Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Thank you for your continued support! Today we’re seeing home values fall 0.4% in January, Google double 2026 AI capex to $175B–$185B, and multifamily fundamentals firm.

🏡 Home Values Slip As Affordability Improves
In January, Zillow estimates that home values fell 0.4% MoM to $358,968; affordability is improving, as mortgage payments dropped 8.4% YoY. Other home price indexes, such as Case-Shiller, remain higher because they track closed repeat-sales with a lag, while Zillow’s Home Value Index uses Zestimate-based mark-to-market estimates that capture price cuts without relying on transaction data.

⚡ Big Tech Spending Confirms Compute Scarcity
Google raised 2026 AI capex guidance to $175B–$185B, as data center expansion and TPU buildout keep compute capacity constrained amid strong cloud demand and Gemini momentum. The demand for compute is only continuing to accelerate, and financing appetite remains intense: Cipher Mining’s Black Pearl Compute $2B junk bond drew $13B of demand to fund a 300MW AWS-leased Texas facility.

🏢 Multifamily Fundamentals Firm As Capital Returns
U.S. apartment occupancy rose to 94.7% in January, while asking rents increased 0.2% MoM for the first time in seven months as rent cuts begin to ease. Multifamily investment momentum is building as supply fears fade, and Marcus & Millichap says buyers are turning active again as financing improves and more distressed assets come to market while lenders clean house.

US services PMI holds at 53.8 in January – AI data center demand and tariff uncertainty are tightening supply chains and keeping input price pressures elevated despite slower new order growth (Reuters)

ADP private payrolls rise 22K in January, missing forecasts – Weak hiring points to cooling labor market; economists say momentum remains stagnant despite limited layoffs (Bloomberg)

Fed’s Cook says rates are only “ever so mildly” restrictive – The Fed can afford to wait on further cuts as inflation cools and tariff-driven price increases look temporary (Reuters)

U.S. home values fall 0.4% MoM to $358,968 in January – Zillow says affordability is improving as mortgage payments drop 8.4% YoY despite softer new listings (Zillow)

Most other home price indexes like Case-Shiller remain up because they track closed repeat-sales with a lag, while Zillow’s Home Value Index is built from real-time Zestimate-based mark-to-market estimates that capture price cuts and weakening demand earlier than transaction-based measures.

Most home sellers will choose to sit tight rather than sell at a discount, especially when locked into ~3% mortgage rates that make moving far more expensive.

30-year mortgage rates hold near 6.02%, close to 2025 lows – Zillow expects only modest further easing through 2026, supporting gradual affordability improvement as market activity slowly thaws (Zillow)

New-construction home sales growth concentrated in South and West regions in 2025 – Permissive zoning and available land continue to drive higher builder activity while Northeast remains constrained (Realtor.com)

Deportations show little impact on housing costs despite White House claims – Economists point to oversupply as the main driver of falling rents (WSJ)

D.E. Shaw pushes for board shake-up at CoStar over money-losing Homes.com bet – Activists want leadership change and a refocus on CoStar’s core data business (WSJ)

U.S. apartment occupancy rises to 94.7% in January as rent cuts ease – RealPage says asking rents increased 0.2% MoM for the first time in seven months, though rents remain down 0.4% YoY amid lingering Sunbelt supply (RealPage)

Multifamily investment momentum builds in early 2026 as buyers turn active again – Marcus & Millichap says capital is ready to deploy, financing is easing, and more distressed assets may hit the market as lenders clean house (GlobeSt)

Federal policy shifts boost affordable housing development as market-rate supply cools – Yardi Matrix says LIHTC and Opportunity Zone incentives are keeping affordable multifamily construction elevated even as overall completions fall (ConnectCRE)

US office outlook brightens as demand steadies after vacancy peaked at 14.2% in mid-2025 – CoStar expects tech-led leasing and obsolete space removals to stabilize the national office vacancy rate through 2026 (CoStar)

