The Brick Breakdown

Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Today we’re seeing continued rising economic anxiety, home improvement loans being packaged into bonds, and further softening in the residential market. 

The Brick Breakdown

📉 Investor caution builds as uncertainty deepens
The U.S. dollar hit a 3-year low and Americans lowered their wage expectations for new jobs, underscoring a shift in economic sentiment. Market instability, tariff volatility, and Fed tensions are driving defensive behavior across sectors.

🛠️ Remodeling boom hits bond markets
Home improvement loans are being bundled into bonds at record pace, with $2.5B securitized in Q1 alone. As homeowners stay put due to high prices and rates, lenders are capitalizing on the renovation wave through asset-backed markets.

🏠 Residential market loses steam heading into spring
Seller concessions hit near-record levels and inventory reached a 5-year high in Q1, signaling softening buyer demand. Residential investor sentiment continues to fall as affordability concerns, rate uncertainty, and insurance costs weigh on activity.

This Week in Real Estate: Key Events & Data

Quick Markets

30Y Mortgage: 6.94% (+7 bps)
10Y Treasury Yield: 4.41% (+5 bps)
FTSE NAREIT Index: 733.34 (-0.48%)
30-day SOFR Average: 4.35%

Market Pulse

The falling dollar and declining wage expectations point to weakening confidence across both global markets and the U.S. labor force, as Trump's Fed pressure and trade tensions deepen economic uncertainty

U.S. dollar hits 3-year low – Trump’s Fed threats and tariff turmoil spook global investors, with ICE Dollar Index down to 97.92 (CNBC)

Americans lower wage expectations for new jobs -- NY Fed finds 'reservation wage' dropped to $74K in March, as older workers and men adjust outlook amid economic anxiety (Reuters)

Policy & Industry Shifts

Rising renovation bond volumes and revived federal housing bills highlight a shift toward stay-in-place affordability solutions, as high rates and limited inventory discourage mobility.

Home improvement loans gain traction in bond markets -- $2.5B in Q1 securitizations puts 2025 on pace to beat last year’s $5.8B record, as more homeowners renovate rather than move (Bloomberg)

Democrats revive Housing for All Act -- California lawmakers reintroduce bill to boost funding for HUD programs and affordable housing, aiming to counter Trump administration cuts (HousingWire)

Residential

Rising seller concessions and falling investor sentiment reflect growing unease in the housing market, as affordability pressures, tariffs, and economic uncertainty make buyers and investors more hesitant

Seller concessions rise amid buyer caution -- 44.4% of U.S. home sales included concessions in Q1, near record high, as listings hit five-year peak and affordability concerns grow (Redfin)

Residential investor sentiment drops again -- RCN index falls for second straight quarter as recession fears, tariffs, and rising insurance costs weigh on buying plans (GlobeSt)

Office

Federal downsizing and valuation resets are reshaping the office market, with an 8M SF net loss driven by GSA lease cuts and $397M in value erased from Nashville towers. Still, signs of selective reinvestment persist as JPMorgan expands in San Francisco, betting on targeted urban recovery

Federal terminations drive 8M SF office loss -- Q1 office absorption turns negative as DOGE-led cuts slash 7.5M SF of GSA leases; inventory drops 11M SF amid conversion boom (Bisnow)

JPMorgan expands San Francisco footprint -- Bank to lease 65K more SF at 560 Mission St. and invest $3.8M to boost downtown recovery, though its office footprint remains smaller than pre-2020 (CoStar)

Nashville office towers lose $397M in value -- Reappraisal reflects post-pandemic demand shifts and recent distressed sales dragging down downtown assets (BizJournals)

Industrial

Trans-Pacific shipping volatility is accelerating, with blank sailings up nearly fourfold and China exports down 20% year-over-year as tariffs disrupt trade flows and slash carrier capacity

Trans-Pacific blank sailings surge -- China export volumes drop 20% YoY as tariffs drive near-4x spike in canceled voyages and sharp capacity cuts (FreightWaves)

Market Mix

Amazon’s AWS is pausing select colocation leases as it reassesses space needs after rapid expansion, even as it maintains a strong U.S. pipeline with 23 GW of planned data center capacity

Amazon pauses some data center leases -- AWS halts undisclosed colocation deals amid post-buildout 'digestion,' though U.S. pipeline remains robust with 23 GW in long-term plans (CommercialObserver)

McDonald’s visits dip 2.6% but beat QSR peers -- Chipotle traffic jumps 4.5% despite a 4.2% decline in fast-casual visits (Placer.ai)

Financings

Affinius Capital lends $149M to refi 389-unit San Diego tower -- Diamond Realty’s 41-story 800 Broadway opened in 2024 with luxury amenities and retail space (CommercialObserver)

Mesa West lends $134M to refi Georgia Rambler Athens student housing – The 750-bed complex near University of Georgia opened in 2024 (REBusinessOnline)

Thorofare funds $74M bridge loan for Jacksonville, FL apartments – Trevato Development refinances 90% leased, 304-unit Enso community with floating-rate debt (REBusinessOnline)

Peachtree Group provides $68M loan to refi new AC Hotel in Seattle – Nexera Capital plans to stabilize and sell the 200-room Downtown property near Amazon HQ (CommercialObserver)

Ladder Capital provides $58.7M bridge loan for San Antonio, TX apartments– Lynd Group refinances 360-unit San Antonio apartment complex (REBusinessOnline)

M&A

Building & Portfolio M&A

Veris to fully acquire $430M Jersey City Urby tower – Deal gives REIT full control of 200 Greene St. near NYC transit (Bloomberg)

Tishman Speyer buys 220-unit Montclair, NJ apartment for $96.2M -- Deal marks developer's latest multifamily expansion in New Jersey (CoStar)

Rexford sells vacant LA South Bay warehouse for $53M -- Buyer plans cold storage conversion to support food logistics as REIT posts record leasing but slows acquisitions (CommercialObserver)

Institutional Fundraising

Institutional capital is accelerating into underserved real estate sectors, with Kennedy Wilson and Tokyu Land launching a $200M JV targeting multifamily and industrial debt, while senior housing draws fresh investment amid tight lending and historically low construction levels

Kennedy Wilson, Tokyu Land launch $200M real estate investment JV – New platform will fund U.S. multifamily and industrial projects via preferred equity and mezzanine loans (CoStar)

Institutional capital floods senior housing -- Demand surges as banks retreat, with occupancy at 88% and construction at 16-year low (Bisnow)

Distress Watch

Silber’s 6,300-unit portfolio heads to auction -- Multifamily and office assets across six states to be sold after investor's fraud conviction tied to $119M Fannie Mae scheme (Bisnow)