Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Thank you for your continued support! In recent news, Treasury yields surged on inflation fears, the Senate passed a housing bill limiting institutional investors, office visits improved, and Dollar General flagged pressure from its core shoppers.

🛢️ Oil Shock Pushes Rates Higher
The 10Y Treasury yield rose to 4.26% while the 30Y mortgage rate rose to 6.41% as oil prices rose above $103; inflation fears are pushing rate cut expectations further out as traders now fully price the next Fed cut in mid-2027. The Pentagon currently estimates the Iran war could last 4–6 weeks, adding pressure on oil prices as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and risks to global oil flows persist.

🏠 Housing Bill Heads to Negotiations
The Senate passed a housing bill that will bar investors owning 350+ homes from buying more and requires some single-family rentals to be sold within several years; next steps will include negotiations in the House, where lawmakers are expected to push changes to the investor restrictions and the seven-year forced sale requirement. To address housing affordability, Trump also signed two housing executive orders to ease mortgage rules for community banks and pressure states and local governments to cut permitting delays and costly regulations that have slowed new-home construction.

🏢 Office Recovery Gradually Improves
Office visits rose to their smallest February gap since COVID, but remain 31.9% below pre-pandemic levels as return-to-office momentum gradually improves nationwide. San Francisco led major US markets with visits up 11.9% YoY as AI hiring and tech activity continue driving office demand in the city.

Other key news today includes:

Pentagon estimates Iran war could last 4–6 weeks as energy prices remain elevated – Brent crude closed above $103 with risks to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz (Bloomberg)

Treasuries slide as oil rises above $100 and inflation fears push rate-cut expectations further out – Traders fully price the next Fed cut in mid-2027 as higher energy costs raise inflation concerns (Bloomberg)

U.S. core CPI rose 0.2% in February before Iran war – Underlying inflation eased as rent of primary residence increased just 0.1%, slowest pace in ~5 years (Bloomberg)

U.S. job openings rose to 6.95M in January while layoffs declined – Hiring remained subdued as vacancies per unemployed worker held at 0.9 (Bloomberg)

Barclays delays Fed rate-cut forecast to September – Bank now expects only one 25 bp cut in 2026 as oil-driven inflation risks from Middle East conflict keep pressure on prices (Reuters)

Affinius Capital says CRE entering early-stage recovery as liquidity returns – Firm’s 2026 North America House View report says pricing adjustments are working through markets and capital gridlock is beginning to ease (IREI)

CRE prices stabilize across most property sectors as repricing shifts to large institutional assets – Trepp TPPI shows smaller and mid-size properties holding steady while large deals continue adjusting to higher borrowing costs (Trepp)

U.S. sale-leaseback deal volume rises 18% to $14.4B in 2025 as M&A rebounds – Market recorded 714 transactions as companies tapped sale-leasebacks for alternative capital amid improving corporate deal activity (IREI)

Senate passes housing bill with investor limits – Legislation bars investors owning 350+ homes from buying more and requires some single-family rentals to be sold within seven years, drawing industry opposition over risks to build-to-rent development (Bloomberg)

Next steps for the housing bill will include negotiations in the House, where lawmakers are expected to push changes to the investor restrictions and the seven-year forced sale requirement. House Republicans and some Democrats have already signaled they want revisions to protect build-to-rent development and other housing supply incentives, setting up a clash with the Senate version that could force the legislation back into negotiations before it can reach the president’s desk.

Trump signs housing executive orders to boost affordability – Orders aim to ease mortgage rules for community banks; administration says changes could lower mortgage rates by ~0.5% and speed new home construction (WSJ)

Trump’s housing executive order aims to boost housing supply by pressuring states and local governments to cut permitting delays and costly regulations that have slowed new-home construction and limited development.

