Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Thank you for your continued support! Today we’re seeing forecasts for a stabilizing housing market that contrast with Fitch’s outlook from yesterday, alongside rising industrial momentum and a widening retail split.

🏡 NAR vs. Fitch: Competing Views on 2026 Housing
NAR sees a modest 2026 rebound as improving sentiment and slightly lower rates unlock pent-up demand, while Fitch expects a flat market as consumer strain, rising delinquencies, and a weakening job market continue to limit affordability. On the other hand, James Hardie, which sells siding, trim, and decks for new construction and renovation and serves as a bellwether for housing demand, raised its full-year forecast after seeing stabilizing conditions and normalized inventories.

🏭 Industrial Momentum Turns Upward
Colliers and Prologis point to industrial momentum rebuilding as demand firms, supply pipelines shrink, and vacancy steadies into a healthier 2026 setup. This shift marks a turning point as reshoring, automation, and rising power needs pull users toward modern Class A space while gateway-market absorption climbs and utilization moves toward expansionary levels.

💼 Private Equity Activity Picks Up Across Housing and Leisure
Gibraltar, a building-products supplier focused on residential and infrastructure markets, expanded its housing platform through the acquisition of roofing manufacturer OmniMax from private equity firm Strategic Value Partners for $1.34B. At the same time, private equity firms are making acquisitions in leisure assets as Bain Capital agreed to buy golf-club operator Concert Golf for over $1.3B while Leonard Green is in talks to acquire Topgolf for ~$1B.

30Y Mortgage: 6.38% 

10Y Treasury Yield: 4.13% (-2 bps)

WSJ Prime Rate: 7.25%

FTSE NAREIT Index: 757.14 (-0.65%)

30-day SOFR Average: 4.10%

Vice Fed Chair Jefferson sees rising labor-market risks and stalled inflation progress – He says downside employment pressures now outweigh inflation risks distorted by tariffs and argues for a cautious, meeting-by-meeting approach (WSJ & Bloomberg)

Fed’s Waller urges a December rate cut to support a weakening labour market – His call highlights a growing split inside the Fed as other officials warn inflation near 3% keeps risks tilted toward tighter policy (FT)

Job market tightness is fading – Applications are rising for low-pay, high-stress jobs and employers are gaining leverage as hiring slows and unemployed workers remain out of work longer (Bloomberg)

Court broadens lease-termination rules in bankruptcy – A Massachusetts ruling says landlords face stricter limits on damages because lease termination and surrender under Section 502(b)(6) can occur before formal state-law termination (Reuters)

LA developers rush into 100% affordable projects – A new policy that cuts approval times from a year to 60 days has turned all-affordable housing into the city’s most competitive development play (WSJ)

Chicago homeowners face a 16.7% property tax jump as office values sink and strain school and pension funding – The drop in Loop commercial values cut revenue and shifted more of the load onto households citywide (Bloomberg)

More than half of U.S. homes lost value over the past year – Zillow says 53% of homes are down YoY and 4.1% are below their last sale price, though only 3.4% of new listings are priced below prior sale as most owners still hold strong equity (Zillow)

NAR sees a modest 2026 housing rebound – Lawrence Yun forecasts a 14% jump in existing home sales and mortgage rates easing to 6% as affordability improves (Homes.com)

Insight: NAR's view slightly differs from Fitch Ratings ' prediction from yesterday, which forecasts a relatively flat housing market through 2026. NAR sees rising mortgage applications, tight inventory, and early signs of buyer interest returning right now, so they expect modest rate declines in 2026 to unlock pent-up demand. Fitch sees weakening fundamentals instead with affordability still stretched, a weakening job market, construction costs rising, and delinquencies climbing. NAR is reading current sentiment and momentum, while Fitch is forecasting through the lens of income trends, household debt, economic drag, and a weakening job market. 

Realtors also want to see more transaction activity, so they naturally tend to lean more optimistic in their outlook. It will be interesting to see whether affordability gains from lower mortgage rates or the consumer strain Fitch flags end up dominating.

New-home mortgage applications fell 2.6% in October – MBA says lower rates, builder concessions and more ARM usage still pushed new-home sales to a 771K annual pace, the strongest in over a year (HousingWire)

Dallas–Fort Worth leads US office demand – Finance-sector growth and aggressive economic development fuel DFW’s resilience as national office trends stay mixed (CoStar)

Booz Allen Hamilton leases 310K SF at Reston Station in Reston, VA – The firm is moving its headquarters from Tysons and shrinking its footprint by 27% with a full-building lease at 1870 Reston Row Plaza and additional space at 1800 Reston Row Plaza (Bisnow)

GFI Group expands to 129K SF at 55 Water Street in New York, NY – The financial services firm renewed and added 65K SF to consolidate operations into a 17-year lease with landlord Retirement Systems of Alabama (CommercialObserver)

Colliers and Prologis both see industrial momentum rebuilding into 2026. Their outlook points to stronger demand, slower supply, and stabilizing vacancy creating a more durable growth cycle.

