Key Insights

Trump declines to rule out a recession, calling it a transition period for the economy. With 151K payroll gains, 4.1% unemployment, and signs of cooling growth, the Fed may have more room to hold or cut rates as commercial real estate struggles and multifamily vacancies rise.

Trump is considering reciprocal tariffs on Canadian lumber and dairy, which could drive up material costs for homebuilders. Higher prices may add over $10,000 to home construction costs, squeezing margins and potentially slowing new housing supply

With CMA CGM’s $20B investment, Deutsche Bank’s bullish outlook, and strong port activity, America’s industrial sector is set for growth. This will fuel demand for modern warehouses, distribution centers, and port-adjacent facilities, pushing up rents and development in key logistics corridors.

This Week in Real Estate: Key Events & Data

Quick Markets

30Y Mortgage: 6.70% (-9 bps)
10Y Treasury Yield: 4.28%
FTSE NAREIT Index: 792.83 (+0.73%)
30-day SOFR Average: 4.35%

Market Pulse

With a softening labor market, economic uncertainty, and mixed CRE trends, recession risks could push the Fed toward rate cuts, although rising vacancies and slowing construction may weigh on real estate demand and investment

Trump declines to rule out a recession – Sees a transition period to reshape the US economy (WSJ)

US jobs report shows softening labor market — February payrolls up 151K with 4.1% unemployment rate; more job losses expected amid government policy changes (Bloomberg)

Fed Beige Book reports modest growth –– CRE trends are mixed, with slowing construction, struggling office markets, and rising multifamily vacancies in some areas (GlobeSt)

Policy & Industry Shifts

Trump proposes reciprocal Canadian lumber and dairy tariffs – Citing a 250% Canadian tariff on dairy products (CNBC) 

GSA reverses 300 of 1,000 lease terminations –– Federal office downsizing misfired as public-facing agencies were cut without warning, forcing emergency rollbacks (FederalNews)

Residential

Rising homebuilding costs from proposed tariffs, slowing construction, and cuts to affordable housing funding could tighten supply, keeping home prices high even as demand softens

Pending Home Sales Down 6% –– Falling mortgage rates are attracting buyers, but economic uncertainty continues to weigh on the housing market (Redfin)

Tariffs Could Add $10K to Homebuilding Costs –– Builders face higher costs as tariffs hit materials, squeezing margins (WSJ)

Single women make up 20% of homebuyers, surpassing single men (8%) – They typically earn less and make financial sacrifices to afford homes (NAR)

HUD cancels $60M in Section 4 contracts with affordable housing developers – Organizations warn of severe impact on low-cost housing creation (Bisnow)

Office

Rising demand for top-quality offices in New York — Blackstone seeks office investments as Amazon and others hunt for space with more firms returning to in-person work (Reuters)

Industrial

With CMA CGM’s $20B investment, Deutsche Bank’s bullish outlook, and strong port activity, the industrial sector is poised for growth, driving demand for logistics facilities, warehouses, and infrastructure in key markets

CMA CGM pledges $20B investment in U.S. over 4 years — To expand US-flagged fleet, upgrade ports, and create 10,000 jobs in deal with Trump (WSJ)

Deutsche Bank turns bullish on America's industrial sector — Expects recovery, favoring transportation stocks tied to manufacturing growth (FreightWaves)

Port of NY-NJ sees third-best January for containers – 7.9% YoY growth with strong import and empty container volumes (FreightWaves)

Market Mix

Luxury brands investing heavily in NYC and LA retail – expanding flagship stores, securing prime locations, and investing in real estate despite rising rents and limited space (CushmanWakefield)

Financings

$380M construction loan – Savanna secures a $380M construction loan to build a two-tower waterfront apartment complex in Florida's West Palm (TheRealDeal)

$79M bond financing – Los Angeles Housing Authority Board of Commissioners awards Linc Housing $79M in bond financing to build an affordable housing complex in LA’s Lake Balboa (TheRealDeal)

M&A

$120M Waterfront Miami Estate – Businessman Michael Ferro acquired Billionaire Vlad Doronin Star Island estate for $120M (TheRealDeal)

$56M NYC Nursing Home – Pinnacle Group of Hudson Valley acquired a nursing home in Queens for $56.4M (CommercialObserver)

Institutional Fundraising

Blackstone’s new $8B real estate debt fund reflects a bet on rising demand for alternative capital as traditional lenders continue to pull back

$8B real estate debt fund – Blackstone closed its fifth real estate debt fund at $8B to invest in lending, liquid securities, and structured solutions (Bloomberg)