Study warns Massachusetts rent control could cut $300B in property values – Analysis estimates residential property tax revenues could fall 7.5% short term and up to 18% long term if the ballot measure passes (Bisnow)

HUD appeals court ruling blocking homeless housing overhaul – Agency seeks to revive plan to shift $4B Continuum of Care funding away from the Housing First model (Bisnow)

U.S. home prices rise just 0.2% YoY to $375,885 in February as housing market stabilizes – Mixed metro trends signal normalization rather than boom or bust conditions (Homes.com)

Mortgage rates jump to 6.41% as Iran conflict lifts Treasury yields – Spike erases recent drop to 5.99% and adds ~$115 to monthly payment on $400K home, threatening spring housing demand (CNBC)

Adjustable-rate mortgages regain popularity – Buyers are turning to ARMs for lower initial rates as mortgage costs stay above 6% and affordability pressures persist (WSJ)

US single-family housing starts fall in January – Starts dropped 2.8% to 935,000 units while permits declined 0.9%, signaling weak momentum for new home construction (Reuters)

New home listings rise 0.5% YoY in four weeks ending March 8 as sellers test spring market – Improvement marks first increase since November as mortgage rates near 6% encourage homeowners to relist (Redfin)

Nearly 20% of mortgaged homeowners could save by refinancing but few are doing so – Only 9.1% of eligible borrowers have refinanced despite mortgage rates falling to ~6% (Redfin)

Institutional investors account for just ~1% of U.S. single-family home purchases and their share is shrinking – Most investor activity now comes from small “mom-and-pop” buyers, who make up over 60% of investor purchases (Realtor.com)

AI boom reignites San Francisco housing market – Home prices surge with rents up 14% YoY, single-family prices up 23%, and bidding wars returning amid tight inventory and high-paid tech buyers (WSJ)

California insurance crisis spreads beyond wildfire zones – FAIR Plan enrollment surged 43% as insurers retreat, with low-risk urban homes increasingly pushed into the state’s last-resort coverage (Bloomberg)

‘Accidental landlords’ reach near-record share of rental listings as unsold homes shift to rentals – 2.3% of homes for rent were previously listed for sale, second-highest level on record (Zillow)

Luxury condos dominate U.S. condo market – Branded residences surged 150% from 2012 to 2022 and are expected to double again by 2027 as demand concentrates at the high end (CommercialObserver)

Office visits remain 31.9% below pre-pandemic levels in February 2026 – Smallest February gap since COVID as return-to-office momentum gradually improves nationwide (Placerai)

February marks strongest post-COVID office attendance for the month – Office visits 31.9% below 2019 levels despite Northeast snowstorms disrupting NYC and Boston (Placerai)

San Francisco office visits rise 11.9% YoY in February – AI hiring and tech activity help drive strongest office recovery among major U.S. markets (Placerai)

Office occupancy rebounds to 56.9% across Kastle’s 10-city index in week ending March 10 – Usage returned to mid-January record high after prior week’s winter weather disruptions (KastleSystems)

Boston coworking space grows faster than national market – Inventory rose 26% YoY to ~6M SF as high office vacancies create expansion opportunities for flexible workspace operators (Bisnow)

ICE rapidly leasing office space across U.S. as immigration funding surges – GSA signed 150 leases since 2025, often prioritizing speed and move-in readiness over lowest price (Bisnow)

U.S. Railroad Retirement Board leases 100K SF at 231 South LaSalle Street in Chicago, IL from Beacon Capital Partners – Federal agency relocating from 844 North Rush Street and shrinking footprint from ~282K SF (TheRealDeal)

Large industrial leasing rebounds in 2025 – Deals for 500K+ SF warehouses surged 32% YoY as tenants consolidate into newer large-format logistics facilities (Bisnow)

U.S. manufacturing expands for second straight month with PMI at 52.4 – Strong new orders signal resilient industrial demand despite weather disruptions (Placerai)
E-commerce fulfillment activity growing high-single to low-double digits – Omnichannel investments and record product returns driving logistics demand (Placerai)

