Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Happy early Thanksgiving. Today we’re seeing conflicting signals in housing, steady office momentum driven by strong submarkets, and expectations for multifamily to firm up in 2026.

🏡 Housing Trends Move in Different Directions
Housing data is pointing in different directions as price cuts, modest YoY gains, affordability improvements and AI-driven demand cooling all appear at once. Backward-looking indices are capturing late-summer strength from a drop in mortgage rates while real-time demand is softening from a weakening labor market, which is causing younger and lower-income buyers to step back even as late-summer contracts keep YoY readings positive.

🏢 Office Leads CRE Price Growth in Low-Supply Markets
Office is leading all major CRE sectors with 6.5% YoY price growth as demand firms in cities with thin construction pipelines. Yardi Matrix says shrinking work-from-home rates and rising office-using jobs are tightening vacancies and lifting investment sales while heavily built markets like Austin and Seattle remain oversupplied.

🏘️ Multifamily Investment Strengthens Into 2026
Multifamily capital flows are firming as rental shortages and easing policy uncertainty push investors to bid more aggressively. JLL’s bid-intensity readings and First American’s cap-rate model show stronger pricing ahead as distress resolutions, easier credit and firm renter demand support rates that could move 40 to 60 bps lower.

30Y Mortgage: 6.20% (-12 bps) 

10Y Treasury Yield: 4.00% (-3 bps)

WSJ Prime Rate: 7.25%

FTSE NAREIT Index: 768.08 (+0.73%)

30-day SOFR Average: 4.03%

Kevin Hassett’s rise as the Fed frontrunner pulled the 30-year mortgage rate down 12 bps to 6.20% and the 10-year yield to 4.0% as markets move to price in quicker and larger 2026 rate cuts.

Kevin Hassett emerges as Trump’s Fed chair frontrunner – Advisers say he aligns with Trump’s push for faster rate cuts as the White House narrows candidates and aims to announce a pick before Christmas (Bloomberg)

Fed allies open path for December cut – Powell’s inner circle signals support despite a divided committee and potential dissents as missing data and stagflation worries raise pressure on policymakers (WSJ)

Spending rose just 0.2% in September while consumer confidence fell to 88.7 in November, the second-lowest level in five years – Weak labor markets, affordability pressure and tariff-driven price increases are weighing on household spending ahead of the holidays (FT)

10-year yield drops to 4% as Hassett emerges as Fed frontrunner – Traders ramp up bets on aggressive 2026 cuts and steeper curves as expectations rise that a Hassett-led Fed would deliver larger moves. (Bloomberg)

CRE prices rise 4.2% YoY in October according to the RCA CPPI index – Improved financing conditions lifted investor optimism as office leads all sectors with 6.5% YoY growth despite a 22% drop in deal volume (TheRealDeal)

Midcap deals drive a 28% MoM jump in October CRE activity – $34.6B in transactions closed as $50M–$100M deals accelerated (Bisnow)

U.S. REITs raise $6.35B through Q3 at-the-market programs – ATM issuance jumped 30.9% from Q2 as REITs tapped equity markets more aggressively, with healthcare REITs driving more than two-thirds of proceeds (IREI)

Multifamily leads October CRE bid competition – JLL’s Global Bid Intensity Index shows one of this year’s strongest gains as housing shortages keep multifamily investors aggressive and easing trade-policy uncertainty lifts industrial and logistics bidding (CNBC)

Eric Adams moves to lock in Rent Guidelines Board seats – The outgoing mayor is rushing appointments that could limit Zohran Mamdani’s ability to enact a citywide rent freeze in his first year (Bloomberg)

AI uncertainty cools housing demand – Economists say AI-driven labor weakness is sidelining younger and lower-income buyers while wealthier households keep paying up, creating a K-shaped housing market (Bloomberg)

Insight: Affordability pressure and AI-driven job weakness have emerged as broad economic themes that are now reducing spending in hospitality and retail, from department stores to fast food, as buyers across the income spectrum focus on value. These same pressures are also shaping demand patterns in both multifamily and the housing market overall.

Case-Shiller home price growth slowed to 1.3% YoY in September – Buyers pulled back amid economic uncertainty, giving them more leverage even as Chicago, New York and Boston posted the strongest gains (Bloomberg)

FHFA’s purchase-only House Price Index shows U.S. home prices up 2.2% YoY and 0.2% QoQ in Q3 – Modest national gains with the strongest appreciation in Illinois, New York and the Middle Atlantic while Florida and several Western states post small declines (FHFA)

Pending home sales rose 1.9% in October – Lower mortgage rates pulled buyers back into the market, though a soft labor backdrop and regional weakness in the West continue to cap momentum (Reuters)

Delistings jump 28% in September as sellers refuse low offers – Stale listings and slow demand are pushing homeowners to pull properties off the market, tightening effective supply and propping up prices despite weak buyer activity (Redfin)

Home sellers slash prices more often in 2025 – More than half of homes sold through October needed at least one cut as elevated mortgage rates and weak demand punished overpricing (WSJ)

New builds gain an edge on affordability – Builders are narrowing the price gap with existing homes and using rate buydowns to offer far lower borrowing costs, making new construction more attractive in a soft market (Realtor.com)

