Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Thank you for your continued support! While news remains light during the holidays, we’re seeing housing price growth slow materially, commercial real estate projections reset toward stabilization, and private gas-fired power solutions for data centers emerge.

🏢 Commercial Real Estate Stabilizes In 2026
In 2026, CNBC sees commercial real estate entering a stabilization phase as slower growth and higher unemployment reset expectations. Reduced construction activity in 2025 is expected to ease supply pressure and support normalization rather than a sharp recovery.

🏠 Home Price Growth Slows Meaningfully
U.S. home price growth is decelerating as the Case Shiller national index rose 1.4% YoY while the FHFA House Price Index increased 1.7% YoY, the slowest pace since 2012. Elevated mortgage rates and modest resale inventory gains through October are tightening affordability and limiting buyer demand.

⚡ Power Becomes The Bottleneck For AI Campuses
Large scale data center projects continue to move forward despite concerns around speculative data center construction and financing concerns. Goldman is in talks to co-lead financing for a 5 gigawatt Texas AI power campus; developer GridFree plans to bypass utility grid constraints and deliver gas-powered, behind-the-meter electricity for the campus in under 24 months.

Fed minutes show path to lower rates but no urgency – Most officials back further cuts if inflation cools, though deep divisions and strong growth keep January off the table (Bloomberg)

Chicago business activity rebounded in December but stayed in contraction – The Chicago Business Barometer jumped 7.2 points to 43.5 but remained below 50 for a 25th straight month (WSJ)

Commercial real estate stabilizes in 2026 – Slower growth, higher unemployment, and reduced construction in 2025 set the backdrop for normalization rather than a sharp recovery (CNBC)

Capital markets reengage in 2026 as pricing resets – Easing debt costs, tighter bond spreads, and returning institutional capital are expected to lift deal volume and compress cap rates (CNBC)

REIT take-privates and M&A accelerate in 2026 – Public REIT valuations lag private markets, positioning the sector for consolidation as valuation gaps narrow (CNBC)

Copper headed for biggest annual gain since 2009 as supply bets intensify – Prices rallied over 40% in 2025 on electrification demand, tariff-driven dislocations, and expectations that Fed easing and tech investment would keep markets tight into 2026 (Bloomberg)

Los Angeles cuts allowable rent hikes to 1%–4% – The city will tighten rent controls for the first time in four decades starting in February, down from the prior 3%–8% cap on most multifamily apartments (WSJ)

U.S. home price growth slows to 1.4% YoY – The Case-Shiller national index posted its weakest pace since mid-2023 in October as elevated mortgage rates continued to curb demand (WSJ)

FHFA House Price Index rises just 1.7% in October – This marked the slowest YoY home price growth in more than 13 years, reaching back to the post-financial-crisis recovery in 2012 (Reuters)

The 1.7% YoY change is the slowest gain since 2012 and is being driven by affordability pressure from high mortgage rates and modest resale inventory gains through October.

Private lending shifted toward long-term DSCR loans in 2025 as investor strategies evolved – DSCR loans surpassed bridge lending for first time with volumes up 94% YoY versus 27% growth for bridge loans (HousingWire)

Holiday 2025 retail traffic rose despite pressure – Retail and dining visits increased across most states, showing consumers stayed engaged even as spending remained selective (Placerai)

Holiday spending stayed bifurcated between value and premium – Thrift, off-price, and wholesale clubs outperformed while luxury held up and mid-tier apparel continued to lose traffic (Placerai)

Self-gifting drove holiday category winners – Pet care and home improvement outpaced traditional gift categories as consumers prioritized everyday utility over discretionary gifting (Placerai)

Big Tech channels hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure as compute demand surges – OpenAI, Meta, Nvidia, Google, Oracle, and SoftBank committed capital across chips, cloud, and data centers in deals ranging from $10B to $500B, accelerating pressure on power, land, and digital infrastructure supply chains (Reuters)

Goldman co-leads financing for 5-gigawatt Texas AI power campuses – The South Dallas One project is seeking hundreds of millions of dollars in initial equity and credit to build private gas-fired generation for data centers (Bloomberg)

Power and grid access have increasingly become the primary obstacle for data center development. Developer GridFree plans to bypass this constraint by pairing behind-the-meter (BTM) gas-fired generation with direct pipeline supply from Energy Transfer to allow modular 100-megawatt power blocks to come online in under 24 months without reliance on grid interconnection or diesel backup generators.

xAI expands Memphis, TN data center capacity to nearly 2 GW – Elon Musk’s AI company bought a third building near its Colossus sites to scale training compute (Bloomberg)

Columbia Property Trust hit with default notice on $1.9B CMBS loan tied to office portfolio anchored by 650 California Street and 201 California Street in San Francisco, CA – Appraised value fell to $1.3B from $2.3B in 2021 across seven-building portfolio spanning SF, Manhattan, Boston, and New Jersey (TheRealDeal)

AXCS Capital acquires proptech startup Propvetter for under $1M – Deal brings AI-powered CRE underwriting and deal analysis platform in-house for George Smith Partners debt brokerage unit (CommercialObserver)