Hello Brick Brief readers, 

Thank you for your continued support! Today we’re seeing Zillow forecast modest housing growth for 2026, Nvidia push back on AI bubble concerns with another strong data-center quarter, and value retailers continue to thrive as consumers shift harder toward off-price.

🧱 Zillow’s Outlook Points to Firmer 2026 Housing
Zillow is forecasting 1.2% home value growth and 4.09M existing home sales over the next 12 months as lower rates help unlock demand, which aligns its view more closely with NAR’s mild optimism than Fitch’s flat stance. Zillow also sees a clear rent divergence ahead as single-family rents rise 2.2% while multifamily rents edge 0.1% lower under pressure from heavy new apartment supply.

⚡ Nvidia Sees no AI Bubble
Nvidia pushed back on AI bubble concerns after beating Q3 expectations as data center revenue grew 66% YoY, underscoring how quickly AI infrastructure spending is accelerating. On energy, Dominion is moving to secure its position in Northern Virginia data centers and is exploring a deal to buy NOVEC, while PJM, the largest grid operator in the US, is warning that AI facilities will drive nearly all 32 GW of load growth through 2030 and could create supply shortfalls as early as 2027.

🛒 Target Struggles as Value Spending Shifts Toward Off-Price
Target missed Q3 sales expectations and cut its profit outlook as choppy spending and weak discretionary demand continue to weigh on traffic; the retailer plans to reset its footprint and spend $5B in 2026 to roll out larger stores, accelerate remodels, and reconfigure fulfillment roles across its network. On the other hand, discount retailer TJX is capturing that same value-driven demand as trade-down spending continues to lift off-price traffic.

30Y Mortgage: 6.36% (-2 bps) 

10Y Treasury Yield: 4.14% (+2 bps)

WSJ Prime Rate: 7.25%

FTSE NAREIT Index: 753.83 (-0.87%)

30-day SOFR Average: 4.09%

Odds of the Fed holding rates at 375–400 have climbed to 67.2% as traders price in a more cautious committee after missing jobs and inflation data widen the divide over a December cut.

Fed minutes show a divided committee on December policy – Many officials opposed another cut as missing jobs and winflation data increased caution and lowered odds of a year-end move (Reuters)

BLS cancels October’s jobs report after the shutdown blocked household-survey data – October’s unemployment rate won’t be published and payrolls will be merged into November’s release on Dec 16 (Reuters)

Greystar agrees to pay $7M to settle rent-collusion claims in nine states – The country’s largest apartment operator exits a major RealPage antitrust suit and accepts limits on how it uses rental data (Bisnow)

U.S. housing hits its strongest buyer’s market since at least 2013 with 36.8% more sellers than buyers in October – Both buyers and sellers are pulling back as high housing costs and economic uncertainty keep demand at the second-lowest level on record (Redfin)

Zillow forecasts home values to rise 1.2% over the next 12 months – Existing home sales are expected to reach 4.09M in 2025 and strengthen further in 2026 as lower rates unlock demand (Zillow)

Insight: Zillow’s forecast adds another useful comparison point to the NAR and Fitch Ratings outlooks for 2026. Zillow expects home values to rise and sales to firm as lower rates unlock demand, which puts its view closer to NAR’s slightly positive stance than Fitch’s flat forecast. A few months ago, Zillow held to a 6.5% year-end mortgage rate call even as rates drifted toward 6%, so I am inclined to believe them here.

Zillow projects single-family rents to rise 2.2% over the next 12 months – Multifamily rents are expected to dip 0.1% as new apartment supply pushes vacancies higher (Zillow)

Northeast and Mid-Atlantic lead U.S. apartment occupancy – Tight supply and record-high renewal rates near 62% keep availability low (RealPage)

Warren Buffett’s PacifiCorp utility settles with 1,434 Oregon wildfire plaintiffs for $150M – The company still faces over 1,500 remaining claims tied to the 2020 Labor Day fires (Bloomberg)

TCW, McGuireWoods and RBC lease nearly 200K SF at Mitsui Fudosan’s 1251 Avenue of the Americas in New York, NY – Mitsui completed the deals following a $100M reinvestment in the tower (ConnectCRE)

Drug maker Novartis will build a new manufacturing hub in North Carolina as part of its $23B U.S. investment plan – The expansion adds 700 direct jobs and boosts domestic production by adding biologics, sterile packaging and solid-dosage facilities (Reuters)

Port of Los Angeles handled 848,431 TEUs in October as 2025 volume runs 2% above last year – Tariff-driven frontloading is expected to pull November and December volumes lower (FreightWaves)

Target plans to spend $5B on store improvements and new openings in 2026 – The retailer is boosting capex by 25% to roll out larger-format stores, accelerate remodels and reconfigure fulfillment roles across its national real estate footprint (CoStar)

Insight: Recent brands that have had great success with remodeling their stores to reenergize their brand and appearance are Burger King and Macy’s, and Starbucks is also pursuing a similar strategy as it focuses on third spaces. It remains to be seen whether Target can get the same lift because its issues may stem more from alienating certain customer demographics and losing their support rather than outdated stores.

