Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Thank you for your continued support! Today, we’re seeing long-end Treasury and mortgage rates rise, while Trump moved to limit institutional SFR buying

📈 Long-Term Rates Reprice Higher
Long-term Treasury yields hit their highest levels since last summer as investors sold bonds amid tariff-related inflation uncertainty and fears of foreign retaliation against U.S. debt following Trump’s Greenland proposal. The 10Y yield climbed to ~4.29%, while the 30Y mortgage rate rose 14 bps back to 6.21%, tightening financial conditions for housing.

🏡 Institutional SFR Buying Targeted
President Trump signed an executive order targeting large institutional buyers of single-family homes, although there is no direct ban on institutions purchasing homes. Instead, the order limits federal agencies and the GSEs from selling distressed or government-owned homes to large investors, restricts Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac financing that facilitates institutional purchases, and calls on regulators to scrutinize coordinated vacancy and pricing strategies.

Treasury yields hit their highest levels since last summer – The 10Y yield climbed to ~4.29% as long-end rates rose on geopolitical risk and global fiscal concerns (WSJ)

Long-term Treasury yields rose as investors sold Treasurys amid tariff/inflation uncertainty and fears of foreign retaliation against US bonds following President Trump’s Greenland proposal.

Tariffs are starting to show up in online prices - Amazon’s Jassy says sellers on Amazon are beginning to pass higher tariff-driven costs to consumers as pre-tariff inventory buffers run out, though demand has held up outside higher-priced discretionary items (Reuters)

Regional banks are re-entering CRE lending – Lower rates are restoring deal economics in 2026; lenders like Regions Financial, PNC, M&T Bank, and U.S. Bancorp expect renewed growth led by multifamily and industrial loans (CoStar)

Trump signs an executive order targeting large institutional buyers of single-family homes – The order directs agencies to limit financing and facilitation of institutional purchases to support owner-occupant demand (Bloomberg & WhiteHouse)

What’s important to note is that the order does not directly ban institutions from buying single-family homes. Instead, it restricts federal agencies and government-sponsored enterprises (Fannie/Freddie) from selling distressed or government-owned single-family homes to large institutional investors, and bars federal agencies and the GSEs from providing financing, guarantees, or securitization that would facilitate institutional purchases. Build-to-rent communities are explicitly excluded from these restrictions.

Other provisions include directing the DOJ and FTC to review substantial acquisitions by large institutional investors in local single-family housing markets for anti-competitive effects, and to prioritize enforcement of the antitrust laws against coordinated vacancy and pricing strategies, including rent-setting algorithms, used in single-family rental markets. The administration has also not yet defined what constitutes a ‘large institutional investor. 

On an initial read, the federal review of substantial acquisition activity and the ban on coordinated pricing strategies for institutional buyers appear to be the most impactful.

Housing affordability is a zero-sum tradeoff – Boosting buying power lifts prices without new supply; restoring 2019 affordability would require ~35% price declines, ~2.65% mortgage rates, or a ~56% income jump that remains politically and economically unrealistic (WSJ)

Home sellers outnumbered buyers by a record 47.1% in December – Buyer leverage skewed sharply toward the Sun Belt as years of elevated construction collided with falling demand, while supply-constrained Northeast and Midwest markets remained comparatively tight (Redfin)

U.S. home prices inched up 0.1% in December – Price growth slowed to 2.2% YoY, the weakest pace since 2012, as buyer pullback spread price declines across more metros despite still-limited supply nationally (Redfin)

Renters ended 2025 with the strongest affordability since 2021 – Slowing rent growth and record-high concessions pushed the typical rent burden down to 26.5% of income as elevated vacancies kept negotiating power firmly with renters (Zillow)

Mortgage rates fell to ~6.06%, the lowest level since September 2022 – Lower borrowing costs are easing the lock-in effect and supporting a gradual pickup in home sales rather than a rapid rebound (Realtor.com)

U.S. climate disasters are driving global insurance losses – Los Angeles wildfires pushed U.S. insured losses above $100B in 2025 (FT)

