Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Happy Friday😀 Today we’re seeing higher long-term inflation expectations and a cooling labor market, 401(k) access for CRE managers, and homebuyers gaining leverage. 

📉 Tariffs, Jobs, and Inflation Expectations
Initial jobless claims rose to 226K and continuing claims hit their highest level since 2021, signaling a cooling labor market without mass layoffs. At the same time, long-term inflation expectations climbed to 2.9% and the Fed’s Bostic warned tariffs could anchor higher prices, limiting room for rate cuts in 2025.

🏦 401(k) Access Unlocks CRE Capital
Trump-era reforms are opening the $12T 401(k) market to private equity, real estate, and crypto, giving CRE managers new access to long-duration capital. If adoption scales, this could reshape retail fundraising and drive more inflows to non-traded REITs and core-plus real estate funds.

🏠 Housing Market at a Crossroads
Mortgage rates dropped to a 10-month low and inventory rose 8.5% YoY, improving buyer leverage even as affordability remains strained. Builder permitting fell sharply in key metros, and while sentiment is stabilizing, elevated prices and rates continue to limit homebuying enthusiasm.

30Y Mortgage: 6.55% (-2 bps)

10Y Treasury Yield: 4.25% (+1 bps)

WSJ Prime Rate: 7.50%

FTSE NAREIT Index: 759.97 (+0.39%) 

30-day SOFR Average: 4.34%

Fed’s Bostic currently sees the potential for just one rate cut in 2025, although this could change with more data, even as markets price a 90%+ chance of a September cut 

Long-term inflation expectations rise to 2.9% in July – New York Fed survey shows highest reading since March as households brace for tariff-driven price pressure (Reuters)

US jobless claims rise to 226K – Employers avoid mass layoffs as hiring slows and continued claims hit 1.974M, highest since 2021 (Reuters)

Bostic warns tariff inflation may linger – Atlanta Fed president sees just one rate cut in 2025 as evolving tariffs risk reshaping supply chains and anchoring higher price expectations (Bloomberg)

Harbor Group is under contract to buy five stabilized suburban Boston multifamily communities from REIT Aimco for $740M, totaling 2,719 units built in the 1970s and currently 96% occupied.

• Suburban Boston has added 26,000 renter households since 2018, driven by affordability migration and remote-friendly employment, while restrictive zoning has kept new supply tight
• The portfolio spans multiple Boston submarkets and fits HGI’s strategy of acquiring high-occupancy, mid-vintage product with renovation upside and strong cash flow visibility
• Boston rents outpaced the national average in early 2025, and stabilized occupancy remains above 96%, reflecting durable demand in well-located suburban assets
• Aimco is selling both the Boston portfolio and a $520M Miami portfolio to fund development and redevelopment, aiming to recycle capital into higher-return growth corridors
• The firm has repositioned itself as a more opportunistic REIT, leaning into value creation through ground-up projects rather than holding mature, income-generating assets
• HGI, by contrast, is scaling its exposure to stable metros like Boston, where it already operates, seeing long-term demand tailwinds and favorable supply-demand dynamics

Takeaway: Harbor Group is locking in scale and income in a tight suburban market with upside potential. Aimco is cashing out of core assets to fuel a pivot toward more aggressive development bets, a clear divergence in capital strategy. In any deal, understanding a counterparty’s reasons for transacting is critical because it helps ensure you are not overlooking risks they may already anticipate.

Trump opens 401(k)s to private equity, real estate, and crypto – CRE firms gain access to $12T retirement market (Bloomberg)

Insight: Trump’s order opens the $12T 401(k) market to real estate funds, giving CRE firms access to long-term capital well-suited to illiquid assets, since retirement accounts are built to stay invested for decades. Crypto brings more volatility and regulatory risk, but that is a separate concern/topic. 

Lower mortgage rates and rising inventory are giving buyers more leverage, but weak permitting and cautious sentiment signal lingering affordability challenges

Mortgage rates fall to a 10-month low, home price growth cools, and inventory rises 8.5% YoY – Buyers see more negotiating power, but the window could close quickly as lower rates boost demand (Redfin)

Single-family permitting fell 6.3% in the first half of 2025, led by sharp drops in Jacksonville, San Antonio, and Boston – Builder momentum slows as inventory climbs to a six-year high (Zillow)

Home purchase sentiment edged up in July as fewer buyers feared job loss, but optimism about buying remains low amid high prices and mortgage rates – 46% expect home prices to rise over the next year (Realtor.com)

Mid-sized metros outpace the nation in SFR rent growth, led by Albany’s 3.3% gain – Most top markets remain below the national rent average (GlobeSt)

Yardi Matrix raised its forecast for new multifamily completions by ~3% through 2027 as the pipeline exceeds expectations – Rent growth is slowing despite rising demand (Bisnow)

Office attendance tracking rises to 69% as employers tighten hybrid policies – Enforcement grows and demand shifts toward smaller footprints in top-tier space (CoStar)

Insight: As Fortune 100 employers track attendance and formalize hybrid policies, they’re under pressure to make in-office days worth it. That’s pushing them toward smaller footprints in trophy buildings, where top-tier space helps drive culture, collaboration, and buy-in.