Younger buyers regain market share – Households under 40 made up 44% of new mortgages in Q3, their highest since 2000, as easing rates and moderating prices pull long-delayed first-timers back in (Homes.com)

FHFA raises 2026 conforming loan limit by 3.25% to $832,750 – The smaller increase reflects weaker home-price growth as elevated mortgage rates cool demand, with high-cost ceilings set at $1,249,125 (HousingWire)

Insight: It’s a bit difficult to get a clean read on the housing market because several contradictory forces are appearing in the news at the same time. We’re seeing price cuts, affordability improvements, modest YoY price gains, younger buyers gaining share and AI-driven uncertainty cooling demand all at once. The confusion comes from the fact that backward-looking home price indices are still reflecting late-summer contracts that closed in October, which produced modest YoY gains, while real-time demand has softened as AI-driven labor worries push younger and lower-income buyers to the sidelines. Sellers are cutting prices because fall traffic slowed and overpricing is being punished. At the same time, younger households are taking a larger share of mortgages not because the market is strengthening, but because older, higher-equity buyers have stepped back. The result is a market where slight price growth, deeper discounting and uneven demand all coexist and make current conditions harder to interpret.

Market signals point to lower multifamily cap rates in 2026 – First American’s model shows fundamentals support rates 40–60 bps lower as distress resolutions, easier credit and firm renter demand gradually narrow today’s risk premium (GlobeSt)

Midwest cities surge in renter demand – RentCafe’s Q3 tracker shows 11 of the top 30 markets in the region as affordability drives renters to compare more options and act faster in places like Cincinnati, Kansas City and Cleveland (GlobeSt)

Proptech targets multifamily as adoption lag widens – Operators face high fraud costs, outdated infrastructure and rising tenant expectations, driving demand for AI leasing tools and automation across residential portfolios (CommercialObserver)

Multifamily adoption may be slow because operators need clear ROI rather than marginal efficiency gains from proptech tools. Integrating AI into sensitive workflows is also difficult, as shown by RealPage’s rent-setting controversies.

Office recovery hinges on demand outpacing new supply – Yardi Matrix says shrinking work-from-home rates and rising office-using jobs are tightening vacancies and lifting investment sales in cities with little recent construction while heavy development markets like Austin and Seattle remain oversupplied (CommercialObserver)

Amazon ends remote work at its Ring doorbell division – The company is calling employees back to physical hubs and requiring some to relocate (CoStar)

Legora leases 27K SF of Union Square office space in New York, NY – The Swedish legal-AI firm took two full floors at ZG Capital Partners’ 838 Broadway at a $110 PSF ask for its new U.S. headquarters (CommercialObserver)

Global logistics firm DSV leases 219K SF industrial building in Stafford, VA – Matan Companies signed the full-building deal at Crossroads Industrial as it advances plans for a nearby 250K SF logistics project (CommercialObserver)

DICK’S Sporting Goods narrows its visit gap in 2025 – YoY traffic improved from –6.0% in Q1 to –2.6% in Q3 and October visits rose 2.2% YoY as store closures masked underlying momentum heading into the holidays (Placer.ai)

Lambda raises $1.5B for GW-scale AI infrastructure – The Series E led by TWG Global and USIT funds NVIDIA GPU purchases and expansion of Lambda’s AI-optimized data centers as demand for high-power compute accelerates (ConnectCRE)

Naftali Group secures a $465M multifamily construction loan in Miami, FL – Nuveen Green Capital provided $235M in C-PACE financing while Bank Hapoalim supplied $230M in senior construction debt for the 67-story JEM Private Residences tower (CommercialObserver)

Oak Hill Advisors JV secures a $700M office refinance in Chicago, IL – JPMorgan, Bank of America and others co-originated the five-year fixed-rate loan for the 1.5M SF Bank of America Tower at 110 North Wacker (ConnectCRE)

Pebb Enterprises and BH Group secure a $90M mixed-use refinance and construction loan in Boca Raton, FL – City National Bank and Abanca provided the debt for The Eclipse redevelopment at Office Depot’s former headquarters campus (CommercialObserver)

Clarion Partners sells 350K SF Bryant Park office tower at 114 West 41st Street in New York, NY for $133M – AM Management; Eyn Holdings; Axonic Capital bought the 22-story property as MetLife’s $141M loan remains in place (CommercialObserver)

Draper & Kramer buys 263-unit multifamily property in Oak Park, IL for $88M – Willow Bridge Property and AEW sold the 12-story Eleven33 building at 1133 South Boulevard completed in 2019 and 95% leased (TheRealDeal)

Hunt Capital Partners secures $277M LIHTC fund to build and rehab affordable housing – The firm has raised $175.3M so far for Fund 52, which will deliver or preserve 1,540 homes across 18 developments in 10 states (IREI)

Avila Real Estate Capital raises $100M for project-level land development and builder construction-revolver debt – The firm is scaling toward a $1B fund to finance land pipelines and support builder vertical construction (IREI)

AI advances will reshape mortgage underwriting – Tavant’s Kayla Eames says automation and agentic AI will cut processing times to minutes and shift underwriters toward higher-judgment cases while introducing oversight and auditing needs to manage new risks (MortgageOrb)