Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Thank you for your continued support! In recent news, Trump moved to ban institutional homebuying, affordability is reshaping where Americans are moving, and retail traffic split sharply across shopping center formats.

🏠 Institutional Homebuying Faces Political Risk
Trump moved to ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes to address the housing affordability crisis, despite institutions owning only a small share of total housing supply. Blackstone fell ~6%, Invitation Homes slid ~6%, and American Homes 4 Rent dropped ~4% on fears that a federal ban could pressure the single-family rental model.

🧭 Affordability Is Driving Where Americans Move
According to United Van Lines, affordability and lifestyle overtook jobs as the primary drivers of household moves in 2025; Oregon led inbound migration while flows into Florida and Texas normalized. That same affordability pressure is pushing demand toward Midwest and Northeast metros like Rochester, NY, and Harrisburg, PA, which Realtor.com ranks among the top first-time homebuyer markets due to lower prices, better inventory, and less competition.

🛍️ Retail Traffic Growth Is Splitting By Format
Indoor malls led retail traffic gains in 2025 as the only format to post visit growth in all four quarters. Outlet malls posted annual visit declines despite shoppers’ focus on value, as time costs and e-commerce alternatives reduced the appeal of long destination trips.

U.S. job openings hit 7.15M, lowest level in over a year – JOLTS data show vacancies down from 7.45M in October as hiring slowed across leisure, healthcare, and logistics (Bloomberg)

U.S. private payrolls rose just 41,000 in December – ADP data came in below expectations, pointing to sluggish hiring momentum heading into 2026 despite modest gains in healthcare and leisure (Bloomberg)

U.S. services PMI rose to 54.4 in December, fastest pace in over a year – ISM data showed broad-based expansion led by retail, finance, and hospitality (Bloomberg)

Foreign capital is returning to U.S. CRE in 2026 with a narrower focus – Global investors are targeting data centers, housing, and select office assets while prioritizing basis, submarkets, and replacement-cost discounts over broad sector bets (GlobeSt)

White House moves to ban institutional investors from buying single-family homes – Donald Trump said the administration will block large investors from purchasing additional homes and seek congressional backing (FT)

This news is a big headline, but will a ban on institutional homebuying really have a meaningful impact on housing affordability?

A May 2024 report from the United States Government Accountability Office found that institutional investors, defined as owning more than 1,000 single-family rental homes, tend to concentrate activity in a handful of markets such as Phoenix AZ, Jacksonville FL, and Atlanta GA. Nationally, they own ~3% of the single-family rental stock and less than 1% of total U.S. housing supply - most rental homes are still owned by small mom-and-pop landlords.

And Sun Belt housing markets are actually under pressure from an oversupply driven by elevated builder activity.

That said, the study did find that institutional investment contributed to higher home prices and rents in the short term, particularly in markets with concentrated activity. Over longer periods, however, the research suggests those inflationary effects tend to diminish.

Blackstone sinks nearly 6% as Trump targets institutional homebuying – Blackstone fell almost 6% after dropping as much as 9.3%; Invitation Homes slid about 6% and American Homes 4 Rent fell roughly 4% on fears of a ban on institutional single-family home purchases (Bloomberg)

Newsom plans crackdown on corporate homebuying in California – Gavin Newsom will push to restrict private equity and hedge funds from buying single-family homes at scale (Bloomberg)

White House lines up up to $10B in immigration facility development – U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued an IDIQ contract to pre-approve developers for large new builds and major renovations, prioritizing turnkey construction tied to immigration enforcement funding (Bisnow)

Americans shifted toward smaller markets in 2025 – Migration data from United Van Lines showed affordability and lifestyle overtaking jobs as the main drivers; Oregon led inbound moves while Florida and Texas saw migration normalize (CNBC)

Best first-time homebuyer markets for 2026 skew Midwest and Northeast – Realtor.com ranked Rochester NY, Harrisburg PA, and Granite City IL at the top, driven by affordability and inventory advantages (Realtor.com)

Mortgage rates started 2026 near 6% – The 30-year fixed rate is hovering around 6.0% and is expected to stay rangebound through 2026 as inflation risks limit further declines (Zillow)

Office demand faces less near-term AI risk – Vanguard’s research shows AI-exposed occupations outperformed on job growth and real wages, suggesting productivity gains rather than widespread white-collar job losses so far (GlobeSt)

Investment and insurance firm Starr leases 275K SF across 12 floors at 343 Madison Avenue in Midtown Manhattan, NY – The 20-year lease anchors BXP’s 930K-SF office tower, which is set for 2029 delivery (ConnectCRE)

Industrial tenants are shifting to regional hub strategies – According to Colliers, companies are moving away from single coastal distribution centers toward smaller regional facilities to improve resilience and speed (GlobeSt)

Amazon has reset our expectations around delivery speed, forcing other e-commerce players to match shorter delivery windows and adopt the same logistics playbook. As a result, e-com increasingly prioritizes speed, compressing fulfillment timelines and pushing tenants toward smaller, last-mile infill locations that are closer to end consumers.

Power is becoming a primary site selector for logistics real estate – According to Prologis, grid constraints and rising energy needs are pushing tenants to prioritize facilities with on-site generation, microgrids, and scalable power over traditional location advantages alone (GlobeSt)

U.S. factory orders fell 1.3% in October – The drop was driven by a sharp decline in aircraft orders, while orders for core capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.5% (Reuters)

U.S. online holiday spending hit a record $257.8B in 2025 – Adobe Analytics data showed sales rose 6.8% YoY despite slower growth, driven by deep discounts and $20B in buy-now-pay-later usage (Reuters)

Indoor malls posted full-year visit gains in 2025 – The only mall format to grow traffic in all four quarters, signaling a shift from recovery into sustained growth (Placerai)

Open-air shopping centers led during the holidays – Q4 visits rose 2.0% YoY and December traffic increased 1.5% as dining and convenience drove seasonal trips (Placerai)

Outlet malls lagged all formats in 2025 – Annual visits declined, including a 1.1% drop during the holiday season, as time costs outweighed discounted pricing for value-seeking shoppers (Placerai)

$11.8B REIT Healthpeak plans senior housing REIT spin-off – Healthpeak Properties will create Janus Living, which will own 34 communities totaling 10,422 units; Healthpeak will retain a controlling stake (Bisnow)

Rithm Capital’s Newrez invests in HomeVision to expand AI underwriting – The platform is automating income, asset, and credit analysis across a $878B servicing book (Inman)