Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Happy Friday. Today we’re seeing cooler jobs data and firm CPI set up a Fed cut, Opendoor soar on leadership news, and quick-service retail outpace weakening malls.

📉 Fed on Track for September Cut
Jobless claims climbed to 263K, the highest since October 2021, underscoring a cooling labor market. August CPI rose 2.9% YoY with core at 3.1%, keeping the Fed on course for a 25-bp cut next week, though elevated inflation may slow the pace of further easing.

🚀 Opendoor Rockets on Leadership Shake-Up
Opendoor shares jumped 79% to $10.52 after naming former Shopify executive Kaz Nejatian as CEO and bringing back co-founder Keith Rabois as chairman. The stock had traded below $1 earlier this year and faced a Nasdaq delisting threat, and despite today’s rally there have been no meaningful changes in the underlying business, making the surge largely a short-squeeze and sentiment-driven move.

🛍️ Retail Winners and Losers
Quick-service restaurants and coffee shops are driving U.S. retail leasing, with over 2,700 new openings accounting for nearly 20% of leases in the past year. In contrast, mall traffic tied to tourism is slipping and consumers remain cautious, while dollar stores capture more foot traffic and sales as shoppers hunt for value.

30Y Mortgage: 6.27% (-2 bps)

10Y Treasury Yield: 4.03% (-2 bps)

WSJ Prime Rate: 7.50%

FTSE NAREIT Index: 784.50 (+1.60%) 

30-day SOFR Average: 4.37%

Rising jobless claims show a cooling labor market while firm 2.9% inflation keeps pressure on prices, leaving the Fed on track for a 25-bp cut next week but signaling a cautious path for further easing

Jobless claims climb to 263K, the highest since Oct 2021 – Surge highlights a quickening labor-market slowdown even as continuing claims hold at 1.94M (WSJ)

Core CPI rises 0.3% in August while headline CPI increases 0.4% MoM and 2.9% YoY – Steady inflation keeps the Fed on track for a rate cut next week but may slow additional easing (Bloomberg)

August CPI rises 2.9% YoY with core CPI at 3.1% – Firm inflation driven by tariffs and goods costs keeps pressure on prices even as a September Fed rate cut remains on track (WSJ)

Fed expected to cut rates by 25 bps next week to 4.00–4.25% – Markets see continued easing through year-end as rising jobless claims outweigh 2.9% inflation concerns (Reuters)

Opendoor shares surged 79% to $10.52 after the company named former Shopify executive Kaz Nejatian as CEO and brought back co-founder Keith Rabois as chairman, a dramatic rebound for a stock that traded below $1 earlier this year and faced possible delisting.

🧱 The stock had been battered for much of the past year as rising mortgage rates and a cooling housing market eroded volumes and profitability, pushing shares under $1 and putting the company at risk of a Nasdaq delisting.

🧱 Hedge fund manager Eric Jackson of EMJ Capital then helped ignite the rally with a viral post comparing Opendoor to Carvana’s 2022 turnaround. He highlighted deep cost cuts, a pivot to an agent-assisted sales model, and the prospect of positive EBITDA next quarter, arguing that revenue could grow to $12 billion and justify a multibillion-dollar valuation.

🧱 Opendoor was founded in 2014 by Keith Rabois, Eric Wu, and a team of Silicon Valley entrepreneurs to simplify home transactions. Backed by investors like Khosla Ventures and GV, it grew quickly and went public through a SPAC in 2020 with the aim of modernizing residential real estate with instant cash offers and digital closings.

🧱 The company operates a technology-driven iBuying platform that purchases homes directly from sellers, makes light renovations, and resells the properties for a margin while charging service fees and offering financing options. Its model depends on accurate home pricing and the ability to turn inventory quickly.

🧱 The return of Rabois and other founders has now energized investors who view the leadership change as a catalyst for sharper execution and a clearer growth strategy, even though housing demand remains soft and interest rates are still elevated.

🧱 The stock’s latest surge also reflects a short-squeeze dynamic and retail enthusiasm, with traders who bet against Opendoor forced to buy shares to cover positions, helping drive gains of more than 500% year-to-date.

🧱 Opendoor’s move to “founder mode,” with Rabois and Eric Wu back on the board, signals a push toward faster product development and heavier use of artificial intelligence to streamline home transactions, which could improve margins if the housing market stabilizes.

Takeaway: Investor excitement over new leadership and a return to founder-led strategy has ignited a powerful rally to $10.52, but the company still faces the same housing-market headwinds and thin margins that challenged it before, leaving questions about whether this surge reflects lasting improvement or short-term speculation.

