Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Happy Monday. Important recent news include,

Treasury yields jump ~50 bps as Iran-driven oil shock fuels inflation fears, threatening spring housing demand – Bonds fail as safe haven amid persistent inflation concerns (WSJ)

US weighs operation to seize ~1,000 pounds of Iranian uranium as Marines deploy to region – Iran warns it will destroy US forces if ground invasion occurs (WSJ)

JPMorgan and Pimco warn markets are underestimating slowdown risk from Iran war – Rising oil prices and borrowing costs are increasing recession odds even as yields surge (Bloomberg)

JPMorgan is warning of a potential slowdown driven by a demand shock, which could ultimately lead to lower rates. Inflation from higher oil prices could squeeze consumers and businesses, triggering weaker demand and forcing the Fed to ease policy as growth deteriorates. This is a key risk to watch as consumers were already trading down and prioritizing value before the war, making a demand shock more likely if costs rise further.

US consumer sentiment falls to 53.3 in March from 56.6 in February – Inflation expectations rise to 3.8% as war-driven oil surge pressures outlook (Reuters)

Fed’s Barkin says economic “fog” is deepening – War-driven oil shock and AI uncertainty support holding rates steady (Reuters)

U.S. job growth expected to rebound in March with ~60K payroll gains – Unemployment seen holding at 4.4% as hiring remains sluggish and inconsistent (Bloomberg)

U.S. commercial property prices rose in February for eighth time in nine months – Value-weighted index increased 1.7% YoY, outpacing 1.3% growth for lower-priced assets (CoStar)

Tariffs and Iran war keep construction costs elevated – Steel prices jumped 11.9% in 2025, while labor costs, which make up over 65% of total construction costs, rose more steadily (TheRealDeal)

Senate housing bill to boost supply faces uncertainty over investor homebuying ban – Dispute over institutional buyers is holding up broader affordability and construction reforms (CNBC)

Rising Treasury yields may dampen spring housing demand – Higher mortgage rates are shifting deals toward concessions and rate buydowns to help bridge affordability gaps (Homes.com)

Affordability pressures lock renters in place across U.S. – Analysis of 2024 Census data shows young, family, and long-term renters make up over 80% of households as rising costs limit mobility and homeownership access (Realtor.com)

Property tax revenues rise nearly 5% in 2025 – Collections extended a nine-quarter streak of increases across state and local jurisdictions (NationalMortgageNews)

US apartment concessions hold at 16.7% in February – Discount usage remains at highest level since 2014 as elevated supply pressures rents (RealPage)

FTC targets rental “junk fees” as landlords increase add-on charges amid high costs and weak rent growth – Proposed rules would require full fee transparency as vacancies rise to 8.6% and rent growth slows to 0.4% YoY (Bisnow)

Terrabank leases 40K SF at Tourmaline Capital Partners’ One Alhambra Plaza in Coral Gables, FL – The 15-year deal relocates and expands the bank’s headquarters (CommercialObserver)

OpenAI leases 202K SF industrial facility at 1411 Harbour Way South in Richmond, CA – The space supports logistics, warehouse, and distribution use as the company expands its Bay Area footprint (TheRealDeal)

OpenAI has previously signaled plans to expand into hardware, and this lease indicates the company is beginning to build out the physical infrastructure needed to support that shift.

Retail earnings show uneven performance as value-focused retailers like Walmart gain share – Consumer spending holds up but shifts toward discount segments (CoStar)

PE-backed 449-store convenience chain Yesway files for US IPO – Chain operates across nine states in the Midwest and Southwest (Reuters)

Lawmakers propose federal moratorium on AI data center development – The bill would halt new projects amid concerns over energy use, costs, and environmental impact (CoStar)

Meta funds 7 gas plants to power Louisiana data center with ~5.2 GW capacity – AI data center demand is reshaping US power infrastructure and driving massive energy buildout (Bloomberg)

Miami, San Francisco, and Los Angeles lead US hotel booking gains ahead of 2026 World Cup – Early demand signals occupancy and pricing upside for host market hotels (CoStar)

U.S. hotel demand rose 3.3% YoY during the week of March 15–21, driven by March Madness and conference travel – RevPAR rose 4.9% and occupancy reached 67.7% (CoStar)

Eli Lilly signs AI drug development deal with Insilico worth up to $2.75B to accelerate discovery pipeline – Pharma ramps AI investment to shorten timelines and drive next wave of drug innovation (Bloomberg)

The real estate implications remain uncertain here. On one hand, AI-driven drug discovery could reduce reliance on traditional wet lab space by shifting early-stage research into computational workflows, which may dampen demand for certain R&D footprints in the near term; however, AI may widen the top of the funnel by accelerating early-stage discovery. This could lead to more drug candidates advancing into physical testing and clinical development, increasing overall demand for lab space since these stages still require in-person experimentation and cannot be fully simulated.

Aligned Data Centers secures $2.58B credit facility backed by six US data centers to fund late-stage development – Institutional capital expands beyond banks to finance AI-driven data center buildout (Bloomberg)

Janus Living recently raised $840M via an IPO

NorthPoint Development closes $1.5B industrial fund – Fund VII will target U.S. warehouse and logistics assets in markets including Chicago, Sacramento, and Greensboro with value-add leasing upside (CommercialSearch)

HomeServices of America launches AI-powered Maestro platform for agents – The system integrates search, CRM, marketing, and transaction tools to streamline workflows and boost productivity (HousingWire)