Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Happy Friday. Today we’re seeing buyers reenter the market as affordability improves, CRE prices firm in October, and Walmart gain momentum from value-seeking households across all income groups.

🏡 Buyers Step Up as Affordability Improves
October existing-home sales rose 1.2% MoM to an eight-month high, while home prices rose 2.3% YoY in the four weeks ending November 16 as buyers took advantage of rates that dipped into the low-6% range. This move suggests that a further drop in borrowing costs would likely unlock a much larger wave of sidelined buyers who remain highly sensitive to even modest affordability gains.

🏢 CRE Pricing Firms as Visibility Improves
CRE pricing rose 4.2% YoY in October and gained 0.8% MoM as industrial, retail and office led MSCI’s strongest annual gain in three years. At the same time, Hines reports clearer valuation resets and stronger pricing visibility in its core-plus fund, which has deployed over $575M into deals where stabilized income and operational focus make late-2025 underwriting more predictable.

🛒 Middle-Class Strain Drives Value-Seeking Behavior
Middle-class households face prices that sit 25% above 2020 levels, and essentials continue to erode their purchasing power during a slower inflation backdrop. Walmart is benefiting from this shift as it beat Q3 expectations and raised its full-year forecast on the strength of double-digit e-commerce growth and a surge of value-seeking customers across incomes.

30Y Mortgage: 6.36%

10Y Treasury Yield: 4.09% (-5 bps)

WSJ Prime Rate: 7.25%

FTSE NAREIT Index: 751.19 (-0.35%)

30-day SOFR Average: 4.08%

The economy added jobs in September in a low-hire, low-fire environment; Fed officials remain uneasy about front-loading more cuts as sticky inflation keeps them cautious about easing too quickly.

Middle-class strain deepens as prices sit 25% above 2020 levels – Essentials like coffee, ground beef and car repairs keep climbing and leave consumers feeling worn down despite cooler inflation (WSJ)

US added 119,000 jobs in September as unemployment rose to 4.4% – Payroll gains beat expectations, but the labor market stayed sluggish in a “no-hire, no-fire” environment shaped by tariffs, AI adoption and a rising labor force (Reuters)

US weekly jobless claims fall to 220K while continuing claims climb – Fewer people filed initial claims, but nearly 2 million remain on benefits as weak hiring makes it harder for the unemployed to find new jobs (Reuters)

Fed's Goolsbee is uneasy about a third straight rate cut – He warned that front-loading cuts amid sticky services inflation and limited fresh data leaves him unsettled heading into the December meeting (Reuters)

Fed's Hammack warns more rate cuts risk fueling inflation and market excess – She argued that easing now could prolong above-target inflation and encourage risky lending as financial conditions stay accommodative (Reuters)

CRE pricing rose 4.2% YoY in October and 0.8% MoM – MSCI’s All-Property Index posted its strongest annual gain in three years as industrial, retail and office outperformed while apartment pricing inched up 0.5% YoY (ConnectCRE)

REIT M&A gains momentum as buyers target discounted valuations – Nearly $3B in take-private deals since September reflects stronger debt availability and widening public-to-private pricing gaps (Bisnow)

Hines’ flagship core-plus fund sees valuation resets and stronger pricing visibility – The firm has deployed over $575M across recent deals as it navigates late-2025 conditions with a tighter focus on operations and stabilized income (IREI)

University innovation districts outperform traditional CRE – JLL finds these university-anchored hubs post lower vacancy and rent premiums across office and retail as stable research institutions drive consistent demand and investment (GlobeSt)

Existing-home sales rose 1.2% MoM in October to an eight-month high – A slight dip in mortgage rates pushed activity to a 4.1M annual pace as more buyers returned (WSJ)

Home prices rose 2.3% YoY in the four weeks ending November 16, the biggest gain in seven months – Tight supply kept values rising even as demand stayed soft and pending sales slipped (Redfin)

Insight: Existing-home sales in October mostly reflect contracts signed 30–60 days earlier when rates dipped into the low-6% range, which shows that buyers immediately stepped up as affordability improved. This move suggests that a further drop in rates would likely bring a much larger group of sidelined buyers back into the market. 

