Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Happy Monday. In recent news, we’re seeing surging mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ramping up mortgage-backed securities purchases, and Amazon investing $4B to build rural delivery hubs to expand its logistics network.

🔥 Rates Reprice On Inflation Risk

Markets are rapidly repricing toward tighter policy as energy-driven inflation fears build, with 30-year mortgage rates rising 10 bps to 6.53% and 10-year Treasury climbing 15 bps to 4.40%. Oil prices have surged to near $112 after a 50% jump since February, and the Fed is signaling readiness to respond if inflation accelerates. Officials have flagged geopolitical risk and energy costs as key upside threats.

Other key news today includes:

Fed Chair Powell praises former Fed Chair Volcker’s fight against inflation – Signals commitment to Fed independence as Trump pushes for rate cuts (Reuters)

Oil fluctuates near multi-year highs as Hormuz tensions escalate – Brent holds ~$112 after surging 50% since late-February strikes; supply disruptions and geopolitical risk are threatening a new wave of global inflation (Bloomberg)

Fed officials warn Iran war is clouding outlook as rate hike bets rise – Energy-driven inflation risks are shifting expectations away from cuts toward tighter policy (Reuters)

Markets price in rising odds of Fed rate hike in 2026 – Shift driven by Iran-driven inflation risks as expectations swing away from rate cuts (Reuters)

Rising gas prices hit 55% of US households as fuel costs surge – Majority expect further increases amid Iran-driven oil supply disruption (Reuters)

Higher gas prices not only raise the cost to transport goods, but also directly impact consumer behavior due to their visibility. They push inflation expectations higher, which can further drive broader inflation.

Construction costs rise at 12.6% annualized rate to start 2026 – Energy-driven input price surge threatens new development and adds pressure on project feasibility (Bisnow)

Global real estate fundraising rises to $172B in 2025, first YoY increase since 2021 – Higher rates keep capital below prior peaks; opportunistic, value-add and debt strategies dominate (Bisnow)

CMBS defeasance activity shifts toward stronger borrowers post-2022 slowdown – Lower volumes but higher-quality loans signal selective refinancing and sales activity (Trepp)

State Street and Voya shift toward mortgage-backed securities – Investors rotate away from corporate bonds as rising energy prices and inflation fears increase credit risk (NationalMortgageNews)

US judge strikes down Treasury rule requiring disclosure of cash real estate buyers – Ruling blocks nationwide effort to curb money laundering in property transactions (Reuters)

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ramp up MBS purchases – Agencies step in as buyers amid widening spreads and rising volatility in mortgage bond markets (HousingWire)

US new home sales fall to 587K in January, lowest since October 2022 – Decline comes despite improved affordability as weak demand and rising inventory weigh on activity (Zillow)

US rent growth slows to 1.9% in February as supply expands – Rising vacancies and concessions give renters more leverage despite still-elevated affordability pressures (Zillow)

59% of Americans say AI will reduce jobs and hurt housing affordability – Concerns over income stability and rates reflect growing uncertainty around AI’s economic impact (Redfin)

Accidental landlords rise to ~2.2% of rental listings in November, near highest since 2022 – Increase reflects unsold homes lingering on market as demand weakens and sellers shift to renting (WSJ)

Built-for-rent multifamily starts rise 18% in Q4 2025 – Rental units account for 95% of 96,000 starts; condo pipeline remains flat at 6,000 units (HousingWire)

SF office recovery diverges as foot traffic lags leasing surge – Weekday visits remain ~50% of 2019 levels despite record 8M SF demand and rising AI-driven leasing activity (TheRealDeal)

The disconnect is primarily driven by hybrid work that reduces consistent in-office attendance and is further compounded by delayed tenant move-ins from recently signed leases. Office utilization remains structurally below pre-pandemic levels due to employees splitting time between home and office and fewer workers being present on any given day

Amazon invests $4B to build rural delivery hubs across 13,000 ZIP codes – Expansion cuts reliance on USPS and pushes two-day shipping deeper into underserved regions (WSJ)

Amazon has also rolled out 1-hour delivery across major U.S. metros, continuing to push the limits of delivery speed and efficiency to outcompete other e-commerce players through scale and in-house logistics control.

Truckers squeezed as diesel tops $5.20, up ~40% since Iran war – Margin pressure is pushing small operators toward potential exits as fuel costs spike (WSJ)

McDonald’s limited-time menu launches drive modest, short-lived traffic gains – Weak follow-through suggests consumers are more price-sensitive and need value offerings to sustain visits (Placerai)

Nuclear reactor developer X-Energy files for US IPO – Seeks to capitalize on AI-driven power demand and nuclear revival backed by Amazon and utilities (Reuters)

X-Energy is a nuclear developer building small modular reactors designed to deliver reliable, always-on power for AI data centers and other energy-intensive infrastructure. The company is still pre-revenue

AI data center boom drives surge in demand for skilled trade workers – Labor shortages are pushing wages higher as infrastructure buildout accelerates (CNBC)

Illinois imposes stricter power rules on data centers – Developers must post larger deposits and fund grid infrastructure upfront; 35,000MW of demand is pushing capacity costs to record highs and raising concerns over speculative projects (TheRealDeal)

Senior housing REIT Janus Living raises $840M IPO at $6B valuation – Shares jump 18% on debut as demand surges for aging population-driven housing sector (Bloomberg)

SL Green refinances $2B corporate credit facility in Manhattan, NY – Borrowing cost reduced by 25 bps with extended maturities as part of broader $7B 2026 financing plan (CommercialObserver)

NY affordable housing owners face surging insurance costs amid budget talks – Premiums have more than doubled, pressuring property finances and prompting calls for state intervention (Bisnow)

Bank OZK seizes 320K SF life sciences building in Chicago, IL from Sterling Bay tied to $65M construction loan – Lender takes control of vacant property through deed-in-lieu (TheRealDeal)

State-Wide MLS rolls out RealReports AI tools to 6,000 agents – Rhode Island’s agent-only property database integrates AI and tax data to streamline workflows and reduce platform fragmentation (Inman)