Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Thank you for your continued support! Today we’re seeing Federal Reserve independence risks, Home Depot’s push into the professional contractor market, and growing strain in NYC’s rent-stabilized housing sector. 

🏦 Fed Pressure Mounts

Trump’s calls for steep rate cuts and threats to reshape the Fed have renewed fears over the central bank’s independence. With Powell’s seat up in 2026 and names like Warsh and Bessent floated as potential replacements, markets face growing uncertainty around future monetary policy.

🔧 Home Depot Bets on Pros

Home Depot’s $4.3B acquisition of GMS marks a deeper shift away from DIY toward professional contractors, as it builds out a national platform anchored by its SRS unit. With discretionary home improvement spending weakening, the retailer is leaning into the more resilient Pro market to drive stable growth.

🏚️ NYC Stabilization Strain

New York approved rent hikes of 3% for stabilized apartments, while over 5,000 units face foreclosure due to mounting financial pressure. Mamdani’s rent-freeze push and affordability mandates on office-to-resi conversions have sparked investor concern and could stall redevelopment plans.

30Y Mortgage: 6.67% (-11 bps) 

10Y Treasury Yield: 4.22% (-6 bps)

WSJ Prime Rate: 7.50%

FTSE NAREIT Index: 764.15 (+0.46%) 

30-day SOFR Average: 4.32%

The US dollar’s sharp decline, combined with Trump’s pressure on the Fed and looming leadership changes, signals rising global uncertainty as markets brace for potential inflation, weaker policy credibility, and heightened geopolitical tension over trade

US dollar posts worst H1 since 1973 – 10% slide driven by Trump tariffs, rising debt, and Fed uncertainty triggers global investor pullback (FT)

Trump eyes Fed shakeup amid rate pressure – As he demands 1% rates and criticizes Powell as “too late,” Trump is considering appointing a dovish successor in 2026, with top candidates including Waller, Bessent, and Warsh (Reuters & Reuters)

Fed’s Goolsbee sees no stagflation risk – But warns both inflation and unemployment could worsen as Trump eyes Fed shake-up, with Powell’s seat set to open in 2026 (Reuters)

Fed’s Bostic warns tariffs could fuel sticky inflation – Atlanta Fed president sees gradual price hikes ahead, with businesses passing costs to consumers and only one rate cut likely in 2025 (Bloomberg)

South Korea seeks extension to 90-day U.S. tariff pause – Talks likely to continue past July 9 as Seoul pushes for more time to resolve non-tariff disputes raised by Washington (Reuters)

Home Depot will acquire GMS for $4.3 billion, or $5.5 billion including debt, outbidding Brad Jacobs’ QXO in a competitive race to consolidate the construction supply sector. The purchase expands Home Depot’s contractor-focused footprint and deepens its reach into wallboard, ceilings, and steel framing.

• GMS operates more than 320 distribution centers and 100 tool sales and rental locations serving both residential and commercial contractors
• The deal will be executed through SRS Distribution, Home Depot’s Pro-focused subsidiary acquired last year for $18 billion
• The combined platform will span over 1,200 locations and 8,000 trucks, allowing for large-scale jobsite fulfillment
• QXO, backed by Brad Jacobs, had offered $5 billion for GMS but was outbid as Home Depot moved to lock in the deal

Takeaway: Home Depot is scaling a national platform to capture a larger share of professional contractor spending. As consumer sentiment weakens and discretionary home improvement slows, the company is shifting beyond DIY projects to serve the more stable Pro market. The GMS acquisition builds on its earlier SRS deal, giving it stronger logistics, more product categories, and a clear path to deeper penetration in the contractor channel.

NYC’s rent stabilization policy continues to stir investor unease, as modest approved hikes clash with Mamdani’s freeze proposal and stricter affordability mandates threaten the viability of office-to-residential conversions.

House Dems reintroduce $100B housing equity bill – Proposal offers up to $25K in down payment aid for first-time buyers to boost homeownership and reduce racial disparities (NationalMortgageNews)

Supreme Court declines LA eviction case – Justices rejected landlords’ $20M claim over COVID-era moratorium, letting stand lower court ruling that no compensation was owed (Bloomberg)

NYC approves 3% rent hike for stabilized units – Two-year leases to rise 4.5% as Mamdani’s rent-freeze push fuels political tension (Bloomberg)

Mamdani rent-freeze plan threatens NYC office-to-resi conversions – 25% of units must be rent-stabilized to qualify for tax breaks, spooking investors despite 70% office discounts (WSJ)

Risk of home sellers taking a loss rises to 6% – Nearly 1 in 6 post-pandemic sellers and 1 in 10 condos are at risk of losing money, with San Francisco, Austin, and Orlando leading the decline (Redfin)

