The Brick Breakdown

Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Thank you for your continued support! Today we’re seeing a possible July rate cut, mortgage relief for homebuyers, and business caution delaying industrial leases. 

📉 July Rate Cut Back on the Table

Fed Chair Powell remains cautious on rate cuts, citing a strong economy and the need to assess tariff impacts, though he did not rule out a July move. Treasury Secretary Bessent expects easing by September, aligning with rising market bets on near-term cuts

🏡 Mortgage Relief Boosts Buyers
Mortgage rates have fallen to a 3-month low of 6.67%, giving $3,000/month buyers up to $16,000 more in purchasing power. The drop offers a reprieve in a tight market, helping offset high prices through concessions and rate buydowns.

🏭 Industrial Caution Grows
U.S. factory activity contracted for the fourth straight month in June, with ISM PMI rising slightly to 49.0 but still below the growth threshold. Prologis notes that trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks are stalling industrial leasing, though long-term demand remains supported by e-commerce and reshoring trends.

This Week in Real Estate: Key Events & Data

Quick Markets

30Y Mortgage: 6.67% 

10Y Treasury Yield: 4.24% (+2 bps)

WSJ Prime Rate: 7.50%

FTSE NAREIT Index: 768.37 (+0.46%) 

30-day SOFR Average: 4.32%

Market Pulse

Financial markets are increasingly pricing in near-term rate cuts after Fed Chair Powell declined to rule out a July move and Treasury Secretary Bessent projected easing by September, as signs of a cooling economy emerge even while the labor market remains relatively strong.

The Senate passed Trump’s $3.8 trillion tax package, which includes Medicaid cuts, a higher SALT cap, and an EV rollback, though it now faces Republican pushback in the House over deficits and healthcare provisions.

Fed Chair Powell sticks to wait-and-see rate stance – Fed holds off on cuts as solid economy allows time to assess tariff impacts, but Powell declines to rule out a July move, pushing market odds of a cut this month to 1 in 4 (WSJ & Reuters)

Treasury Secretary Bessent sees Fed rate cut by September – Says tariffs haven't been inflationary, aligning with Fed's stated criteria for easing despite personal disagreement (Reuters)

Trump tax bill passes Senate, faces GOP backlash in House – $3.8T package with Medicaid cuts, SALT cap hike, and EV rollback draws pushback over deficits and healthcare cuts (Bloomberg & Bloomberg)

Factory activity contracts for 4th straight month – June ISM PMI rises to 49.0 but stays below growth threshold as tariff uncertainty slows orders and hiring (WSJ)

Job openings unexpectedly rise to 7.77M in May – Hospitality drives gains, but hiring dips and tariff uncertainty points to labor market cooling (Reuters)

Trump eyes trade deal with India before July 9 tariff deadline – Signals 27% levy could be avoided, while casting doubt on Japan deal and floating 35% tariff threat (Reuters)

Construction spending falls 3.5% YoY in May – Total outlays drop to $2.14T as private residential and nonresidential activity weakens, while public spending stays flat (CensusBureau)

Brick by Brick: Rocket Closes Redfin Deal to Launch One-Stop Homeownership Platform

Rocket Companies completed its $1.75B all-stock acquisition of Redfin, uniting the mortgage giant’s financing arm with Redfin’s home search platform and agent network. The merger sets the stage for an integrated homebuying experience, bolstered by the launch of Rocket Preferred Pricing.

• Redfin brings 50M monthly visitors, 1M active listings, and over 2,200 agents into Rocket’s ecosystem
• Buyers who use Rocket for financing and either purchase a Redfin-listed home or work with a Redfin agent can now get a one-percentage-point rate reduction in year one, or up to $6,000 in closing cost credits
• The merged platform is expected to debut additional tools for buyers, agents, and brokers, with the new identity “Redfin Powered by Rocket”
• Rocket is also working toward completing its acquisition of Mr. Cooper later this year, expanding its servicing and digital mortgage footprint

Takeaway: Rocket’s strategy is to control the full homebuying journey, from search to close. By embedding financing into Redfin’s platform and offering tangible rate incentives, Rocket is trying to convert traffic into funded loans. The deal signals a shift toward bundled real estate solutions that simplify the consumer experience while building loyalty across Rocket’s product lines.

Policy & Industry Shifts

Policymakers are reshaping the regulatory and development landscape, with moves to preserve local control over rent algorithms, accelerate California housing approvals, and cut federal lease footprints while real estate groups push back on MLS restrictions

Senate kills AI rent ban override – Local and state restrictions on rent-setting algorithms like RealPage’s will remain after federal preemption language is struck from budget bill (Bisnow)

California enacts CEQA reforms to speed development – Gov. Newsom signs AB 130 and SB 131 to exempt infill housing, clinics, and green projects from environmental review delays (CommercialObserver)

Home platform PLS sues NAR over pocket listing rules – New antitrust case challenges “clear cooperation” policy that blocks exclusive listings from non-MLS platforms (Reuters)

FBI to remain in D.C. with HQ move to Reagan Building – Trump cancels $2B Greenbelt plan in favor of former USAID space on Pennsylvania Ave, citing cost savings and downtown consolidation strategy (Bisnow)

DOGE slashes 217K sf of Florida government leases – GSA-led cuts hit Miami-Dade and Broward hardest, with 77K sf already canceled and 723K sf at risk in 2025 (TheRealDeal)

Residential

Mortgage rates fell to a three-month low of 6.67 percent, increasing buyer purchasing power and helping ease affordability pressures as sellers offer more concessions

Mortgage rates fall to 3-month low – 6.67% average gives $3K-budget buyers $16K more purchasing power, boosting affordability and buyer leverage amid rising concessions (Redfin)