Industrial CMBS delinquency rate sits at just 0.67% with occupancy near full across major U.S. markets – Strong fundamentals continue to attract capital as industrial originations reached ~$3.8B in Q4 2025 (Trepp)

Retail REITs report record occupancy and rising lease commitments entering 2026 – Grocery-anchored centers continue benefiting from limited supply and strong tenant demand (CoStar)

Retail traffic remains positive YoY across most categories in 2026 – Essential retail continues outperforming discretionary spending as consumers stay price sensitive (Placerai)

U.S. consumers increasingly bifurcated between value and discretionary spending – Shoppers cutting costs on essentials to afford targeted discretionary purchases (Placerai)

Lego plans U.S. retail and manufacturing expansion after strong 2025 sales – Toymaker opening Virginia factory and expanding Lego Store footprint beyond major metros (Bisnow)

AI boom fuels tech borrowing surge – Big Tech is issuing tens of billions in debt to fund data centers and infrastructure as companies plan ~$650B in AI spending this year (Bloomberg)

US Department of Energy to invest $1.9B in power grid upgrades – Funding aims to expand transmission capacity and support rising electricity demand from AI data centers and electrification (Reuters)

Brazoria County, TX rejects tax break for $3.5B data center campus – Nightpeak Energy still plans two 310MW hyperscale facilities and colocated power plants despite local opposition (Bisnow)

Lowell, MA imposes one-year moratorium on new data center development – City pauses projects while officials review zoning rules and assess power grid and infrastructure impacts (Bisnow)

U.S. hotel demand rises for fifth straight week – RevPAR increased 4.8% to $105 in early March, driven by major events including Las Vegas’ CONEXPO construction trade show (CoStar)

Life sciences real estate expected to normalize in 2026 – Post-pandemic lab construction boom left oversupply and high vacancies after developers rapidly expanded space (CommercialObserver)

Lennar Q1 home deliveries miss estimates – Builder delivered 16,863 homes vs. 17,677 expected as high mortgage rates and affordability pressures continue to weigh on demand (Reuters)

Dick’s Sporting Goods forecasts stronger sales on steady demand – Retailer sees resilient demand for athletic footwear and apparel despite broader consumer spending pressures (Reuters)

Dollar General forecasts muted 2026 sales as low-income shoppers pull back – Discount retailer sees 2.2% to 2.7% same-store sales growth amid weakening consumer spending (Reuters)

Consumers remain barbelled between premium and value spending, but Dollar General expects weaker demand from its core shoppers earning ~$40K–$50K who are under pressure from rising living costs and signs of labor market softening.

Fertitta Entertainment is in talks to acquire Caesars Entertainment for ~$7B – Potential deal would add 50+ casino resorts across the U.S. to Tilman Fertitta’s hospitality empire (TheRealDeal)

Savills to acquire Eastdil Secured for $1.1B – Deal expands Savills into institutional investment sales and could spark consolidation across commercial real estate brokerages (CoStar)

$260M REIT Stratus Properties to liquidate and wind down operations – Austin-based REIT plans to sell remaining assets and return capital to shareholders after completing strategic review (Bisnow)

Bridge Housing raises $92M for affordable housing fund – Capital from institutional investors will help acquire thousands of West Coast units with a long-term goal of deploying $1B (CommercialObserver)

Deutsche Bank flags US commercial real estate as key risk – Non-performing CRE loans rose to €3.6B and provisions climbed to €613M as refinancing pressure and weak office markets drive uncertainty over future defaults (Bloomberg)

Burlington and Ross bid for Saks Off 5th leases – Discount retailers move to take over stores vacated after Saks Global’s bankruptcy and planned closures (Bisnow)

JLL leans into AI across brokerage platform – Firm says 40% of support staff now use internal AI tools and ~80% of investment sales processes leverage AI to build buyer lists (Bisnow)