Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Thank you for your continued support! Today we’re seeing weak home price gains and Cava guide to strong 2026 same-store sales growth.

🏠 Home Prices Post Weakest Full-Year Gain Since 2011

U.S. home prices rose 1.3% YoY in December, according to the Case-Shiller index, marking the weakest full-year gain since 2011, as tight entry-level supply continues to support prices. A frozen housing market is pressuring manufacturers as weak existing-home turnover slows remodeling activity and big-ticket purchases, while elevated mortgage rates and soft sentiment have reduced appliance and building-product sales.

🥗 Cava’s Growth Is Price-Led as Traffic Slips

Cava beat Q4 earnings expectations and guided to 3% to 5% 2026 same-store sales growth, driven by 1.7% price increases and favorable mix; Chipotle, by contrast, reported a 1.7% full-year same-store sales decline and guided to flat 2026 comps. Cava, however, saw a 1.4% decline in traffic, and, as we have seen from Chipotle, growth driven primarily by price increases and mix cannot persist indefinitely without underlying volume support.

Two Fed officials signal no rush to cut rates as inflation remains above 2% target and labor market stabilizes – Collins and Barkin say policy is mildly restrictive and well positioned, with cuts likely later in 2026 only if inflation shows clearer signs of cooling (Reuters)

Fed’s Cook warns AI may lift structural unemployment and limit rate-cut response – AI investment boom could push neutral rate higher short term, forcing tradeoffs between inflation and job losses. (Reuters)

Fed’s Goolsbee says cuts possible later in 2026 if inflation cools but warns against betting on productivity – With inflation still above target, AI investment risks overheating economy before supply improves (Reuters)

Fed’s Waller downplays AI job fears, says technology unlikely to upend labor market – Calls AI a manageable productivity tool and says Fed will adopt it cautiously with system-wide guardrails (Reuters)

Fed’s Bostic warns AI could lift structural unemployment that rate cuts cannot offset – Says Fed should not ease policy to fight structural job losses and must keep focus on inflation still about 1% above target (Reuters)

Fed officials are signaling no rush to cut rates, with inflation still about 1% above target and policy described as mildly restrictive and well positioned. On AI, they are divided, as some officials warn it could lift structural unemployment or overheat the economy, while others downplay labor risks and see it as a manageable productivity boost.

Trump touts falling mortgage rates and renews call for permanent investor ban – Says payments are down ~$5K as rates fell from 7.04% to 6.01% and urges Congress to restrict institutional buyers of single-family homes (Realtor.com)

Senate Democrats propose stripping tax breaks from firms owning 50+ single-family rentals, countering Trump plan to bar investors with 100+ homes from additional purchases – Competing proposals set up fight over institutional ownership as bipartisan housing supply package nears final negotiations (CNBC)

New Jersey unveils housing plan expanding down payment aid and pushing zoning reform – Proposal targets transit hubs, dead malls and missing-middle homes to address 224K-unit affordable housing shortage (Homes.com)

U.S. home prices rose 1.3% YoY in December, weakest full-year gain since 2011 – Inflation has outpaced price growth since mid-2025, eroding real home values as 6.2% mortgage rates weigh on affordability (WSJ)

FHFA home prices rose 0.1% MoM and 1.8% YoY in December, slowing from November – Tight entry-level supply is supporting prices even as residential investment contracts for fourth straight quarter (Reuters)

Frozen housing market is hitting manufacturers as weak turnover slows remodeling and big-ticket purchases – Elevated mortgage rates and soft sentiment have cut appliance and building-product sales, though firms see upside if existing-home sales rebound (WSJ)

Nearly 14% of U.S. home purchase agreements were canceled in January, highest January rate on record – Buyer’s market conditions and economic uncertainty are driving more deals to fall through (Redfin)

Half of Americans say they struggle to pay rent or mortgage, up from 44% last spring, with Gen Z hit hardest at 67% – Many are cutting restaurants and vacations, while some report skipping meals or delaying medical care to keep up with housing costs (Redfin)

Fanatics signs 210K SF lease at Meadow Partners’ 95 Morton Street in Manhattan, NY – Sports betting and merchandise platform takes entire eight-story, 210K SF West Village office building as sole tenant (CommercialObserver)

Industrious signs 23K SF lease at HSR Corporation’s 386 Park Avenue South in Manhattan, NY – Coworking firm will occupy entire 18th and 19th floors, marking its 35th New York City location (CommercialObserver)

Planet Fitness plans 180 to 190 new clubs in 2026, matching last year’s pace, as it backfills bankrupt big-box space – Chain targets teens and GLP-1 users, ending 2025 with 20.8M members across ~2,900 locations (CoStar)

AES signs 20-year power deal with Google for new Texas data center – Agreement includes co-located clean energy generation as utilities race to meet AI-driven power demand (Reuters)

Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners has teamed up with EQT in a bid to acquire AES, a major renewable power supplier to hyperscalers like Microsoft.

Southern California data center capacity set to nearly double from 335 MW in coming years – Rising hyperscaler demand is driving development despite high energy costs and strict regulatory oversight (CommercialObserver)

Cava guides 3% to 5% 2026 same-store sales growth above 3.16% estimates – Healthy bowl demand stays resilient despite selective 1.7% price hike (CNBC)

In Q4, Chipotle reported a 1.7% full-year same-store sales decline and guided for flat comps in 2026. 

Cava, by contrast, is guiding toward same-store sales growth due to modest ~1.7% price hikes and favorable mix; they still saw a 1.4% traffic dip. The chain still has pricing power and value perception supporting check growth. What’s notable here is that same-store sales growth is not due to more visits from customers, and declining traffic along with Chipotle’s recent struggles tell us that growth driven primarily by price increases and mix cannot persist indefinitely without underlying volume support.

Home Depot posts 0.4% Q4 same-store sales growth, beating flat expectations, as pro contractor demand offsets DIY slowdown – Company maintained 2026 outlook of flat to 2% comp growth despite frozen housing market and tariff uncertainty (Reuters)

American Homes 4 Rent posts 4.3% YoY single-family rental revenue growth despite vacancy pressure from elevated Sun Belt build-to-rent supply – Company plans to cut 2026 deliveries to 1,900 homes, ramp asset sales, and use pricing incentives to lift occupancy above 96% (HousingWire)

Barings, Homestead Capital launch $300M agriculture credit partnership – Asset-based finance program expands farm loan origination and gives Barings greater access to agricultural private credit opportunities (IREI)

Optimal Blue launches AI-powered Virtual Economist forecasting tool for mortgage capital markets – Platform integrates pricing, hedging, benchmarking, and scenario modeling to deliver real-time rate and volume predictions (HousingWire)