Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Happy Friday. Today, we’re seeing January US pending home sales unexpectedly fall, Walmart flagging consumer weakness, and Zillow partnering with Google to expand AI-driven home-buying guidance.

📉 Pending Home Sales Fall As Remodeling Gains
US pending home sales fell 0.8% in January versus a 1.3% expected gain, as tight inventory and ~6% mortgage rates kept contracts down 0.4% YoY despite improved buyer qualification. NAHB expects mortgage rates to remain above 6% in 2026, with single-family construction down ~3% and multifamily starts falling ~5%, setting up remodeling to outpace new construction as homeowners tap equity and stay put.

🛒 Walmart Flags Consumer Strain
Walmart flagged a hiring recession and rising consumer delinquencies, and forecasted softer-than-expected 2026 earnings as shoppers prioritize value amid labor and trade uncertainty. In hospitality, economy and extended-stay operator Choice Hotels reported U.S. RevPAR fell 3% in 2025, as weaker domestic demand pressured results and reinforced signs of uneven consumer momentum.

🤖 Zillow Expands Into AI Search
Zillow partnered with Google to launch home-buying guidance inside NotebookLM, where users can ask housing questions and receive answers grounded in Zillow content with direct citations. Portals are embedding AI deeper into the home-buying journey, with recent rollouts including Redfin’s AI home search and Zillow’s OpenAI-powered search and listing tools, as platforms compete to control emerging AI-driven discovery channels.

JPMorgan study shows tariff payments by midsize US firms up 316% from pre-election levels as duties triple YoY – Costs largely passed to businesses and consumers while trade deficit remains near $900B (FT)

US jobless claims fall to 206K in largest drop since November – Layoffs remain low but continuing claims rise to 1.87M, signaling slower re-employment as labor demand softens (Bloomberg)

Multifamily leads CRE lending as spreads compress to 152 bps over Treasurys in February, down from 166 bps in May 2025 – Office remains widest at 223 bps, reflecting persistent vacancy and workplace uncertainty despite modest tightening (GlobeSt)

HUD proposes rule requiring all household members in federally assisted housing to prove legal status – Change could force mixed-status families off aid and trigger ~100K evictions including ~37K children pending 60-day comment period (Bisnow)

Remodeling expected to outpace new construction in 2026 as homeowners tap equity and stay put – NAHB expects mortgage rates to remain above 6% with single-family construction down ~3% and multifamily starts falling ~5% amid tariffs and policy uncertainty (Homes.com)

US pending home sales fall 0.8% in January to 70.9 vs 1.3% expected gain – Tight inventory and ~6% mortgage rates keep contracts down 0.4% YoY despite improved buyer qualification (Reuters)

January home prices rose 1.1% YoY to $422,921 as buyer’s market capped growth – Pending sales hit lowest level since November 2023 and existing-home sales declined 3.6% MoM (Redfin)

30-year mortgage rate falls to 6.01%, lowest since September 2022 – Softer CPI and lower 10Y yield boost spring demand outlook but limited supply risks reigniting price competition (Realtor.com)

Office REIT stocks fall ~16% YoY even as leasing turns positive in 2025 – AI-driven job fears and heavy free rent and tenant improvement costs delay real cash flow despite rising occupancy (Bisnow)

Public Storage signs 119K SF headquarters lease at Craig Hall’s Hall Park office building in Frisco, TX – Self-storage REIT relocates corporate HQ from Glendale, CA as leadership transition and PS4.0 strategy rollout begin (TheRealDeal)

New York City Department of Environmental Protection signs 155K SF lease at Innovo Property Group’s 24-02 49th Avenue building in Long Island City, NY – Department of Citywide Administrative Services arranged 20-year deal to relocate Queens offices and lab facility (CommercialObserver)

Industrial manufacturing visits fall YoY even as ISM PMI rebounds to 52.6% – Weather disruption and calendar effects mask improving production sentiment (Placerai)

Retail prices up 2.4% YoY as of November 2025 with asset sales rising 20% in 2025 – Tight supply and 4.8% availability support rent growth and renewed investor demand (CushmanWakefield)