Gap and Urban Outfitters see Q3 visit growth after weak early 2025 – Gap traffic rose 1.4% YoY and Urban Outfitters gained 2.4% as both chains benefited from late-summer momentum and stronger back-to-school demand (Placer.ai)

PJM, the largest US power grid operator, is advancing a plan to manage surging data-center interconnection requests – Demand from AI data centers is set to drive nearly all 32 GW of PJM load growth through 2030, raising supply-shortfall risks as early as 2027 (Reuters)

International visitation to the U.S. fell 6.3% in 2025 – The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to reverse the slump by driving over 1 million foreign arrivals and lift next year’s inbound travel by nearly one-third (Reuters)

Hotel transactions remain stalled despite improving debt markets – REIT executives say buyers still hesitate as weak cash flow, uncertain RevPAR and macro volatility make underwriting difficult (CoStar)

Nvidia beat Q3 earnings and revenue expectations and raised its Q4 sales outlook as data center revenue rose 66% YoY. CEO Jensen Huang pushed back on AI bubble concerns, telling investors, “There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point, we see something very different.”

TJX beat Q3 earnings and revenue expectations and raised its guidance as value hunting and trade down spending continued to fuel strong off price demand even in a tougher economic backdrop.

Target missed Q3 sales expectations and cut its full year profit outlook as choppy spending and a sharper shift toward value continued to weigh on traffic and discretionary categories. 

Lowe’s beat Q3 earnings expectations but slightly missed on revenue as it posted year over year sales growth. Management said the U.S. homeowner remains financially healthy even though rising uncertainty and the daily news cycle are making customers more cautious about large projects. 

Insight: When we compare Lowe’s results with Home Depot’s weak home improvement results and fiber cement siding manufacturer James Hardie reporting steadier housing demand, the contrast suggests Home Depot is dealing with customer-level pressure rather than a broader housing downturn. The housing market is not performing as poorly as Home Depot implied yesterday, which points to softness concentrated in its shopper base rather than a sectorwide decline.

Jay Group secures a $320M construction loan for a 590-unit multifamily project at 97 West Street in Brooklyn, NY – G4 Capital Partners provided the financing as Jay moves forward with the Greenpoint waterfront development (TheRealDeal)

Pearl Properties secures $173M construction financing for the 267-unit Harper Square multifamily tower in Philadelphia, PA – Barings and Counterpointe funded the package as Pearl moves forward with what is expected to become the city’s tallest residential building (TheRealDeal)

RXR provides a $71M bridge loan for the 241-unit Adler Montford Park multifamily project in Charlotte, NC – Taft Family Ventures refinanced the newly delivered property at 1351 East Woodlawn Road in RXR’s first multifamily bridge deal in the state (CommercialObserver)

Capstone Equities secures a $59M acquisition loan for 12-story office building at 205 West 28th Street in Manhattan, NY – Savanna Asset Management and 1823 Partners provided the debt for Capstone’s purchase of 100,000 SF 28&7 property (CommercialObserver)

North River Partners and Amzak Capital Management provide a $53M construction loan for 312-unit Regatta multifamily project in Fort Pierce, FL – Alva Stone Group secured the financing for the development at 2190 South Jenkins Road (CommercialObserver)

Affinius Capital provides a $67M refinance loan for two-building industrial warehouse project in Lathrop, CA – Phelan Development and LaSalle Partners refinanced 847,000 SF Lathrop II at 17995 Murphy Parkway through Affinius’ debt platform (CommercialObserver)

Apartment operator Morgan Properties closes its $354M acquisition of multifamily-focused Dream Residential REIT – The deal privatizes the REIT and adds 3,300 units across Texas, Ohio, Kentucky and Oklahoma (IREI)

Dominion explores a deal to buy NOVEC to deepen its grip on Northern Virginia’s data center power market – The acquisition would add a cooperative that serves dozens of data centers in Data Center Alley where demand is set to surge (Bloomberg)

National developer Lincoln Property acquires on-campus student-housing builder Capstone Development Partners – The deal expands Lincoln’s university-affiliated development and management platform amid rising student-housing consolidation (Bisnow)

Alo buys the La Peer office property at 8942 Wilshire Boulevard in Beverly Hills, CA for $90M – Breevast sold the 1990-built full-block building at a 16% discount to its 2019 price; Alo will use it as a new headquarters (CoStar)

Ares Management sells industrial facility at 5102 Industry Avenue in Pico Rivera, CA for $63.8M – Robertson Properties Group bought the 2002-built distribution center at roughly the same price Ares paid in a 2021 sale-leaseback (TheRealDeal)

Comras Company buys a retail assemblage on Lincoln Road in Miami Beach, FL from Morgan Stanley for $140M – Comras is planning a NoLi redevelopment after securing a $117M loan from Acore Capital (TheRealDeal)

Institutional capital is returning to real estate – Cottonwood Group CIO Mark Green says easing denominator-effect pressure is bringing investors back into structured and opportunistic strategies (IREI)

U.S. mortgage delinquencies ticked up to 3.99% in Q3 2025 – FHA loans show the most strain with seriously delinquent rates above 10% as softer labor markets and rising household costs pressure borrowers (GlobeSt)

NYC rent-stabilized landlords face severe operating strain as insurance costs surge 150% since 2019 – Owners are cutting other spending to offset rising maintenance and utility expenses, which has driven a jump in housing-code violations (Bloomberg) 

Chetrit Organization restructures a $714M CMBS loan for Yorkshire Towers and Lexington Towers in Manhattan, NY – Rialto Capital and mezzanine lenders approved a modification that brings the loan current and extends maturity for the 804-unit portfolio (CommercialObserver)

Brookfield-owned office tower at 333 South Grand Avenue in Los Angeles, CA hits the market after a $506M loan default – The offering includes 1.4M SF Wells Fargo Center North Tower and 63K SF Halo retail atrium, which are 61% and 35% leased (TheRealDeal)