Large-office options are shrinking as premium space dries up – CoStar reports fewer trophy buildings can house 100K+ SF tenants, leaving major occupiers with the tightest big-block availability since 2020 (CoStar)

County of Orange expands its lease by 100K SF at 1700 East St. Andrew Place in Santa Ana, CA – The county will more than double its footprint at Drawbridge Realty’s office building and occupy the full property through 2042 (CommercialObserver)

Self-storage demand stays resilient even as major REITs drop up to 16% YTD – Higher rates and construction costs have slowed new development and softened asset values, but demographic-driven life events continue to support sector fundamentals (Bisnow)

Amazon to invest $3B in a Mississippi data center campus – The company will build a new facility in Warren County as part of its expanding US cloud infrastructure push (Reuters)

SoftBank to invest up to $3B in an Ohio factory for OpenAI data centers – The overhauled Lordstown EV plant will produce modular data center units for the Stargate buildout in Texas and other sites (Reuters)

OpenAI partners with Foxconn to boost US data center hardware – The deal focuses on co-designing server racks and power systems as OpenAI scales its AI infrastructure (Bloomberg)

Insight: AI is currently selling off on worries about stretched valuations, bubble chatter, and circular big-tech deal flow. However, every day we see a new barrage of data center investments from tech giants fighting to stay ahead. If you believe AI will deliver revolutionary productivity and efficiency gains for employees, companies, and the broader economy, then the need for compute is real.

Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta plan to spend hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure, and Zuckerberg even announced plans to spend roughly $600B over the next three years, effectively staking his company on this opportunity set (if it proceeds). The firepower being deployed is both staggering and frightening; the real question is what these tech leaders see that makes them so willing to pivot away from their historically low capex, high-margin business models and commit to such unprecedented investment.

Washington DC hotel recovery remains weak post-shutdown – Heavy reliance on federal travel dragged RevPAR and occupancy lower, and CoStar expects a prolonged rebound (CoStar)

Walmart beat Q3 earnings and revenue expectations and raised its full-year forecast as double-digit e-commerce growth and a surge in value-seeking customers across incomes lifted demand (CNBC)

CIM Group provides a $93.1M acquisition loan to DivcoWest for the 399 Boylston office and retail building in Boston, MA – DivcoWest will use the financing to acquire the 245K SF Back Bay property from a Blackstone affiliate for about $125M (ConnectCRE)

13th Floor Investments and Key International secure a $79.2M construction loan for a 327-unit multifamily project in Delray Beach, FL – CIBC Bank USA provided the financing for the Skye apartments at the Parks at Delray mixed-use development (TheRealDeal)

Brookfield secures a $1.1B recapitalization for its U.S. logistics portfolio – The refinance included a $752M CMBS loan and a $309.6M balance sheet loan that backs 27 industrial properties across the Inland Empire, Northern New Jersey, South Florida, and Washington, D.C. (CommercialObserver)

Merritt Properties seeks a $620M refinance for a 58-property, 6.2M SF industrial portfolio in Baltimore, MD – The firm is pursuing the loan to lock in lower-cost capital across its regional holdings (Bisnow)

Carlyle and Gotham secure a $260M refinance for the Aire luxury multifamily tower in New York, NY – Natixis provided the floating-rate loan to refinance 200 West 67th Street and fund apartment and amenity upgrades (TheRealDeal)

Olmstead Properties buys two Flatiron office buildings in New York, NY for $104M – ATCO Properties & Management sold 373 Park Avenue South and 381 Park Avenue South; Bank of New York provided roughly $82M in acquisition financing (CommercialObserver)

Legal & General buys 177-unit Outlook Golden Ridge multifamily property in Golden, CO for $81.9M – Evergreen Devco sold the 544 Golden Ridge Road complex in partnership with Taurus Investment Holdings (TheRealDeal)

Advenir Azora buys 249-unit multifamily property in Pompano Beach, FL for $60.9M – Bell Partners sold the 4611 North Federal Highway community, and JLL Capital Markets arranged a $53.3M Freddie Mac acquisition loan (CommercialObserver)

Brookfield’s Centersquare buys two data centers in Santa Clara, CA for $97M – Menlo Equities sold the adjacent properties at 4650 and 4700 Old Ironsides Drive as the data center platform expands its West Coast footprint (TheRealDeal)

Kayne Anderson raises $2.5B for Fund VII – The LA firm is on pace to exceed its $3B target for its seventh opportunistic real estate fund (PERE)

Artemis Real Estate Partners raises $1B for healthcare and senior-housing real estate – The fund targets U.S. medical office and senior-living assets amid strong investor demand (PERE)