Key Insights

Trump’s potential rollback of Canada and Mexico tariffs comes as new 25% tariffs on Canadian lumber push prices higher, adding pressure to housing and construction. Meanwhile, weak private job growth signals a hiring slowdown that could point to broader economic cooling

Housing investment continues to decline, with Q4 investor home purchases at their lowest since 2016 and condo investments hitting a decade low, led by steep drops in Florida

Despite a 37% surge in mortgage refinancings as 30Y rates hit 6.73%, inflation and resilient growth could delay Fed rate cuts, keeping borrowing costs elevated

Quick Markets

30Y Mortgage: 6.72% (+2 bps)
10Y Treasury Yield: 4.28% (+2.1 bps)
FTSE NAREIT Index: 806.67 (+0.97%)
30-day SOFR Average: 4.33%

Market Pulse

Trump May Scale Back Canada & Mexico Tariffs – Commerce Secretary Lutnick says a compromise on 25% import tariffs could be announced soon (CNBC)

Private employers added just 77K jobs in February – Well below the 148K estimate, signaling a hiring slowdown amid economic uncertainty (CNBC) 

Lumber prices hit 30-month high – Futures jump 15% YoY as traders brace for a 25% tariff on Canadian lumber (WSJ)

Policy & Industry Shifts

The GSA’s plans for federal building sales and potential agency relocations could dampen demand in D.C.’s office market while reshaping regional commercial real estate dynamics

GSA Pauses Sale of 440 Federal Buildings – After listing 80M sq ft of federal real estate for sale (WSJ)

Trump administration plans to relocate federal agencies out of D.C. – Lease cancellations could depress the local office market (GlobeSt)

Housing & Real Estate Trends

Declining investor home purchases and condo sales signal weakening demand, while mortgage refinancing activity suggests that buyers are responding to lower rates, though broader financial uncertainty continues to weigh on homeowner confidence

US real estate investors bought 47K homes in Q4 – the lowest level for that time of year since 2016, down 3.9% YoY (Redfin)

Mortgage refinancings surged 37% to the highest level since October – boosted by 30Y mortgage rates of 6.73%, a three-month low (Bloomberg)

Investor condo purchases fell 13% YoY in Q4 to the lowest level since 2012 – Florida led declines, with Orlando down 30% (Bisnow)

88% of homeowners are worried about selling their homes – citing financial uncertainty and housing market conditions (HousingWire)

Eviction moratoriums return in LA County – Tenants affected by wildfires can defer rent through July 2026, sparking industry backlash (TheRealDeal)

Financings

$2B Data Center Financing – JPMorgan and Starwood Property Trust will lend $2B to CIM Group and Novva Data Centers to build a Utah data center campus (WSJ)

$363M Hotel Refinancing – JPMorgan provides floating-rate loan to Hotel REIT Braemar Hotels & Resorts to refinance $355M in debt (CoStar)

$180M Student Housing Refinancing – Apollo lends $180M to refinance NYU’s largest dorm, Lafayette Hall (Bloomberg)

$116M Build-to-Rent Refinancing – Adam Tancredi lends $116M to Max Benjamin Partners for 214-home rental development in California’s Paso Robles (ConnectCRE)

M&A

Empire Capital buys two Midtown buildings for $50M – 68% discount from Investcorp’s $157M purchase in 2017 (Bloomberg)

Institutional Fundraising

Institutional capital is increasingly flowing into real estate, with a strong emphasis on residential and industrial assets, signaling confidence in these sectors despite broader market uncertainties

$1.4B Credit Fund – 400 Capital Management closes fourth real estate credit fund (CommercialObserver)

$1.4B Real Estate Commitments – Florida State Board of Administration plans to allocate $1.4B to real estate, prioritizing residential assets (IPE)

$582M Opportunistic Fund - Brasa Capital closed its third opportunistic fund, targeting industrial and residential assets (PERE)

44% of family offices plan to increase real estate allocations – emphasis on residential and industrial sectors (Bloomberg)

Distress Watch

New York City's rent-stabilized apartment sector faces mounting distress as rising costs, restrictive rent laws, and expiring loans push more landlords toward foreclosure

Community Preservation Corp. forecloses on Madison Realty Capital – filed to seize 8 buildings after MRC defaulted on $76M in loans (Bisnow)

Market Watch

Boston multifamily rents rose 2.6% in 2024 – Q4 slowdown and rising vacancies signal softening demand (GlobeSt)