Hello Brick Brief Readers,

Happy Friday. Today we’re seeing Trump back away from his 401(k) down payment plan, Zillow forecast lower 2026 home price growth , and suburban offices gain as companies shorten commutes.

🏡 Housing Affordability Still Caps Growth
Trump backed away from his plan to allow 401(k) funds for home down payments amid concerns it could drive home prices higher; the president plans to outline a revised housing affordability plan during his late-February State of the Union address. In 2026, Zillow expects affordability constraints to continue capping home price growth (1.2%) while sustaining stronger single-family rent growth (2.2%) as entry-level buyers remain priced out of ownership.

🏢 Offices Follow The Worker
Flex office platform Industrious grew 58% in 2025 by capitalizing on hybrid work patterns and scaling high-quality neighborhood offices through landlord partnerships. As employees are no longer willing to commute into CBDs due to long commute times, companies are pushing return-to-office strategies by bringing the office to the worker in suburban markets rather than forcing daily travel.The Brick Breakdown

US GDP grew at a revised 4.4% pace in Q3, up from 4.3% – Bureau of Economic Analysis data shows resilient consumer demand and stronger exports offset weaker residential investment (Blooomberg)

US consumer spending accelerated in October and November – Strong services and goods outlays are supporting growth even as the labor market remains stuck in a low-hiring low-firing pattern (Reuters)

US jobless claims held steady at 200K in the week ending Jan. 17 - Claims beat forecasts as the four-week average hit a two-year low and the Federal Reserve prepares to hold rates steady (Bloomberg)

CRE prices fell ~3.5% annualized to close 2025, led by downtown office – MSCI data shows CBD office values dropped at a ~7.9% annualized pace in Q4, weighing on overall commercial property pricing (Bisnow)

Private-label CMBS issuance jumped 21% to $125.6B in 2025 – SASB deals accounted for $91.3B of volume as CMBS increasingly financed large trophy assets such as data centers (Trepp)

Trump backs away from allowing 401(k) funds for home down payments – Kevin Hassett said a revised housing plan will be outlined during Trump’s late-February State of the Union address (Bloomberg)

Elizabeth Warren urges Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to probe opaque AI data center financings – Lawmakers warn off-balance-sheet debt structures could amplify systemic risk as trillions flow into AI infrastructure (Bloomberg)

Home insurers draw regulatory fire as housing costs rise – Kathy Hochul and other state lawmakers are pushing profit caps as home-insurance premiums have outpaced inflation (WSJ)

Trump’s $200B mortgage-backed bond buying push is failing to move housing affordability – Economists say modest rate relief is being overwhelmed by tight housing supply and rising long-term yields that keep borrowing costs elevated (Reuters)

Long-term Treasury yields recently surged on geopolitical uncertainty tied to Greenland, pushing the 30-year mortgage rate from ~6.0% to ~6.2%

Zillow forecasts +1.2% home price growth in 2026 – Soft demand and rising inventory cap appreciation even as mortgage rates gradually ease and affordability improves at the margin (Zillow)

Zillow forecasts +2.2% single-family rent growth – Elevated mortgage rates keep more households renting and SFR supply tight, sustaining rent growth despite slower home price appreciation (Zillow)

Zillow expects affordability constraints to continue capping home price growth and sustaining stronger single-family rent growth as more entry-level homebuyers remain priced out.

Realtor.com weekly data ending Jan. 17 shows inventory +9.5% YoY and new listings +4.2% YoY – Homes are taking six days longer to sell; median listing prices are down 0.3% YoY as affordability caps demand (Realtor.com)

Redfin data for the four weeks ending Jan. 18 shows early signs of housing activity picking up as mortgage rates hit a 3-year low at 6.06% – Pending sales fell just 2.9% YoY and purchase applications jumped 5% WoW (Redfin)

Some early signs of pent-up demand - buyers capitalizing on affordability gains from mortgage rates near 6%

Inherited homes hit a record 7% of U.S. property transfers in 2025 – Aging-in-place and tax incentives are delaying inherited homes from meaningfully adding to housing supply (Cotality)

Zillow forecasts -0.1% apartment rent growth – A large wave of new multifamily deliveries is pushing vacancies higher and forcing concessions, offsetting steady renter demand (Zillow)

Fall 2026 student housing pre-leasing rebounded to 27.1% by December – RealPage data shows a second straight month of improvement after the slowest decade-start (RealPage)

Flex office platform Industrious grew 58% in 2025 – The CBRE-owned operator is scaling on demand for high-quality neighborhood offices as hybrid work and landlord partnerships drive flexible leasing (CNBC)

To promote collaboration after post-hybrid work normalization, companies are increasingly partnering with Industrious to deploy flexible, close-to-home offices. Employees are no longer willing to spend hours commuting into CBDs, so companies are bringing the office to where workers live to encourage in-person collaboration. Industrious’ strategy is designed to capitalize on new work patterns and suburban office outperformance, as the return-to-office push increasingly brings the office to the worker rather than forcing workers back into CBDs. 

And we can see this in the data. According to Colliers, suburban office vacancy fell 20 bps QoQ to 16.8% in Q4 2025, while CBD vacancy remained 50 bps above last year at 19.2%. That weakness can also be seen in pricing - CBD office values declined ~7.9% on an annualized basis in Q4 according to MSCI data. 

Ares nontraded REITs post 33%–48% rent growth on industrial lease renewals in 2025 – Strong renewal spreads highlight continued pricing power for high-quality logistics assets despite broader softness across U.S. industrial markets (CoStar)

Port of Los Angeles tops 10M containers for third time – The port handled 10.2M TEUs in 2025 despite weaker China imports (FreightWaves)

Convenience is becoming the next growth engine for Chipotle – Placer.ai data shows same-store traffic turning positive late in 2025 as sub-10-minute visits gained share and supported overall growth (Placerai)

Nvidia CEO says AI data center boom is driving six-figure construction jobs – Jensen Huang points to massive data center buildouts pushing construction wages sharply higher as spending on new facilities accelerates in 2026 (Realtor.com)

This broadly aligns with a recent WSJ article projecting negative annual growth across office, warehouse, hotel, and apartment construction, while data center construction is expected to grow 23% in 2026.

American Landmark raises $400M first close for latest multifamily investment fund – Florida-based firm plans to target value-add properties across Sun Belt markets following strong investor demand (CoStar)

Stealth slowdown creeps into U.S. warehouse market as industrial loan defaults rise – MSCI data shows a 5.1% YoY increase in industrial defaults as overbuilding, single-tenant risk, and quiet tenant pullbacks begin to pressure a once-resilient asset class (GlobeSt)

601W in talks to buy mortgage loan on Brookfield-owned Wells Fargo Center North Tower in DTLA for ~$180M – Deal implies ~$130 PSF valuation on distressed 1.4M SF office tower tied to ~$506M defaulted debt (TheRealDeal)

$350M nonperforming loan tied to 225 Bush Street office tower in San Francisco set to hit market – Owner Kylli defaulted on the debt after the building’s appraised value fell to ~$153M from ~$589M (TheRealDeal)

$87M CMBS loan tied to Blackstone’s 3300 West Olive Avenue office in Burbank, CA sent to special servicing – Wells Fargo–originated debt faces imminent default ahead of June maturity as office distress persists (CommercialObserver)

AI-powered CRE operations platform Cambio raises $18M – The funding supports scaling its agentic AI platform to process building data, surface retrofit opportunities, and guide investor-grade capital decisions across a global asset base (Bisnow)