Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Happy Friday. Today we’re seeing home seller optimism build as listings rise, office visits climb in September, and Walmart join the anti sale-leaseback movement

🏡 Home Prices Find a New Equilibrium
Sellers and builders are growing more confident as listings rise and affordability improves. Asking prices climbed 2% YoY in September to $385K as easing mortgage rates and increased inventory created a more balanced market where buyers have options again and sellers sense momentum returning.

🏢 Office Momentum Builds as AI Drives Rebound
After a brief summer slowdown, national office visits rose in September as companies reinstated in-office mandates and workers settled into fall routines. San Francisco led the recovery with visits up 19% YoY and AI tenants fueling nearly half of new leasing demand, signaling that tech-driven growth is reigniting the city’s office core even as national occupancy remains 26% below 2019 levels amid a lasting normalization of hybrid work.

🛒 Walmart Joins the Anti Sale-Leaseback Movement
Walmart’s $44.5M Norwalk shopping mall purchase is another example of a potential broader sale-leaseback shift, where anchor tenants play defense by going on offense. Walmart joins Publix and Dillard’s in prioritizing ownership to protect their shopping malls, maintain property quality, and secure long-term control over key trade areas.

30Y Mortgage: 6.23% (-4 bps) 

10Y Treasury Yield: 3.95 (-7 bps)

WSJ Prime Rate: 7.25%

FTSE NAREIT Index: 771.64 (+0.24%) 

30-day SOFR Average: 4.18%

U.S. weekly jobless claims fall to 217K for week ending Oct. 11 – Economists say labor market remains in “no hire, no fire” state as continuing claims hold near 1.9M and small business hiring slows (Reuters)

Fed’s Kashkari says economy may be stronger than data suggest – Sees greater risk of labor market weakness than inflation spike and supports two more rate cuts this year (Reuters)

Fed’s Waller backs October rate cut amid labor market weakness – Says tariffs have modest inflation impact while Miran urges deeper easing to offset rising risks from tighter policy and renewed U.S.-China tensions (Reuters)

Fed’s Barkin says consumers remain active but less flush – Notes spending continues amid low unemployment and wage gains, though households are now more selective than during pandemic years (Reuters)

New York bans landlords from using AI to set rents – Governor Hochul signed a law prohibiting algorithmic rent price-fixing after federal scrutiny of RealPage and Yardi, making New York the second state after Connecticut to enact such a ban (GlobeSt)

U.S. home prices rose 2% YoY in September to $385K – Listings jumped 8.1%, surpassing pre-pandemic levels as easing mortgage rates and added supply signal a more balanced housing market (Homes.com)

Insight: One nuance here is that Homes.com tracks median asking prices for active listings, which explains the 2% YoY increase even as closed-sale prices continue to soften nationally.

U.S. homebuilder sentiment hits 6-month high in Oct – NAHB index rises 5 pts to 37 as lower mortgage rates boost optimism, but weak job market and economic uncertainty limit buyer demand (Reuters)

SFR operating margins tighten amid slower rent growth – National rents rose 2.3% YoY in July as oversupply, weaker Sunbelt markets, and new tariffs on steel and lumber raise operating costs (ConnectCRE)

New listings rose 4.1% YoY for the four weeks ending Oct. 12 – Biggest increase in over four months as more sellers test the market, while pending sales fell 1.2% amid high prices and economic uncertainty (Redfin)

Mortgage rates fall 3 bps to 6.27% for week ending Oct. 16 – Tariff uncertainty and the prolonged government shutdown weigh on sentiment as Powell signals a gradual move toward neutral policy and potential rate cuts (Realtor.com)

Wealthy buyers trade ski-in, ski-out homes for luxury golf communities – High-end developments like Park City’s Talisker Club attract affluent homeowners seeking year-round recreation and exclusive amenities (WSJ)

Multifamily construction times shorten slightly in 2024 – Average completion fell to 19.6 months from 19.9 as smaller projects built faster, while the Northeast remained slowest at 23.4 months (GlobeSt)

National office traffic rebounded in September – Visits climbed after August’s dip, showing renewed RTO momentum as corporate mandates and fall routines took hold (Placer.ai)

San Francisco office visits rose 19% YoY in September – National occupancy was 26.3% below 2019 levels, marking the third-busiest month since COVID as new RTO mandates lifted activity (Placer.ai)

AI firms fuel record San Francisco office demand – Tenants sought 7.9M SF in Q3, with AI companies driving nearly half of leasing and demand up 107% YoY (TheRealDeal)

Miami and New York remained top recovery markets – Both metros led the post-pandemic rebound, while Dallas and Atlanta followed with visits 15.4% and 22.9% below 2019 levels (Placer.ai)