Industrial outlook brightens for 2026 - Demand, reshoring, and automation rebuild momentum and set up a more balanced, sustainable growth cycle as economic clarity improves (Colliers)

Industrial supply and demand realign as Q3 2025 delivers 60M SF of net absorption against 65M SF of new supply – Demand hit its strongest level since early 2023 while construction fell 62% from its 2022 peak, marking the first clear return to balance in three years (Colliers)

Industrial vacancy holds at 7.4% as it nears its cyclical peak – The rate posted the smallest quarterly increase since 2022 and should stabilize as development slows and demand firms (Colliers)

Prologis sees gateway-market demand rising – Inland Empire and New Jersey should lead a three-year high in absorption as modern Class A space fills and rents reset (Prologis)

Prologis sees U.S. warehouse utilization tightening – Facilities are on track to hit expansionary levels in 2026 as retailers, e-commerce firms and manufacturers max out capacity (Prologis)

Prologis sees power constraints shaping leasing – Limited grid capacity across major U.S. hubs is making power-ready buildings a top priority for automation and manufacturing users (Prologis)

Retail bifurcates as value and luxury outperform – Off-price, thrift, and luxury apparel gain visits while mid-tier chains and casual dining lose traffic amid polarized consumer spending (Placer.ai)

Authenticity and omnichannel drive winners – Brands with clear identity like Trader Joe’s, Sprouts, and Barnes & Noble post consistent visit growth as AI fulfillment, dark stores, and BOPIS tighten the online-to-offline loop (Placer.ai)

Suburban and Gen Z markets reshape footprints – Retailers accelerate suburban expansion and college-town growth, while celebrity and influencer pop-ups boost Gen Z and affluent family engagement at top malls (Placer.ai)

Fiber cement siding manufacturer James Hardie shares rose 7% after it raised its full-year forecast as management pointed to more stable market conditions and normalized inventory levels than it had assumed in its prior outlook. The gain comes one quarter after the stock plunged 34% in its worst day since 1973 following results that warned demand for home repairs and construction in North America remained weak.

X-Caliber and CastleGreen provide a $285M construction loan for a resort project in Osage Beach, MO – Tegethoff Development will use the financing to build The Oasis at Lakeport, a 402-room Marriott resort and entertainment complex (CommercialObserver)

Naftali Credit Partners provides a $62M loan for a multifamily property in Hollywood, FL – FundRebel will use the financing to refinance Nine Hollywood at 1809 Jackson Street and fund tenant improvements and reserves (CommercialObserver)

Cortland Partners secures a $192M refinance for a 1,137-unit multifamily portfolio in Miami, Denver and Dallas – Freddie Mac provided the loan to refinance four properties across the three metros (IREI)

Building-products supplier Gibraltar buys roofing manufacturer OmniMax for $1.34B – The deal expands Gibraltar’s residential platform and marks an exit for PE firm Strategic Value Partners (WSJ)

Bain Capital buys Concert Golf in a deal valuing the operator at over $1.3B – The acquisition gives Bain control of a 39-club platform built through 14 add-ons under Clearlake’s ownership (Bloomberg)

PE firm Leonard Green in talks to buy Topgolf in a deal valuing the venue operator at about $1B – Negotiations continue as Topgolf Callaway explores a potential sale of its entertainment-driven driving-range business (WSJ)

Seritage Growth Properties, the REIT formed to sell Sears’ real estate, now has all but six assets in the sale process – Four properties under contract total $240.8M and three more in negotiations add $47.3M as the company advances toward final liquidation (Bisnow)

Pacific Urban Investors buys 208-unit Eleve multifamily property in Glendale, CA for $76M – Equity Residential sold the seven-story building at 200 East Broadway; Berkadia provided a $19M note (TheRealDeal)

Sixth Street buys The Clancy hotel in San Francisco, CA for $115M – Braemar Hotels & Resorts sold the 410-room property at 299 Second Street in one of the Bay Area’s largest hotel deals of the year (TheRealDeal)

Braemar is a $181M luxury hotel REIT that is currently exploring a full sale of the company.

MSCI sees a wave of 2026 CRE maturities driving more distress – Over $930B of loans are set to come due after years of extensions, and MSCI expects foreclosures to accelerate as higher rates pressure mezzanine-heavy capital stacks (Bisnow)

CMBS distress rises to 11.4% in October – CRED iQ reports mounting pressure from maturing office debt as special servicing climbs to 11% and delinquency holds at 8.59% (CommercialObserver)

Brookfield’s $515M CMBS loan on its 740K SF office stake at 620 Eighth Avenue in New York, NY is sent to special servicing – Brookfield requested the transfer as $750M of total debt and falling cash flows complicate refinancing before next month’s maturity (CommercialObserver)