J.P. Morgan Chase signs 139K SF office expansion lease at Brookfield Properties’ Five Manhattan West in Hudson Yards, Manhattan, NY – Bank grows footprint to ~565K SF total at the tower in Q4 2025 as it continues to add space beyond 270 Park Avenue HQ (CommercialObserver)

Bank of Montreal signs 82K SF office lease at Durst Organization’s 151 West 42nd Street in Midtown Manhattan, NY – Canadian banking giant adds space at Times Square tower where it previously held over 200K SF across six floors (CommercialObserver)

MDVIP signs 49K SF office lease at BH Group and PEBB Enterprises’ Eclipse campus at 6600 North Military Trail in Boca Raton, FL – 11-year HQ relocation brings 421K SF office component to 98% leased as owners pursue mixed-use redevelopment plans (CommercialObserver)

Geico signs 21K SF office expansion lease at Carr Properties’ The Wilson at 7272 Wisconsin Avenue in Bethesda, MD – Insurance giant grows footprint to 121K SF total, fully leasing 348K SF trophy office tower (CommercialObserver)

Epsilon delays $650M EV battery materials plant in coastal North Carolina until late 2026 – Policy uncertainty and weaker EV demand are slowing major manufacturing commitments across the state’s industrial pipeline (Bisnow)

Target’s new CEO says the retailer lost trust with shoppers and staff – Michael Fiddelke is pledging to rebuild Target’s identity and customer connection as sales slump and internal tensions linger (Reuters)

Amazon doubles down on physical grocery with a new mega-store near Chicago – The push into brick-and-mortar aims to close the last-mile gap with Walmart’s 4,600-store footprint as grocery becomes the next battleground (Reuters)

Bob’s Discount Furniture raises $330.7M in IPO at a $2.22B valuation – The 200+ showroom furniture chain has been private equity-owned since 2014 (Reuters)

Simon Property Group plans $250M in luxury mall upgrades – The mall REIT is redeveloping three former Taubman centers in Nashville, Denver, and Tampa to boost high-end leasing and earnings growth through 2026 (Bisnow)

Bloomin’ Brands traffic diverges in Q4 2025 as higher-end concepts outperform – Fleming’s and Bonefish gained visits from higher-income trade areas ($102.6K and $88.0K median HH income); Carrabba’s visits fell 3.7% YoY while Outback stayed flat (Placerai)

Google doubles 2026 AI capex guidance to $175B–$185B – Spending surge reflects accelerating data center and TPU buildout as cloud demand and Gemini momentum keep compute capacity constrained (FT)

Incredible. Meta and Google alone plan to spend $290B–$320B on capex in 2026.

$2B Texas data center junk bond draws $13B of demand – Cipher Mining’s Black Pearl Compute priced 5-year notes at 6.125% to fund a 300MW AWS-leased facility (Bloomberg)

Despite concerns of a data center bubble and overbuilding of speculative data centers, investor demand for data center debt remains strong. Demand here, however, may be driven more by the fact that the facility is already leased by AWS.

GBT Realty plans to deploy $1.3B into retail development and shopping center acquisitions – The strip center owner is launching 33 build-to-suit projects with backing from AEW and aims to grow AUM from $1B to over $3B (Bisnow)

Build-to-suit retail allows developers to lock in a specific tenant before construction to reduce leasing risk; Grocery-anchored retail is having its moment.

Morgan Stanley sells $106M loan backed by Beacon Capital Partners’ Ratio Innovation Campus at 6401 Hollis Street and 1480 64th Street in Emeryville, CA – Note sale could set up deed-in-lieu takeover of 241K SF life sciences complex ahead of March maturity (TheRealDeal)

GreenState Credit Union seizes Opal Holdings’ 697K SF Corporate 500 office campus at 500 Lake Cook Road in Deerfield, IL via $66M credit bid – Sheriff’s sale hands lender control after $104M loan default and foreclosure judgment (TheRealDeal)