RealPage cut its 2026 rent growth forecast to ~1.9% due to a weakening labor market – Late-2025 payroll declines and slower hiring weakened apartment demand; several large markets are now expected to see flat or negative rent growth (RealPage)

Affirm pilots BNPL rent payments with Esusu - Select apartment tenants can split monthly rent into biweekly 0% APR installments as rent growth slows and affordability pressures persist in U.S. multifamily. (Bisnow)

Anthropic seeks up to 450K SF office in Manhattan, NY – AI firm behind Claude is looking to expand from ~10K–20K SF at 155 Avenue of the Americas (Bisnow)

Wells Fargo signs 50K SF at Related Ross’ One Flagler in West Palm Beach, FL – Lease establishes new Wealth & Investment Management headquarters and brings 25-story office tower to 100% leased (Bisnow)

Dandy signs 37K SF at Silverstein Properties’ 22 Cortlandt Street in Lower Manhattan, NY – Seven-year lease places dental tech firm in Financial District office building (CommercialObserver)

3PLs dominated big-box leasing in 2025 – Outsourcing lifted 3PLs to 44 of the top 100 industrial leases, pushed total volume to 98.8 MSF, and kept demand concentrated in core hubs like the Inland Empire, Chicago, and Dallas-Fort Worth (CBRE)

U.S. Postal Service opens last-mile delivery bidding to raise cash – USPS is offering access to 18,000+ delivery units to retailers like Amazon as it seeks billions in new revenue (Reuters)

Dollar Tree’s 99 Cents Only lease grab created heavy store overlap – Cannibalization drove sharp traffic declines, making long-term returns dependent on higher-margin multi-price sales in larger boxes (Placerai)

AI risks turning into a bubble without broad real-economy adoption – Microsoft’s Nadella warned that AI must spread beyond big tech and rich countries to deliver durable productivity gains (FT)

PJM moves to fast-track data-center grid connections – PJM Interconnection proposes prioritizing projects that add new on-site generation to meet surging data-center demand without diverting existing power as prices and reliability risks climb (Bloomberg)

OpenAI commits to paying its own energy costs – OpenAI will fund grid upgrades and new generation tied to Stargate data centers so local residents and utility customers do not face higher electricity bills (Bloomberg)

Novartis plans to neutralize U.S. tariff risk by mid-2026 – CEO Vas Narasimhan said expanded U.S. manufacturing and a government agreement should shield the firm after committing ~$23B to domestic production (Reuters)

Roche’s Genentech boosts North Carolina biomanufacturing investment to ~$2B – The expansion deepens U.S. drug onshoring with added capacity and thousands of jobs tied to next-generation therapies (Reuters)

D.R. Horton reported Q1 net income of $594.8M, down from $844.9M a year earlier, as affordability constraints slowed demand and forced the builder to increase sales incentives, particularly mortgage buydowns, which cut into margins. Average closing prices fell 3% YoY to $365,500; elevated incentive levels are likely to pressure Q2 margins despite a recent pickup in traffic tied to lower mortgage rates. 

Invitation Homes buys BTR developer ResiBuilt for $89M – The deal expands Invitation’s build-to-rent platform with fee-based development contracts and future lot options (Bisnow)

Invitation Homes’ move deeper into build-to-rent could not have been timed better when viewed alongside Trump’s recent executive order.

Heitman raises $2B for Value Partners Fund VI – The fund will invest primarily in alternative sectors such as medical office, student housing, senior housing, and self-storage, with selective exposure to multifamily and industrial (Bisnow)

$15.9B CMBS foreclosures now dominate special servicing – Balances jumped 68% YoY as higher rates, valuation pressure, and refi strain push servicers toward enforcement (CommercialObserver)

Retailer Francesca's plans to liquidate and close hundreds of stores – The chain has launched going-out-of-business sales across 45 states as it winds down operations after prolonged post-pandemic pressure (CoStar)

601West buys Bank of America Plaza in Downtown Los Angeles, CA from Brookfield Properties out of receivership – Deal clears a $400M loan default amid ongoing price resets across downtown LA offices (CoStar)

AI in proptech hinges on execution – ROI shows up when firms clean data and embed AI into core workflows instead of standalone tools (CommercialObserver)