Grocery-anchored and experiential retail drive durable cash flow with inflation-linked leases – Limited new construction and mark-to-market upside create compelling yield premium versus other asset classes (CushmanWakefield)

CMBS markets reopen for retail with multibillion-dollar financings from Blackstone and Ala Moana – Debt appetite signals renewed lender confidence in occupancy stability and income durability (CushmanWakefield)

E-commerce distribution visits rise 2.6% YoY and brick-and-mortar traffic climbs 1.8% in January – Digital and physical retail are expanding in parallel rather than cannibalizing each other (Placerai)

Consumer demand ends 2025 with solid momentum across retail channels – Early-2026 softness in manufacturing reflects temporary disruption rather than structural slowdown (Placerai)

Southern Co raises five-year capex 7% to $81B through 2030 due to surging data center and industrial power demand – The utility has already contracted 10 GW of hyperscaler load and is fielding requests for another 75 GW of potential projects across its Southeast footprint (Reuters)

Utilities surge 6.8% YTD as AI power demand fuels record highs for NextEra, Duke, and Constellation – Analysts warn extreme buying frenzy is stretching valuations as investors rotate from tech into regulated utilities seen as safer AI exposure (Bloomberg)

Walmart flags “hiring recession” and rising consumer delinquencies in cautious 2026 outlook – Retail bellwether sees uneven demand as shoppers prioritize value amid labor and trade uncertainty (Bloomberg)

Texas Roadhouse posts 8.2% same-store sales growth to start Q1 despite softer Q4 comps – Strong early demand signals resilient consumer spending even as beef costs and confidence pressures weigh on margins (Bloomberg)

Economy and extended-stay operator Choice Hotels’ U.S. RevPAR fell 3% in 2025, pressuring overall performance as ADR and occupancy slipped – International markets including Canada and France posted strong growth, helping offset domestic softness (CoStar)

Aritzia acquires iconic LA fashion brand Fred Segal and signs 29K SF lease at 8100 Melrose Ave in Los Angeles, CA – Retailer bets on experiential flagship strategy to revive brand and fuel U.S. growth (CoStar)

RXR forms $500M separate account with North Carolina Investment Authority to deploy structured equity into $2B+ residential projects – Partnership seeds with $64.25M investment in 327-unit Phoenix redevelopment and targets long-term housing demand trends (GlobeSt)

Twain Capital Partners and InterVest form bridge lending JV focused on predevelopment loans – Partnership targets short-term capital for high-quality commercial real estate projects across select U.S. markets (IREI)

American Signature Furniture moves toward liquidation after Chapter 11 filing – 90 stores and distribution centers across 16 states hit market as housing slowdown and tariffs pressure sales (CoStar)

Orion Properties secures three-and-a-half-year extension on $355M CMBS loan backed by 19-property suburban office portfolio – REIT keeps 4.971% rate through August 2030 in exchange for cash sweeps and higher reserves; portfolio valuation dropped 18% to $455M (CommercialObserver)

CBL & Associates Properties moves to hand over 1.1M SF Arbor Place Mall at 6700 Douglas Boulevard in Douglasville, GA to lender ahead of $85.5M JPMorgan Chase loan maturity – REIT negotiating foreclosure or conveyance as part of broader effort to shed troubled retail debt (Bisnow)

Zillow partners with Google to launch home-buying guidance in NotebookLM – AI tool delivers answers grounded in Zillow content with direct citations as platform extends reach into emerging AI search channels (Zillow)

In Zillow’s case, their home-buying guides are embedded into a featured notebook within Google’s NotebookLM, an AI research tool that generates answers grounded only in specific source materials and provides citations, so users can ask housing questions and receive responses sourced directly from Zillow’s content rather than generic AI outputs.

Recent AI rollouts include Redfin’s AI home search and Zillow’s OpenAI-powered search and listing tools, as portals race to embed AI deeper into the home-buying journey.

@properties launches renovation financing program with Notable offering up to $50K per home for pre-listing upgrades in Chicago, IL – Sellers repay at closing with no upfront fees as brokerage joins Redfin and Compass in turnkey-focused strategy (TheRealDeal)