (CommercialObserver)

Infinity Collective provides $57M bridge loan for 230-unit multifamily project in Lake Worth Beach, FL – Financing enables Midtown Capital to complete construction and lease up the Astor Sound apartment complex (TheRealDeal)

North Signal Capital and EJF Capital secure $115M refinance loan for 1.32M-sf industrial portfolio in Hardeeville, GA – Three RiverPort Commerce Park Class A distribution centers are 87% leased near the Savannah port (ConnectCRE)

KKR and Canada Pension Plan invest $10B for 45% of Sempra Infrastructure – Deal boosts Sempra’s credit profile and supports LNG export growth (Bloomberg)

Blackstone leads $7B hybrid equity-plus-private-credit financing for 49.9% of Sempra’s Port Arthur Phase 2 – Combines ownership stake with majority construction lending to expand U.S. LNG capacity (Bloomberg)

Insight: KKR and Blackstone’s combined $17B investment in Sempra will expand U.S. LNG export capacity and the pipelines, storage, and terminals that feed it. As more American gas is shipped abroad, domestic supply tightens and wholesale prices can rise. Natural gas already fuels roughly 40 % of U.S. electricity, so any upward pressure on gas prices flows directly into power costs. At the same time, the rapid buildout of AI and cloud data centers is driving a steep jump in U.S. electricity demand - data centers are projected to consumer 44% of new electricity demand by 2028., keeping gas-fired generation in heavy use. The two trends reinforce each other: growing export pull and fast-rising domestic load both raise the stakes for utilities to secure fuel early, hedge price risk, and accelerate non-gas generation and transmission projects to keep customer bills in check. Sempra stands to gain from this environment because its LNG infrastructure and gas supply network give it a direct channel to serve both surging domestic power producers and overseas buyers seeking reliable U.S. fuel.

Sack Capital buys 171-unit multifamily property in Berkeley, CA for $52.3M – Acquires Fourth & U Apartments with 15K sf of retail from Essex Property Trust, plans renovations and on-site management (TheRealDeal)

Nuveen launches $3B private farmland REIT – Targets U.S. row crops and permanent crops as farmland values climb 5% YoY to $5,830 per acre, up 44% since 2020 (Bisnow)

Insight: Farmland has delivered about 10% annual returns over the past two decades, and Nuveen’s $3B REIT together with the $320M AUM farmland crowdfunding platform AcreTrader’s success shows that both institutional and retail investors are seeking greater exposure to this asset.

MetLife Investment Management acquires 377k-sf Newport Beach, CA office campus in distressed default for $70M – Buys 10-story East and West Towers at 4000 MacArthur Blvd through loan assumption (TheRealDeal)

Global Property Linked Finance Initiative launches to expand property-linked finance, currently worth $18B – Seeking to create a global asset class that funds net-zero and climate-resilient building upgrades (Bloomberg)

Proptech embraces AI for home search – Startups like Zefir and Homiere use natural language and chat-based tools to cut transaction times in half, challenging Zillow and Apartments.com as investors back personalized, agent-friendly platforms (CommercialObserver)

RealReports partners with Restb.ai to bring AI-powered property data to MLS platforms – Georgia’s FMLS and Ohio’s MLS Now will integrate appraisal-grade insights for 89,000+ members to improve comparisons and client communication (HousingWire)