U.S. office construction pipeline falls to 16.8M SF in Q3 2025 – Development continues to contract across top markets, with just 41% of space preleased and 61.5% located in suburban areas (Colliers)

Manhattan leads all markets with 3.8M SF under construction – Nashville reports no active projects, signaling that tenant demand is shifting toward existing office inventory (Colliers)

U.S. office occupancy falls 1.3 pts to 54.0% for week ending Oct. 11 – Peak Tuesday reached 64.2%, Washington D.C. dropped 5.1 pts to 59.5%, while Houston, San Jose, and San Francisco posted modest gains (KastleSystems)

Harvey AI leases 93K SF at One Madison Ave in New York, NY – Fortune 500 AI firm signed a 10-year deal with SL Green for the entire sixth floor at $115 PSF, another major tech lease in Midtown South (CommercialObserver)

Teneo renews 47K-SF lease at 280 Park Ave in New York, NY – The global advisory firm signed a 10-year renewal with SL Green at $120 PSF, keeping its full-floor office amid tightening Midtown leasing conditions (CommercialObserver)

Mid-Atlantic manufacturing contracts in Oct as Philly Fed index falls to -12.8 – Prices paid and received rose sharply, signaling lingering inflation pressures as tariff effects feed through (Reuters)

Trans-Pacific freight rates fell 8% for week ending Oct. 10 – Reciprocal U.S.-China port fees deepened trade tensions, pushing West Coast rates to $1,431 per FEU and East Coast to $3,015 (FreightWaves)

Oracle projects $166B in cloud revenue by 2030 – Company targets $225B total sales and $21 EPS as AI infrastructure bookings surge, including $65B in new deals beyond OpenAI (Reuters)

Investors divided over potential AI bubble – 54% of fund managers see valuations overheating as executives from Amazon, IMF, and GIC warn of hype while Goldman and ABB cite sustainable long-term spending (Reuters)

Developers chase “powered land” amid AI boom – Hines and Silver Lake invest in grid-ready sites as energy access becomes a core real estate asset (TheRealDeal)

Meta and Blue Owl close $30B financing for Louisiana data center – Meta will retain 20% ownership in the 4M-SF Hyperion complex as Morgan Stanley arranges $27B debt and $2.5B equity under an SPV structure rated A+ by S&P (Bloomberg)

Google backs $3.2B TeraWulf data center bond – The “Google backstop” guarantees creditor repayment if tenant Fluidstack defaults, driving $10B+ in orders (Bloomberg)

Resident Group lands $114M HUD-backed refinancing for 279-unit Metro Edgewater in Miami, FL – The loan is backed by HUD’s FHA 223(f) program (CommercialObserver)

Jack in the Box sells Del Taco to Yadav Enterprises for $115M – The deal marks a steep drop from its $585M 2022 acquisition as the company refocuses on its core brand and debt reduction (CoStar)

Friedman Capital acquires 153-key Capitol Hill Hotel in Washington, DC for $60M – TPG Real Estate Partners sold the renovated 200 C St NE property for a profit after purchasing it in 2021 for $37.7M (CommercialObserver)

Brixton Capital acquires 272-unit Whisper Creek apartments in Lakewood, CO for $79.5M – Newport Beach-based CWS Capital Partners sold the 2002-built property, with JLL arranging financing and Greystar set to manage operations (TheRealDeal)

BMO to sell 138 branches to First Citizens Bank – Deal includes $5.7B in deposits and $1.1B in loans as BMO plans to open 150 new, mostly California-based branches to refocus on high-growth markets (Bisnow)

Insight: BMO’s strategic pivot aligns with a recent Brick by Brick discussion on Fifth Third’s $10.9B Comerica acquisition for its California and Texas footprint. Similarly, BMO plans to open 150 new branches across high-growth California markets to connect with potential customers and capture deposits, which have become much harder to secure in a higher interest rate environment. 

Walmart acquires 160K-SF Walmart Center in Norwalk, CT for $44.5M – The purchase from Murray & Gaunt Partners marks Walmart’s third retail acquisition since January, extending its push to own and control store-anchored centers (CoStar)

Insight: I usually wouldn’t include this sub-$50M deal, but it highlights a growing retail trend where anchor tenants like Dillard’s, Publix, and now Walmart are acquiring the malls they anchor to control tenant mix, upkeep, and redevelopment. By owning rather than leasing, these retailers protect their brand image, stabilize occupancy costs, and secure long-term control over key trade areas.

Brooklyn developer Louis Greco files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy – The Second Development Services founder cites up to $500M in liabilities amid mounting lawsuits and foreclosures (TheRealDeal)