Condo prices fell 2.2% in May – Rising HOA fees and insurance costs push U.S. condo sales down 12%, with Florida metros leading price and volume declines (Redfin)

Sun Belt housing cools as listings pile up – Days-on-market rise in Florida and Colorado as insurance hikes, investor exits, and stalled rate hopes shift once-hot markets toward balance (Bloomberg)

Southern cities sweep top renter rankings – McKinney, Sarasota, and Atlanta lead RentCafe’s 2025 list, driven by affordability, job growth, and high-end apartment stock (RentCafe)

Regional

Manhattan asking rents jump 20% after FARE Act – New law banning broker fees led to fewer listings and a sharp rent spike, as landlords test higher pricing amid limited supply (GlobeSt)

Office

Office performance remains uneven across markets, with Manhattan posting its strongest leasing start in a decade despite short-term occupancy dips, while D.C. leasing slows and vacancy stabilizes due to limited construction

Office occupancy dips to 52.8% in heat-shortened week – NYC led declines with a 2.9-point drop, while Class A+ buildings hit 93.3% peak day occupancy (KastleSystems)

Manhattan office leasing hits 10-year high – Despite a 19% Q2 dip, 2025 H1 demand reached 20.6M sf, the strongest start since 2014 and 42% above last year’s pace (CommercialObserver)

D.C. office deals shrink in Q2 – Only three D.C. leases over 50K sf signed, led by DOJ’s 403K sf renewal with 175K sf reduction as law firms also downsize (Colliers)

Limited construction steadies D.C. vacancy – Conversions and slow development helped stabilize D.C.’s office vacancy rate despite weak leasing (Colliers)

Industrial

Industrial leasing has slowed as companies delay commitments amid trade and geopolitical uncertainty, though Prologis reports long-term demand remains strong thanks to e-commerce growth, reshoring, and efficiency-driven expansion

Industrial leasing stalls amid economic volatility – Shifting trade policy and geopolitical risks have pushed companies to delay commitments, swelling the pipeline of deferred leasing activity (Prologis)

Industrial fundamentals remain robust – E-commerce growth, U.S. reshoring, and efficiency mandates continue to drive long-term demand for logistics space despite near-term headwinds (Prologis)

High incomes, tight supply boost Northeast industrial growth – Warehouse job growth is projected to rise 0.2%, supported by wealthy households and expanding logistics infrastructure (CushmanWakefield)

Market Mix

Retail

Starbucks visit gap narrows in 2025 – Stable customer base and in-store innovations aim to revive frequency amid drive-thru and at-home coffee competition (Placer.ai)

Financings

Loans

Four Seasons Deer Valley lands $600M loan for Utah ski resort – Extell secures state’s largest-ever hotel and condo construction financing from JVP for ski-in/ski-out resort, now 40% sold (ConnectCRE)

Blackstone provides $515M loan for Jersey City, NJ multifamily – Financing will complete construction and lease-up of Kushner’s 1 Journal Square, with Phase 1 already 30% pre-leased (CommercialObserver)

Blue Flag lands $54M loan for New York Sag Harbor hotel – Blue Owl finances Baron’s Cove upgrades as Blue Flag and Bain Capital revamp the historic 67-room property (TheRealDeal)

Downtown Brooklyn, NY multifamily project lands $53M loan – Ponce Bank backs Jay Group’s 99-unit development at 165 Willoughby Street (TheRealDeal)

Refinancings

Shapack Partners-led venture lands $247M Chicago refi – Focus, Walton Street secure CMBS loan from Deutsche Bank for 167 Green Street office, 92% leased in strong Fulton Market submarket (TheRealDeal)

M&A

Company M&A

Rocket completes $1.75B Redfin acquisition – Rocket launches “Preferred Pricing” offering buyers up to 1% rate reduction or $6K in credits when using Redfin agents or listings with Rocket Mortgage (HousingWire)

Steve Ross buying 45% stake in Miami tennis Open – Billionaire Related founder expands South Florida sports portfolio, joining Endeavor, RedBird, and Apollo in tournament deal (TheRealDeal)

Circle K parent sheds 35 gas stations for $1.6B GetGo deal – Couche-Tard offloads locations in Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania to MAPCO to satisfy FTC conditions for acquiring Giant Eagle’s 270-store c-store chain (Bisnow)

Building & Portfolio M&A

FalconEye acquires Phoenix, AZ’s Scottsdale Quarter for $645M – Tech CEO George Kurtz's firm plans $100M in upgrades to the 755K sf mixed-use hub (BusinessWire)

Town Lane buys $261M Raleigh-Durham, NC industrial portfolio – 2.7M sf shallow bay warehouse deal spans 55 buildings and 40 acres, with KKR providing $407.6M loan and Equus retaining minority stake (ConnectCRE)

Bain Capital and 11North Partners acquire $212M OKC, OK retail portfolio – Three open-air centers in Oklahoma City change hands in a private transaction (CoStar)

Related, BH, Dezer buy Sunny Isles Beach, FL condo for $131M – Trio acquires oceanfront Miami Beach Club site at 19051 Collins Ave with plans for redevelopment (CommercialObserver)

Institutional Fundraising

Walker & Dunlop closes $240M Low-Income Housing Tax Credit fund – Fund 124 will finance 1,701 affordable units across 18 properties in 10 states including CA, TX, and FL, marking its largest fund to date (IREI)

Distress Watch

$360M California portfolio faces fire-sale risk – Bankruptcy fight over 18 properties including Hotel Laguna stalls reorganization, with liquidation or trustee-led sales likely to destroy value (Bloomberg)