Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Happy Monday. In recent news, Trump’s 100% tariff threat against China rattled markets, Congress advanced major housing and REIT reform bills, and multifamily investors continued to raise fresh capital despite a softening rent outlook.

Been a while since I’ve been this sick, but I hope to resume normal programming as soon as possible.

🇨🇳 Trump’s 100% Tariff Threat Rattles Markets
Markets sold off after Trump threatened 100% tariffs on China and announced new software export curbs. New trade developments will remain front and center for all investors, including real estate, this week due to rising uncertainty and the potential for broader business and investment disruptions.

🏛️ Congress Moves on Housing Rules
The Senate passed the bipartisan ROAD to Housing Act to expand credit access and cut red tape as it heads to the House. Meanwhile, lawmakers proposed limits on healthcare REIT sale-leasebacks after Steward Health’s bankruptcy exposed how aggressive lease structures can strain hospital finances and threaten patient access.

🏘️ Multifamily Capital Flows
Pantzer Properties raised $1B for an East Coast multifamily fund targeting institutional-quality apartments. Despite RealPage forecasting rent growth below 2% nationally through Q3 2026 amid weaker hiring and tariff uncertainty, investors may see opportunity in East Coast markets with tighter supply and steady demand.

Quick Markets

30Y Mortgage: 6.32% (-6 bps)

10Y Treasury Yield: 4.06% (-8 bps) 

WSJ Prime Rate: 7.25%

FTSE NAREIT Index: 751.07 (-1.15%) 

30-day SOFR Average: 4.23%

Trump reignites trade war with China – Beijing blames Washington for escalation after Trump’s 100% tariff and software export ban announcement, vowing countermeasures as markets tumble and a fragile truce collapses (Reuters, FT)

Economists see stronger growth but weaker hiring – WSJ survey finds AI investment lifting GDP forecasts while job creation slows to just 15,000 per month in Q4 (WSJ)

Consumer sentiment holds steady in October – Americans remain worried about inflation and job prospects, keeping spending cautious and limiting momentum in housing and retail activity (Reuters)

Fed officials flag labor risks – Williams and Daly support more rate cuts to counter job softness, while Barr urges caution amid persistent inflation concerns (Reuters)

Fed’s Musalem urges caution on cuts – Inflation remains high, limiting room for further easing (Reuters)

Fed’s Waller backs cautious cuts – Governor said weak labor data supports gradual 25 bp reductions, signaling a measured path (Reuters)

Insight: Fed officials remain split as some emphasize labor market weakness to justify further cuts while others warn that persistent inflation limits room for additional easing.

Senate passes ROAD to Housing Act to boost supply and affordability – The bipartisan bill, cosponsored by Elizabeth Warren and Tim Scott, aims to expand housing credit access and cut red tape as it heads to the House (ConnectCRE)

Senators propose limits on REIT sale-leasebacks – A new bill from Markey, Sanders, and Blumenthal would let HHS review healthcare leases and curb deals like Steward Health’s $1.25B sale to Medical Properties Trust that led to bankruptcy (Bisnow)

California approves landmark density law – Gov. Newsom signed SB 79 allowing up to 9-story housing near major transit stops across eight counties, overriding local zoning to spur transit-oriented development (CommercialObserver)

Gen Z shifts from housing to equities – With homeownership out of reach, young Americans are choosing stock market investing as their primary wealth-building path (WSJ)

Affordable rentals under $1,000 remain scarce – Only 13 of the 100 largest U.S. metros have more than one-third of listings below $1,000, concentrated in Midwest and Southern cities like Wichita and McAllen (Zillow)

AI boom fuels luxury housing surge in San Francisco – Mansion sales jumped 14% YoY as wealthy tech buyers drive bidding wars and tighten inventory, even as lenders seize more downtown offices amid defaults (TheRealDeal)

RealPage forecasts rent growth below 2% through Q3 2026 – The outlook reflects weaker hiring, tariff uncertainty, and 323K new units expected to deliver nationwide (RealPage)

Trump’s 100% China tariffs risk major supply chain disruption – Import costs and shipping volatility could surge as firms shift sourcing to Mexico and Southeast Asia (FreightWaves)

BevAlc retail traffic holds strong – Visits remain 40–60% above 2019 levels, with Florida and Texas metros leading growth while California and Northeast markets cool as pandemic gains stabilize (Placer.ai)

Digital infrastructure leads U.S. CRE outlook – Data centers and logistics remain top-performing sectors, while renewed office demand and capital inflows signal early signs of market rebalancing (Deloitte)

U.S. CRE recovery slows amid high rates and policy uncertainty – 75% of executives still plan to boost investment as sentiment and fundamentals stabilize heading into 2026 (Deloitte)

$1.7T in U.S. CRE debt nears maturity – New lending rebounds with stronger structures as private credit and banks cautiously reenter the market (Deloitte)

Centennial Bank provides $168M construction loan for Glasshouse at O-Town West in Orlando, FL – Unicorp secured the financing to add 591 apartments across three buildings, bringing the luxury multifamily project to over 900 units (ConnectCRE)

QuadReal provides $100M construction loan for data center in Chantilly, VA – Penzance secured the financing to build the pre-leased three-story Chantilly Premier facility in Fairfax County’s Data Center Alley (CommercialObserver)

City National Bank of Florida provides $60M construction loan for 308-unit multifamily project in Miami-Dade, FL – Alta Developers secured the financing to build an 11-building rental community in the Princeton neighborhood (CommercialObserver)

Bain Capital and Smith Hill Capital provide $216M refinancing for 774-room Westin New York Grand Central Hotel in New York, NY – Procaccianti Companies secured the loan for the Midtown property near Grand Central Terminal (IREI)

Pantzer Properties raises $1B for new multifamily fund – The East Coast–focused vehicle will target institutional-quality apartment assets (CommercialObserver)

Affiliated Development launches $250M fund for mixed-income housing in Florida – The firm raised $50M in initial commitments to back projects like The Ray, a 400-unit development in Sunrise (TheRealDeal)

U.S. office late payments jumped 42 bps in September – CMBS delinquencies climbed to 8.1% amid a rise in major office loan defaults across key markets (Reuters)

Bank CRE delinquencies hold steady at 1.94% in Q2 – Trepp reports $6B in new originations and a 20-bp quarterly drop in office loan delinquencies to 6.13%, signaling gradual improvement in credit quality (Trepp)

Blue Ocean targets real estate tokenization – The trading platform expands into blockchain-based assets to unlock liquidity in property markets (Reuters)