Manhattan’s coworking market shrank by 400K SF in Q2 as the number of coworking spaces dropped by 13 – This marks the first decline since WeWork’s bankruptcy (Bisnow)

Container rates steady despite tariffs – Trans-Pacific prices to the West Coast held at $2,300/FEU for the third week, as shippers show little urgency ahead of the August 7 tariff deadline (FreightWaves)

DesignWorx signs 78K SF lease at Prologis’ 14628 Yorba Avenue in Chino, CA – Packaging company takes full-building, 60-month deal in the Inland Empire (CommercialObserver)

Trump exempts raw copper from tariffs, easing pressure on construction budgets as prices drop nearly 22% – Contractors avoid a major cost spike (Bisnow)

Economic worries and higher prices are pushing Americans to favor short, regional trips over long-distance travel – Retail and travel see softer demand as a result (Placer.ai)

Investors are showing greater risk tolerance for data centers as surging AI demand draws more institutional capital – The sector is seeing increased appetite despite higher risk (IREI)

Tyko Capital lends $358M to Namdar Group for two 27-story, 1,126-unit mixed-use towers in Jersey City, NJ – Projects include office and retail space (CommercialObserver) 

Bank OZK and PGIM Real Estate provide $82M construction financing for Resia’s 464-unit North City Fort Worth, TX project – Eight-story community adds to Resia’s DFW footprint (ConnectCRE)

Paramount Group secures $900M refinancing for 1301 Avenue of the Americas in Manhattan, NY – Proceeds repay $860M loan and fund leasing costs as occupancy tops 97% (GlobeSt)

Greystone provides $166M Freddie Mac refinancing to TRITEC Real Estate and Olayan Group for 388-unit Station Yards mixed-use project in Ronkonkoma, NY – Loan supports second phase of $1.2B development (GlobeSt)

PGIM provides $110M refinancing to Cascade Investment for the 22-story Asher tower in Water Street Tampa, FL – Includes interest-only, fixed-rate loan for mixed-use apartment and hotel component (CoStar)

Nuveen provides $72M refinancing to Asia Capital Real Estate for the 236-unit Adela at MiMo Bay in Miami, FL – Includes $8.9M for upgrades and 14 new units (CommercialObserver)

RMR Group arranges $1B refinancing for Vertex HQ in Boston Seaport – 1.1M SF CMBS loan repays $620M debt and funds leasing, reserves, and cash-out (BusinessWire)

Harbor Group International agrees to buy a five-property, 2,719-unit suburban Boston multifamily portfolio from Aimco for $740M – The deal deepens HGI’s Boston presence as Aimco accelerates asset sales (ConnectCRE)

ECA Capital Limited sells Rodeo Drive retail property in Beverly Hills, CA for over $400M – 28K SF building is leased to Tom Ford, Moncler, and Balenciaga; buyer undisclosed (TheRealDeal)

MG3 Group sells two charter school buildings in Miami-Dade County, FL to BridgePrep Academy for $91M – Sale includes properties in Kendall and Doral, part of a $172M Florida portfolio deal (TheRealDeal)

TPG acquires two Park Avenue South towers in Manhattan for $350M – Deal reflects a strategic bet on high-quality assets in a top-performing NYC submarket (CoStar)

Vornado Realty Trust lists 150 East 58th Street in NYC for $250M+ – 550K SF Architects & Designers Building marketed for conversion or rebranding (TheRealDeal)

Barings and Brennan form a $150M JV targeting national industrial outdoor storage acquisitions – The JV’s first deal is a two-building Denver property as both firms bet on strong IOS fundamentals (GlobeSt)

Rubicon Point Partners held a first close for Fund II, targeting special situation real estate deals across the West Coast with a Bay Area focus – The fund is property-type agnostic (IREI)

Macquarie Asset Management launches Summerland Storage Partners, a self-storage platform targeting diverse assets in key U.S. markets – The team includes former Life Storage executives (IREI)

AllianceBernstein acquires 2100 M Street NW in DC for $20.1M at foreclosure – Former owner Post Brothers defaulted on $78M tied to a stalled office-to-resi conversion (CommercialObserver)