Even with mortgage rates at an 11-month low, affordability remains strained as higher prices, rising insurance costs, and only modest inventory growth keep buyers cautious

Mortgage rates fall to an 11-month low of 6.28% – Lower payments boost buyer power by $20K, but rising home prices and cautious sentiment keep pending sales and new listings nearly flat (Redfin)

U.S. foreclosures rose 18% YoY in August to a rate of one filing for every 3,987 homes – Nevada led with one in 2,069, followed by South Carolina (1 in 2,152) and Florida (1 in 2,512) (Homes.com)

Active inventory up 18.4% YoY as of Sept. 6 – New listings slipped 1.9% and median list price fell 0.9%, the first annual price drop since spring as homes sit longer on the market (Realtor.com)

75% of Americans fear homeowners insurance will become unaffordable – 47% already face or expect policy issues as premiums climb and climate risks grow, prompting many buyers to change search areas or strategies (Realtor.com)

Women favor hybrid work while men lean toward more office time – Cushman & Wakefield finds women 32% more likely to work remotely for fewer distractions and better work-life balance, while men cite stronger social connections in-office (GlobeSt)

AI-related hiring jumps despite tech slowdown – U.S. tech jobs grew 1.1% in 2024 but AI roles rose 9%, driving office demand in major hubs like SF Bay Area, Seattle, and Manhattan (ConnectCRE)

Affirm in talks for 47K SF HQ lease at 221 Main Street, San Francisco, CA – The BNPL firm is negotiating a two-floor deal with PIMCO Prime Real Estate (TheRealDeal)

Placer.ai Manufacturing Index traffic fell 5.6% YoY in August – Mixed signals from PMI gains and ISM weakness highlight manufacturing uncertainty and cautious on-site activity (Placer.ai)

U.S. container imports expected to fall 3.4% through year-end – Retailers warn tariffs and trade uncertainty will raise costs after July volumes hit 2.36M TEUs, the second-busiest month since May 2022 (FreightWaves)

Self storage valuations fall 12% from 2023 peak – Average price slipped to $159 psf in Q2 2025 as transaction volume hit $2.85B and cap rates averaged 5.8% (CushmanWakefield)

Self storage rent growth cools – Asking rents no w average $128 per unit, down from the $134 high in 2022, with construction slowing amid high costs and limited debt (CushmanWakefield)

IOS rents up 123% since 2020 – Industrial outdoor storage holds half the vacancy of bulk warehouses as zoning limits and infrastructure demand tighten supply (GlobeSt)

Quick-service restaurants and coffee shops are driving retail leasing gains, while tourism-dependent malls lag and dollar stores see rising traffic and sales

Restaurants, bars, and coffee shops drive U.S. retail leasing – Quick-service chains opened over 2,700 locations in the past year, accounting for nearly 20% of new retail leases (CoStar)

Insight: Quick-service restaurants are dominating new retail leases as value dining demand, a franchise-driven growth model, and easy second-generation build-outs enable rapid expansion despite softer overall restaurant traffic.

U.S. retailers face weakening tourism and cautious consumers – August mall visits fell 4.4% YoY as tariffs and rising prices squeeze spending, while dollar stores gain traffic and sales (CommercialObserver)

Data centers surge to top of REIT buying lists – Holdings jumped 15% YoY to 352 properties in 2024, outpacing retail’s 9% growth and highlighting strong demand for cloud and AI infrastructure (CoStar)

Kroger raised its annual core sales forecast thanks to strong demand for fresh produce and other essentials from cautious Americans cutting back on eating out (Reuters)

Blackstone buys $869M single-tenant lease financing loan portfolio from First Internet Bancorp – First Internet Bank will continue to service the loans (ConnectCRE)

DataBank to raise $1.1B by securitizing data centers in Virginia, Georgia, and New York – The fully leased facilities total 100 MW and 491K SF, highlighting the sector’s growing use of asset-backed debt (Bisnow)

Insight: DataBank’s $1.1B securitization and QTS’s $600M Phoenix ABS financing show how asset-backed debt is emerging as a primary capital source for data centers, as giving borrowers lower costs than corporate bonds and offer lenders collateral and long-term hyperscaler leases that support reliable cash flows.

Salvation Army lists 2.3-acre site in Los Angeles, CA for $100M – Mixed-use parcel near LA Live offers 1.3M SF buildable with no height limit (TheRealDeal)

Milestone Group closes $1.1B Real Estate Investors Fund VI – Targeting value-add multifamily acquisitions in Sunbelt and Mid-Atlantic markets with a focus on discounted, under-managed assets for repositioning (IREI)

Italian-themed bowling and dining chain Pinstripes files Chapter 11 bankruptcy – Closes 10 of 18 locations and seeks a buyer after failing to refinance $143M in debt (Bisnow)

Griffin Funding launches AI-driven underwriting platform – The “LIA” system streamlines non-QM loan qualification by pulling hundreds of guideline pages into a single tool for loan officers (HousingWire)

Insight: Griffin’s LIA acts like an in-house ChatGPT for non-qualified mortgage lending and serves up instant answers built on investor documentation and guidelines, giving loan officers a faster path to accurate approvals and sharper compliance