Median earners need $17K raise to buy typical U.S. home – Only 11 major markets remain affordable, down from 39 five years ago, as home values and mortgage rates climb (Zillow)

FL’s Cape Coral home prices fall 11% since 2023 – Florida’s worst-hit housing market faces rising foreclosures, surging insurance costs, and a glut of listings as builders and investors pull back (WSJ)

Employee-office misalignment persists – 92% support hybrid work, but most firms say in-office behavior falls short of leadership expectations (CBRE)

DC office vacancy hits 22.6% – Federal downsizing and weak GSA leasing drag totals, though high-end properties gain 534K sq. ft. as law firms drive demand for quality space (CBRE)

Snapchat to lease 156K SF Silicon Valley office – Snapchat will fully occupy 23andMe’s former Sunnyvale HQ at 221 N. Mathilda Ave., acquired this month by Spear Street Capital for $88M (CoStar)

Pinterest signs 83K sf lease at NYC’s 11 Madison Avenue – The social media firm will relocate from 225 Park Avenue South to SL Green Realty’s Midtown office tower (CommercialObserver)

​​The slowdown in industrial activity alongside resilient consumer demand highlights growing economic divergence, as businesses grow cautious amid tariff uncertainty and inventory overhang

U.S. factories and ports slowed sharply after April – Industrial activity declined in May and June as firms paused output following pre-tariff inventory stockpiling (Placer.ai)
Mid-2025 split shows strong consumer demand vs. industrial caution – The divergence signals economic uncertainty heading into the second half of the year (Placer.ai)

CRE demand softens amid young adult financial strain – High underemployment and stagnant wages among 22–27 year olds dampen housing formation, retail spending, and office use (GlobeSt)

Retail rebounds as tariffs ease – Shoppers returned in May and June, with value and off-price retailers leading foot traffic gains amid heavy promotions and weaker competition (Placer.ai)

Starwood, Blackstone, and Gotham fund $389M NYC tower – Trio backs 46-story LIC project with 561 units and 21K sf retail, developed by Baron Property and LargaVista (Bloomberg)

Apollo lends $252M on 3.6M SF industrial portfolio – Brennan Investment Group and Farallon Capital secure five-year loan for 21 light industrial properties across 17 U.S. markets (ConnectCRE)

Bridge Investment Group, Blaser Ventures, and Lowe Property Group secure $170M refi for Salt Lake City multifamily complex – Fannie Mae loan backs Post District, a 580-unit rental with retail in downtown SLC (ConnectCRE)

Goldman Sachs and Barclays issue $395M CMBS loan on industrial portfolio – The debt covers 1.55M sf of Amazon-leased last-mile warehouses owned by Stonemont Financial Group and Stonepeak Partners (CoStar)

Deutsche Bank and UBS issue $160M CMBS loan for NYC mixed-use – Refinance backs Rentar Development’s 1.43M sf Queens asset, anchored by Amazon and BJ’s (CommercialObserver)

Home Depot to acquire GMS for $4.3B – Deal expands Home Depot's pro contractor reach via SRS unit, adding drywall and ceiling supplier GMS’s U.S. and Canada footprint (Bloomberg)

Hyatt sells 15 Caribbean resorts to Tortuga Resorts for $2B – Hyatt offloads Playa-owned properties in Jamaica, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic while retaining long-term management contracts (Bloomberg)

Faropoint buys 1.8M SF industrial portfolio for $328M – Mapletree Investments exits U.S. warehouse assets in firm’s first major divestment (IREI)

CIA buys NoVA office for $246M – The agency acquired the 434K sf Dulles Discovery 2 building in Chantilly from Peterson Companies (CommercialObserver)

TMG Partners to acquire San Francisco’s Metreon Mall from Starwood Capital in $151M deal – The 312K-sf downtown retail center is over 90% leased, anchored by Target and AMC (TheRealDeal)

Related Companies and Newland Capital acquire former Forever 21 HQ in LA for $120M – Blackstone and Worthe Real Estate sell 1.8M sf site slated for industrial, IOS, and flex redevelopment by 2026 (CommercialObserver)

Macquarie launches $5B U.S. senior housing platform – Health Wave Partners to invest in core-plus properties across the country (PERE)

Over 5,000 NYC rent-stabilized apartments face foreclosure risk – Judge denied Pinnacle Group’s request to use rental income for upkeep, citing Flagstar Bank’s $564M lien (Bloomberg)

JLL launches AI-powered property management platform – New “Property Assistant” tool integrates Falcon, Yardi, and Prism to deliver tailored insights across retail, office, and industrial portfolios (GlobeSt)

AI-powered mailboxes improve last-mile delivery – Arrive AI’s secure, smart drop boxes aim to solve theft and access issues for unattended drone and robot shipments (GlobeSt)